Could Black voters change their minds about Abdul El-Sayed?
The big question is why that is.
Instead, Hutchings said, Black voters are likely following cues from trusted members of the party establishment, like Representative Jim Clyburn, a senior member of the Congressional Black Caucus who endorsed Stevens. “I know what it takes to energize Democratic voters. I know she has what it takes to energize Democratic voters, and we need that,” Clyburn said alongside Stevens at a Teamsters hall in Detroit on July 24.
There’s a “disconnect,” Hutchings said, between the fact that Black voters often embrace the “most leftist racial and economic policies in the party,” yet also often vote for the more moderate, establishment candidate. But his answer to that contradiction is simple: Black voters, like all voters, “are frequently not familiar with the actual platforms of the candidates.” Instead, they pay attention to crucial endorsements.
Some Black voters could also be put off by progressive candidates who speak too adamantly against the Democratic establishment, explained Christopher Towler, a political science professor at California State University, Sacramento, and the director of the Black Voter Project. “A lot of progressive candidates who follow the [Senator Bernie] Sanders mold and are trying to break away from the party have to be very careful about alienating Black voters,” he said. “Many Black voters, especially the ones who vote in primaries, associate the Democratic Party with civil rights gains.” Criticizing the party and its establishment too adamantly could backfire, he explained.
“Black voters are very strategic and practical with their votes, even in primaries,” said Towler. “If there’s not a candidate that they’re not completely in love with … they’re going to vote for who they think will win the election.” It’s a shrewd cost-benefit analysis focused on avoiding a Republican victory at all costs.
Meanwhile, Stevens surrogates have pushed narratives that El-Sayed is at odds with prominent Black political figures like Michelle Obama and Kamala Harris. Another United Democracy Project–funded mailer features a photo of Michelle Obama and quotes El-Sayed calling her work on childhood obesity as “uninspired” and “ineffectual.” Though the ad aimed to paint El-Sayed as a misogynist, Towler said that it could hurt him among Black voters, as well.
Whoever wins Tuesday’s primary will need Black voters to propel them to a victory against Republican Mike Rogers in November. “You need to really focus on protecting the Black community from Trump and MAGA Republicans and the GOP’s agenda, which has become more and more anti-Black and focused on rolling back the racial progress that this country has made since the civil rights era,” said Towler, offering advice for whoever wins the primary. Black voters tend to be skeptical of big policy promises, Towler added. He says candidates should focus on stopping the GOP, “and then we can start to talk about what type of policy we can provide.” That contrasts with El-Sayed’s campaign slogan: “Money out of politics, money in your pocket, Medicare for All.”
Outside Washington
Other (i.e., non-Michigan) stories to watch in Tuesday’s primaries
In Virginia, four different Dems—Adam Dunigan, Mo Seifeldein, Michael Duffin, and Lorena Bruner—are challenging incumbent Representative Don Beyer, in another race without much polling. Meanwhile, Democrat Eugene Vindman will find out who his Republican opponent will be in the competitive November race for the 7th congressional district, once represented by Abigail Spanberger.
Elsewhere:
David Dayen at The American Prospect looks at the private equity firms and life insurance companies whose fortunes are increasingly tied to the AI bubble—with potentially expensive consequences for taxpayers in the event of a bailout. For other reading that will definitely not help your anxiety: Try The Washington Post’s data-filled feature on law enforcement officials using Flock cameras to stalk women.A coalition of climate advocates, watchdog organizations, and other groups on Monday denounced the Securities and Exchange Commission’s plan to “rescind its 2024 climate disclosure rule”—a move that would “undermine transparency in capital markets” and help risk-exposed companies avoid important disclosures.
On Wednesday at 1 p.m., the Roosevelt Institute hosts a Zoom panel on “What Social Security’s Shortfall Is Really Telling Us About the Economy.” Panelists include Kathryn Anne Edwards, Kate Bahn, Bradley Hardy, and Betsey Stevenson.—Heather Souvaine Horn
In Closing
Interview by Indigo Olivier
A: My primary focus right now is on ending the disastrous Iran war and on preparing the U.S. for a multipolar world, and the world for a non-unipolar America.
A: After decades of animosity and mistrust, it isn’t simply a policy shift that is needed to resolve the tensions, but a paradigm shift. A fundamental rethinking of the U.S.’s own interest, its image of the other side, and its fundamental assumptions about what the other side wants and is willing to give up. At the same time, the enmity essentially runs on autopilot with a path dependency that renders any serious rethinking very difficult.
A: It is difficult to be happy or proud of anything in this current situation. We should not be in this war. People have died needlessly, immense amounts of money have been wasted on another war, and the pathways to a diplomatic breakthrough have become increasingly narrow. Until this war has been ended, it’s premature to talk about accomplishments.
A: Given how tense and politically charged this issue is in Washington, it unfortunately comes with the territory that any push for peace will be punished by those who prefer conflict. And on this issue, the gloves have always been off, sadly. Until a resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict has been found, I don’t expect the political charge of this issue to recede, which means that many of us in this space will pay a personal price for challenging the forces of war.
On the subject of Michigan: Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg coined the term “Reagan Democrat” in 1985 by interviewing and studying the voters of what paradigmatically swingy suburban Detroit county? (Sign up for The Blue Book to find the answer in tomorrow’s newsletter.)
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