The impending Aug. 5 impactor is the truck-sized spent upper stage of a Falcon 9 rocket. In 2005, the rocket boosted two privately owned landers into orbit around the moon, before leaving its upper stage in an elliptical orbit around Earth, according to OrbitalRadar.com.
The initial impact flash of the collision — which will last less than a second and be hidden on the sunlit side of the moon — will likely be invisible to casual skywatchers, according to one of the new studies. The brightest estimates for the impact put it at 20 times dimmer than Saturn. The resulting crater likely won't be visible from Earth, as the study estimates that the hole is relatively small and shallow — about 90 feet (27 meters) wide and up to 16 feet (5 m) deep.
The plume will hang above the lunar surface much longer than the flash — for up to 400 seconds, or close to seven minutes; during this time, it will scatter sunlight toward Earth. Even then, the plume will be too faint to be observed with the naked eye, William Jo, a graduate research assistant at the University of Texas at Austin and co-author of the second study, told Live Science in an email. Viewers will need a good backyard telescope to see it.
"Where the science is"
In particular, he said, folks in South America and continental North America — where it will be night, with the moon high above the horizon — will have the best chance of seeing it, although you will need at least a 4-inch (10 centimeters) telescope.
Related storiesHowever, Jo was less optimistic. "I don't think it would be an easy task for an amateur astronomer," he said, but if they know exactly where to point their telescope and tackle atmospheric refraction, they might see the plume. Nonetheless, he urged well-equipped observers to try observing the plume, as that is "where the science is."
Previous collisions of human-made objects on the moon have likewise led to some major scientific insights. For example, the 2009 crash of a Centaur rocket's upper stage was analyzed by NASA's Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing Satellite mission, which revealed subsurface ice near the lunar south pole. As a result, the lunar south pole is now considered the most coveted location for moon missions that aim to establish a permanent human presence on Earth's satellite.
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