As top quarterbacks and talented teams abound, the 2026 college football season should be outstanding. For an outlook, the Opta supercomputer has run thousands of simulations to compile an FBS Top 25 with TRACR, projected win totals and playoff potential.
Can you hear the rumble coming? It’s getting louder.
Welcome back to college football.
Below, you’ll find the FBS Top 25 teams in the country as ranked by TRACR (Team Ranking Adjusted for Conference and Roster), Opta Analyst’s opponent-adjusted projection system. You’ll also find the projected win total out of 12 games for each team as well as a “CFP Potential” rating. (Explanation here: It’s not a percentage rank, but a projected resume assessment on a 1-to-100 scale.)
Added in are some numbers and players to watch for with each of the teams. You’ll notice two things here: One, TRACR really likes the SEC and Big Ten (no doubt, of course), with 20 of the top 25 teams hailing from the two most powerful leagues. Two, the model expects the difficulty of those leagues to mean a good chunk of losses even for the top programs. Note that the only projected 11-win team in the rankings is Notre Dame, which plays a tough schedule but doesn’t quite have to go through either of those gauntlets.
2026 FBS Top 25 TRACR Rankings
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (Big Ten)
TRACR: 30.2 Projected Wins: 10.1 CFP Potential: 99.89TRACR’s top seven has a good chance to match (in some combination) the preseason AP Top 25 Poll. Any of these teams should have a real shot to win the whole thing, starting with the Buckeyes. You understand the deal here: Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith form the best QB/WR duo in the country, the rest of the offense is overflowing with talent, and the defense will need to figure things out on the fly but should have plenty of reinforcements after losing three of the top 11 picks in the NFL Draft.
Ohio State is involved in four of the eight games that match teams in the preseason TRACR Top 10.2. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Independent)
TRACR: 28.6 Projected Wins: 11.2 CFP Potential: 99.90The Irish were left out of the CFP last year, but their typical regular season runs anywhere from 9-3 to 12-0, and the schedule stacks up favorably for them to land on the high end. Of their many strengths, the secondary is probably the greatest. Cornerback Leonard Moore is one of the small handful of best returning players in the sport, and Christian Gray and others join in for an elite set of corners. Safety Adon Shuler has 27 starts for the Irish and will anchor a group that allowed just a 35% passing success rate last season.
3. Oregon Ducks (Big Ten)
TRACR: 24.7 Projected Wins: 9.8 CFP Potential: 98.28If there’s a worry here, it’s that Oregon struggled with downfield playmaking last season, when several key receivers, including 2024 starter Evan Stewart, were sidelined by injuries. This year’s group should be much healthier for quarterback Dante Moore. The defensive line looks like the best in the country with all four starters back, including Matayo Uiagalelei and Teitum Tuioti off a combined 69 pressures last season.
4. Indiana Hoosiers (Big Ten)
TRACR: 22.8 Projected Wins: 9.6 CFP Potential: 96.83The 16-0 Hoosiers face an “only downhill from here” situation. Still, another nine- to 11-win season looks possible, assuming coach Curt Cignetti remains the best in the business at plugging and playing via the NCAA transfer portal. New QB Josh Hoover, from TCU, will need to button up some turnover problems. His 4.70% pickable pass rate was the third worst among regular Big 12 starting quarterbacks last fall.
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12 months ago Taylor Bechtold5. Miami Hurricanes (ACC)
TRACR: 22.2 Projected Wins: 10.1 CFP Potential: 97.39The Hurricanes are set to parlay their national runner-up season into another excellent team. There are some huge losses here, particularly two starting offensive tackles and two superstar edge rushers gone from last year’s lineup. But QB Darian Mensah coming across the conference from Duke could be an upgrade on Carson Beck, he’ll have great skill position talent around him, and Mario Cristobal has recruited so well on both lines that it’s hard to worry.
6. Georgia Bulldogs (SEC)
TRACR: 22.0 Projected Wins: 9.3 CFP Potential: 93.11Once again, you can ask reasonable questions about whether Georgia’s passing game will develop like the players’ recruiting ratings suggest. Gunner Stockton may not be that guy behind center, and Zachariah Branch plays in the NFL now. But the ’Dawgs once again pack a bunch of on-paper talent onto their offense, and we can still take it to the bank that Kirby Smart will have one of the best defenses in the country.
7. Texas Tech Red Raiders (Big 12)
TRACR: 21.6 Projected Wins: 10.8 CFP Potential: 98.56The Red Raiders are essentially running it back with the same strategy but different people from last season. Assuming QB Will Hammond gets healthy and plays anywhere near his potential, the Red Raiders should at least avoid a drop-off from Behren Morton’s performance last year. The defense is loaded with elite line transfers, much as it was last season. Edge rushers Adam Trick from Miami (OH) and Trey White from San Diego State will key the effort here, but the Red Raiders should also have an excellent interior.
