It goes without saying that California can’t replace the federal government. But as the largest and most economically prosperous state in the country, its position is consequential. As companies try to parse the signal from the noise and determine the future of climate policy and demand for clean technologies, the federal government is just one indicator. Leaders now need to interpret a range of signals from governments moving in different directions. And California makes the case better than any other state that climate policy will continue in the U.S.
There was never any question from the outset of the second Trump Administration that it would take a hostile approach to states with aggressive climate policy. Almost immediately, the administration pulled back climate funding that had been directed to states. And it successfully pursued a reversal of the federal waivers that allowed California to enforce its own vehicle emissions standard.
But nowhere has the pushback been stronger than in California. Before Trump even took office, California Governor Gavin Newsom promised to offer its own policies to incentivize electric vehicle adoption if Trump nixed the tax credit passed under his predecessor—a policy that the state finalized late last month. California has also continued to push through a range of other climate related regulations. And the state says it will sue the federal government over its deals to pay energy companies for stopping their offshore wind development. (In some areas, like the state’s cap-and-trade program, California has softened its approach to account for affordability concerns while leaving the core of the policy intact).
For an executive tasked with anticipating and responding to climate policy, the regulatory patchwork within the United States has created a tiny needle to thread. Companies will continue to build products for the California market while also satisfying the current administration. But California continues to incentivize the development of new products and, perhaps, offers a better long-term signal than vacillations at the federal level.
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