Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from The New Republic, produced and presented by the DSR Network. I’m your host, Greg Sargent.
All this comes as Trump just unleashed a crazed tirade about his poll numbers, one that strongly suggests he has zero interest in helping his party in the midterms. It now feels like time is running out for Trump to turn things around, and we may be within striking distance of getting the election that Democrats really want. So we’re talking about all of it with Democratic strategist Sawyer Hackett, who knows Texas and has worked on midterm elections as well. Sawyer, good to have you back on.
Sargent: So let’s just start with this bizarre rant from Trump. He posted this: “My real poll numbers, not those made up by the fake news media, are the best they have ever been. And why wouldn’t they be with the biggest tax cuts and employment numbers ever, the biggest outside investment in America and world history? A totally secure border, a giant victory in Venezuela, the denuclearization of Iran. Unparalleled respect and success throughout the world, and much more.”
Hackett: Based on the polling that we’re seeing across the country right now, it looks like Donald Trump’s coalition has fallen apart. I mean, he’s atrophied severely with Latino voters, atrophied severely with Black voters, atrophied severely with young voters, and especially independent voters who are running away from him across the country in all of these major swing states, in all of these states where we have major Senate races. And that’s really going to be the tipping point, I think, for the midterm cycle.
Before we get into the head-to-head, let’s talk about Trump’s numbers in Texas. CNN’s Harry Enten flagged this. Fox has 54 percent viewing him unfavorably there versus 45 percent viewing him favorably. Sawyer, as someone who knows Texas, can you explain how shocking it is for Trump to be nine points underwater in that state?
I mean, we haven’t elected a statewide Democrat in Texas for many, many decades. And so, you know, over cycle over cycle, we’ve gotten closer and closer to kind of flipping the state, but Republican numbers, especially Republican incumbents, have always kind of performed better in Texas, because it is a state that is fairly conservative. It’s also a state that’s fairly independent.
Sargent: You brought up independents. The Fox poll finds that 78 percent of independents view Trump unfavorably versus 18 percent who view him favorably. That’s sixty points underwater. And 50 percent of independents in Texas in the Fox poll have a strongly unfavorable view of Trump. Sawyer, have you ever heard of numbers like that? And can you explain why independents matter so much in Texas?
But I think independent voters, more so than any other specific demographic, are responding to what’s happening with the economy. I mean, you look at this poll and you look at the breakdown of what are the most important issues voters care about to independents especially, it’s affordability. And on cost of living, you have James Talarico running away with the issue, with Ken Paxton, who I think has been kind of bogged down and mired in personal scandal and kind of trying to overcome that with the electorate, not necessarily winning over those independent voters with his attacks on James Talarico’s masculinity. That’s not necessarily working for them.
Sargent: Yeah, and I think it’s interesting that you say that we have to be alert to the possibility that independents break away from Democrats at the end. But numbers like these would suggest that we’re looking at maybe a muted effect. If anything, along those lines, it looks like Talarico’s going to win this demographic.
Hackett: My assessment is that Talarico is in a really prime position to take this victory in November. And I think it’s kind of a perfect storm in Texas, where you have a really faulty candidate on the Republican side who’s turning away independents and not necessarily able to keep that coalition intact, and a Democratic nominee who’s able to kind of reach across the aisle towards independents, who are really disillusioned with what’s happening on the economy.
A lot of them are really fixed on that cost of living issue. And that’s been the issue that Talarico has been dominating on in the race. So really, I think it’s a matter of whether Talarico can keep running up those margins. We can keep running down Trump’s numbers in the state. And hopefully we can get to a point where, heading into the GOTV part of this race, the deluge of money that we’re going to see coming from the right isn’t enough to dissuade enough independents away from Talarico.
Hackett: Well, and we talk about, the Trump coalition of 2024, the reason he was able to kind of have such a wild swing to the right across all these different states and all these different demographics—that coalition was built on winning over support from Latino and Hispanic voters in places like Texas, winning over younger Black men, winning over younger voters in general. That coalition has completely collapsed. And I think Texas embodies that collapse more than any state in the country.
Sargent: I would assume, though, that we should all breathe a little easier if Talarico gets up into the sixties with Hispanics, right?