8. USC Trojans (Big Ten)
TRACR: 20.0 Projected Wins: 8.8 CFP Potential: 80.56Most people around college football think this is a do-or-die year for Lincoln Riley. If he goes down, he’ll go down fighting with what should be his deepest and physically competitive USC roster yet. Watch for sophomore receiver Tanook Hines, who takes the mantle from last year’s Biletnikoff Award winner, Makai Lemon. Quarterback Jaden Maiava has Heisman Trophy upside, like many of Riley’s QBs if all goes well.
9. Texas Longhorns (SEC)
TRACR: 19.9 Projected Wins: 8.2 CFP Potential: 72.83Did the Longhorns fix the offensive line? It was ugly last year, as the Longhorns surrendered a 40% pressure rate (the Power-4 conference average was 33.7%). It’s easy to still believe in QB Arch Manning, and he’ll have all the skill-position talent in the world around him, but the Longhorns really need to block better.
10. Alabama Crimson Tide (SEC)
TRACR: 19.6 Projected Wins: 8.6 CFB Potential: 77.61The best addition the Tide hopefully made over the offseason was wide receiver Ryan Coleman-Williams morphing back into something like what we saw in 2024. That year, as a true freshman, he was a legit peer to Ohio State’ Jeremiah Smith and appeared to be the future of the position. By the Tide’s brief playoff run last year, Coleman-William was essentially a No. 4 wide receiver. Who will he be this season?
11. Utah Utes (Big 12)
TRACR: 17.9 Projected Wins: 9.7 CFP Potential: 84.67This season will be the ultimate test of how much of Utah’s culture is simply in the walls at this point. Coach Kyle Whittingham and a handful of the program’s best players and key assistants are at Michigan. Most pressingly, an entire offensive line full of all-conference players is gone. The Utes have recruited the position well and have their highest-rated high school recruit ever coming in to play tackle this year amid a class of portal additions. But will QBs Byrd Ficklin and Devon Dampier enjoy the same protection they did last year?
12. Michigan Wolverines (Big Ten)
TRACR: 17.4 Projected Wins: 8.2 CFP Potential: 62.17This one is all about quarterback development. Bryce Underwood by no means had a terrible true freshman season, and it’s worth noting he was playing in an offense with just one interesting wide receiver, then-freshman Andrew Marsh, and in a program that now appears to have been less than stable last year. Still, Underwood looked like a normal true freshman QB would look if thrown into his position. How much more will he and coordinator Jason Beck generate this year? The Wolverines’ upside depends on the answer.
13. Ole Miss Rebels (SEC)
TRACR: 17.3 Projected Wins: 7.9 CFP Potential: 55.33For all the Rebels lost when Lane Kiffin tried to raid the program on his way out the door, it’s worth focusing for a moment on what Ole Miss kept. Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss is an obvious Heisman contender, and so is running back Kewan Lacy, who was a star last season despite Ole Miss’s underlying efficiency numbers not looking that good. The Rebels added a veritable harvest of interesting transfer wide receivers and also could get a breakout from five-star redshirt freshman Caleb Cunningham. The defense is less certain, but it at least has two anchors back in All-SEC tackle Will Echoles and versatile outside linebacker Suntarine Perkins.
14. Washington Huskies (Big Ten)
TRACR: 16.7 Projected Wins: 8.3 Playoff Potential: 54.78Admittedly, this is the team that TRACR seems most aggressive about heading into the season. In fact, most observers will expect Washington not to be quite this good. What does the computer see? Proven talent at quarterback, for one thing. Demond Williams Jr. averaged nearly 7.3 yards on 50 designed carries last year, making him the most-useful running QB in the Big Ten, while also providing solid passing numbers. Expect a reloaded offensive line from both the portal and prep recruiting to pay some dividends this season.
15. Texas A&M Aggies (SEC)
TRACR: 16.6 Projected Wins: 7.6 CFP Potential: 41.28Will the downfield passing game develop behind QB Marcel Reed? It’s the same question this season as last season, when the Aggies had a nice offense but eventually ran into trouble in the CFP because they could not reliably push the ball down the field. As ever, there’s encouraging scuttlebutt about Reed, but we’ll have to see it on the field. Mike Elko’s defense will again be one of the best in the sport.
16. Oklahoma Sooners (SEC)
TRACR: 16.5 Projected Wins: 7.5 CFP Potential: 37.56Will John Mateer look more like the QB from before his midseason surgery on his throwing hand or after? If the answer is the former, the Sooners can make the CFP again and even win a game or two this time. The defense will always be good under Brent Venables and returns most of its key players from last year.
