While the summer hasn’t wrapped up quite yet, some are already looking ahead to winter.
In fact, the Farmer’s Almanac has already released its projections for the winter season.
The publication, which has issued projections since its founding in the 1800s, says its outlooks are based on a“combination of sunspot cycles, lunar position, tidal pull, and historical pattern weighting” to make predictions. However, the almanac does not disclose its exact methodology.
With the forecast released, what might winter look like across Chicago and the suburbs?
The Chicago area and the broader Great Lakes region will likely see temperatures around normal for most of winter. The Farmer’s Almanac said the region could see “cold, snowy periods,” and it has predicted both frequent clipper systems and sudden cold snaps.
The accuracy of the predictions is up for debate.
A 2010 study from the University of Illinois found the forecasts’ accuracy was around 52%, roughly the same odds as a coin flip. The Farmers Almanac claims accuracy of around 80%, and said that while independent reviews put “actual accuracy somewhat lower, it’s still meaningfully above chance.”
A strengthening El Niño pattern in the Pacific Ocean could play a major role in shaping winter weather across the Chicago area.
As the pattern becomes stronger, the Climate Prediction Center believes there is a staggering 97% chance it will last into the spring of 2027.
El Niño patterns don’t always have the same effects on weather in the Midwest, but according to the University of Illinois, they have historically been linked to warmer and drier winters.
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