As tens of thousands of Moroccans entered the Spanish exclave of Ceuta last week, Europe’s mainstream politicians looked to outbid the far right in terms of their knee-jerk reactions.
Some echoed calls to kick Spain out of the Schengen zone, while others accused the government of boosting illegal migration when it offered residency to those already in the country.
The long-term impact on electoral fortunes is yet to be seen – but adopting far-right talking points might unwittingly have strengthened the very forces that could take down Europe’s centre-left and centre-right parties.
Studies have long pointed to the futility of accommodating far-right views on immigration, while suggesting that there is no evidence it enhances the appeal of mainstream parties. Instead, voters are more inclined to reject the copycats.
Several European countries head to polls next year, and it is pretty obvious that the far right will exploit the dramatic images of hordes of Moroccan men crossing illegally into Spanish territory.
The first major test of how the Ceuta crisis will affect European politics will be witnessed in France in April, when voters decide on a new president.
Marine Le Pen, the leader of the far-right National Rally, has been allowed to run despite being convicted of embezzling EU funds, allegedly used to pay the salaries of her bodyguard and personal assistant, among other party staff. Her party is strongly anti-immigrant.
The images from Spain have therefore arrived as an unexpected political gift for Le Pen.
France’s top far-right figure, Marine Le Pen, centre, is looking to benefit from the migrant crisis affecting Spain (Photo: Telmo Pinto/Getty)Federica Genovese, a professor of political science at the University of Oxford, said that like all immigration crises, Ceuta will give ammunition to the far right. “It will continue being weaponised by the European forces questioning more integration,” she told The i Paper.
Even so, Genovese asserted that a lot can happen between now and 2027, and much will depend on the media coverage. Images ofhundreds of thousands of refugees from the Middle East crossing through the Balkans into Europe in late 2015 gave right-wing parties a potent tool, which was used to startling effect in the 2016 Brexit referendum in the UK.
“The big question is how much the media will entertain the logic of ‘invasion’, which keeps helping the far-right narrative,” Genovese said.
Tainted with the charge of stealing public money, Le Pen has sought to turn every issue into evidence of state failure – from air-conditioning shortages in public-service buildings during the heatwave to a lack of preparedness, equipment and civil protection in the face of the wildfires.
It’s easy to see her using Ceuta to burnish her credentials as France’s saviour from illegal immigrants, and to ride that wave to power in April. “In 2027, we will stop this madness by reserving Schengen free movement for EU nationals,” she recently posted on social media.
Le Pen’s position has evolved over time, revealing a politically expedient approach rather than a principled stand. In the 2017 presidential campaign, she explicitly campaigned on leaving the EU. In 2019, she indicated the goal was to change the EU from within and not leave Schengen.
About 100 Moroccan migrants died while crossing into Ceuta on 30 July. An estimated 75,000 people entered the city, with the vast majority returning home within days (Photo: Antonio Sempere/AP)Former French prime minister Édouard Philippe is Le Pen’s main opponent and offered perfunctory support for Spain, before blaming Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez for causing the crisis.
“It is not acceptable for one country to decide on its own to carry out mass regularisations that create a pull factor for the entire continent,” he posted on X, echoing Le Pen’s line.
“I will propose that this model be completely overhauled,” he added.
The latest migrant crisis to hit Europe has once again shown how easily mainstream parties succumb to amplifying the rhetoric of the anti-immigrant and Eurosceptic far right.
Denmark’s Prime Minister, Mette Frederiksen, who leads the centre-left Social Democratic Party, called on the EU to “consider all options” against Spain, “including a suspension of Schengen co-operation”, while Manfred Weber, a German politician and leader of the biggest centre-right grouping in the EU Parliament, added his voice to the growing chorus that said the Ceuta crisis was a “direct consequence” of Sanchez’s earlier move.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, leader of the hard-right political group Brothers of Italy, lashed out at Spain’s prime minister and suspended air and sea travel with the country.
But her response should also be seen as an attempt to throw off her main domestic rival, former army general Roberto Vannacci, who leads a new far-right party, Futuro Nazionale, which is busy leveraging the Ceuta crisis.
Failure to fact-check
Meanwhile, mainstream parties are notably failing to fact-check the far-right’s more incendiary claims.
Moroccans do not automatically gain access to the Schengen area if they enter Ceuta. They still need to show proper documents before entering mainland Spain.
In 2021, around 8,000 Moroccans entered the exclave. Spain managed to deport most of them in a short period of time. A vast majority of the estimated 75,000 Moroccans who entered Ceuta last week went back within days.
The far right has ignored these facts, which is unsurprising. But for the most part so have mainstream European parties. The question is whether they will continue borrowing talking points from the far right, or if they attempt to move beyond the heated, more populist rhetoric.
On Tuesday, as 22 EU member states called for an emergency meeting to discuss the crisis, a message of solidarity with Spain was finally issued, with Ireland’s justice minister Jim O’Callaghan, who chaired the meeting, saying that migration required a “united European response”.
That may help to lift some pressure off the country for now, but if anything the last week has revealed deep divisions that might galvanise the continent’s far right as elections near.
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