17. BYU Cougars (Big 12)
TRACR: 16.5 Projected Wins: 8.9 CFP Potential: 66.17Freshman QB Bear Bachmeier was one of the surprises of the season last year and played quite well in just about every game except the Cougars’ two biggest ones against Texas Tech. His 79.7% well-thrown ball rate led the Big 12, and he paired it with very nice sack and pickable-pass numbers. The defense will have one of the best front sevens in the country, as is now custom for the Cougars.
18. LSU Tigers (SEC)
TRACR: 16.2 Projected Wins: 7.90 CFP Potential: 44.44Admittedly, trying to put this LSU team into a computer projection is difficult because the Tigers will be almost completely new. The combination of an ugly 2025 season, Lane Kiffin’s track record, and a hugely expensive roster overhaul just makes these guys challenging to project. Anything from seven wins to a national championship seems within the realm of possibility.
19. Tennessee Vols (SEC)
TRACR: 15.95 Projected Wins: 7.8 CFP Potential: 42.5True freshman QB Faizon Brandon controls the upside here. Though it’s likely too much to ask for the prized rookie to lead a deep playoff run, the Vols have a nice and fairly proven supporting cast around Brandon. The Vols have 14 starters back, and the defense falls under the care of highly regarded coordinator Jim Knowles. The linebackers, led by all-conference star Arion Carter, ought to be elite.
20. Missouri Tigers (SEC)
TRACR: 15.2 Projected Wins: 7.9 CFP Potential: 40.22Quarterback Austin Simmons lost his job to Trinidad Chambliss at Ole Miss but isn’t far removed from being one of the buzziest incoming starters in the country entering last season. We’ll see what coach Eli Drinkwitz can get out of him. The offensive track record here is strong, but defense is a fair question after losing all 11 starters under coordinator Corey Batoon, including some likely irreplaceable players in defensive end Damon Wilson II (transferred to the Miami Hurricanes), and end Zion Young and linebacker Josiah Trotter (both in the NFL). The schedule gods don’t smile on this team as there’s Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Texas, Georgia and Oklahoma.
21. Vanderbilt Commodores (SEC)
TRACR: 15.0 Projected Wins: 7.9 CFP Potential: 38.44Five-star freshman Jared Curtis is the most celebrated recruit in the history of the program. It remains to be seen how long it will take him to blossom into his final form, but he’s as exciting a replacement as possible for Diego Pavia. The defense has major front-seven turnover but will benefit from an experienced, talented secondary. Watch safety transfer Ricardo Jones, who picked off an ACC-best six passes at Clemson last year.
22. South Carolina Gamecocks (SEC)
TRACR: 14.7 Projected Wins: 7.6 CFP Potential: 32.50Another aggressive computer pick for the FBS Top 25, with the Gamecocks coming off a disastrous 4-8 season in which they didn’t protect QB LaNorris Sellers. He’s back and remains a fascinating prospect, because when he’s not getting sacked, he’s great. Edge rusher Dylan Stewart (25 pressures last year) is an All-American. Receiver Nyck Harbor is perpetually interesting, even though the production at this point may never be coming. Shane Beamer needs a lot more developmental success stories this year. He’s leaning on offensive coordinator Kendal Briles to help get them on that side of the ball.
23. Penn State Nittany Lions (Big Ten)
TRACR: 14.5 Projected Wins: 8.6 CFP Potential: 49.78It’s a near-total import for new coach Matt Campbell, but the offense will have a high floor thanks to skill and continuity. Quarterback Rocco Becht has each of his five favorite targets from Iowa State, including a ready-made tight end tandem in Ben Brahmer and Gabe Burkle that should be among the sport’s best right away. The defense lost six all-conference players but still has some continuity, including former interim coach Terry Smith back mentoring the defensive backs.
24. Iowa Hawkeyes (Big Ten)
TRACR: 13.9 Projected Wins: 7.9 CFP Potential: 31.67The Hawkeyes’ offensive efficiency rose considerably last year with one-year QB Mark Gronowski. A legit quarterback battle now leaves the offense’s fate uncertain, but you know Iowa will continue to avoid turnovers and be among the class of the sport on defense and special teams. Running back Kamari Moulton will again be very busy. The secondary lost a handful of stars but will probably replace them.
25. Auburn Tigers (SEC)
TRACR: 11.3 Projected Wins: 6.7 CFP Potential: 7.06Not that a six- or seven-win season would thrill the locals, but Auburn should at least be more fun to watch this year. The upside depends on how USF quarterback transfer Byrum Brown adjusts to a much higher level of play. The defense can’t be that bad given the returning and portal talent in the fold. The best player is inside linebacker Xavier Atkins, an All-American last year.
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Big Ten, SEC, Notre Dame Flex Their Muscle in the FBS Top 25 TRACR Rankings Opta Analyst.
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