The other thing I found interesting in that Fox poll was that Talarico, it looks like he has 87 percent support among Black voters in the state. There’s been a lot of conversation, especially post-primary, whether Talarico can win over Black support, especially after kind of that dust-up during the primary cycle. It looks like he’s doing a lot better with Black voters than he was just a few weeks ago. I’d like to see those Hispanic numbers come up a little bit, but the coalition is looking pretty strong.
As I think you alluded to, the swing to Trump in South Texas among Latinos was widely held up by countless pundits and commentators and analysts as a sign that there had been something like a permanent realignment in U.S. politics. And now that has entirely evaporated. So this swing away from Trump among Texas Latinos is a major, major story. It shows that lots and lots of people really overread the significance of 2024. And I really think we should underscore that. Can you talk about that?
I think those voters were largely reacting to an economic situation in which affordability was the top concern for voters, and they did not feel like Democrats were serious enough in addressing it, and at the time had a nominee—or an incumbent president in Joe Biden—who was not kind of addressing their concerns. What we’ve seen is that that coalition was not actually intact at all. And mostly they were responding to the national environment, which is what we want to happen right now in 2026 in the midterms.
Sargent: And there’s some cause for concern going forward about whether, if Democrats can pull these voters back, how permanent is that? But I think the story here is that Trump’s 2024 gains with these demographics proved incredibly fleeting, right?
We have to be laser-focused on telling our story to all parts of the coalition, including Hispanic voters, about why they should support us, why they and their families would be better off under Democratic policies that support them and help lower their costs.
Harry Enten (voiceover): All of a sudden you put Texas in play, you put places like Iowa, Ohio in play. You know, you’re talking about Alaska being potentially in play. Look at this chance to win the Senate. Now it’s basically an even race. Republicans were three-to-two favorites a month ago. Look at where we are right now. Now Republicans’ chances have fallen significantly, just a 53 percent chance to hold on to the United States Senate. Democrats have a real shot indeed.
Hackett: Our ability to compete in all of these major Senate states is mostly going to be a reaction to where Trump is. Where costs are at the time, what’s Trump’s approval rating, are we still at war with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz is still shut down? All of these are factors that are going to play into the national environment around Trump.
And right now they have a current administration that’s driving their prices up on gas, on groceries, is kind of causing them massive chaos and corruption on a daily basis that they’re having to deal with. And right now I think voters are looking at the situation and they want to turn the page. It’s kind of a throw-the-bums-out election.
I think we need to have that buffer. And a state like Texas, I think, is right within that wheelhouse of what’s achievable. But so is a state like Alaska. So is a state like Iowa. So is a state like Ohio and North Carolina. So we’re competing in all of these states. But I think Texas right now, James Talarico is kind of putting forward a playbook on how to compete in the Trump era. He’s staying focused on affordability, staying focused on corruption, and honing his own message and not getting into this back-and-forth over culture war crap that they’re trying to put out against him.
He is laser-focused on affordability, but he isn’t afraid to really speak in lofty moral terms about what’s happening to this country right now. I find that to be—I’ve said this before on here, but it’s like he’s found this new politics for the era of late-stage Trumpism or end-stage Trumpism, where everybody’s just had it and just wants to move on and wants to see something better in this country than this complete maniac completely unleashes on us every single day, day in and day out.
Hackett: I am. And I don’t necessarily think that it’s tied to ideology, right? Like in both of those candidates, both Ossoff and Talarico—I also think you’re seeing it in states like Michigan with someone like Abdul El-Sayed. These are not necessarily just focused on ideology. They’re not trying to come at Trump from the left or from the right. It’s from the top and the bottom, right? They’re talking about corruption. The way that these two, Ossoff and Talarico specifically, have been able to kind of hone in on the corruption angle in the midst of a conversation about affordability has been fascinating.
I think Trump is the one causing the pain right now. But I’m willing to support this Democratic nominee in a state like Texas because he’s clearly laser-focused on the things that are, you know, driving up my costs and, you know, making me angry when I see my elected representatives kind of enriching themselves and their allies at the expense of working families.
Hackett: Yeah, great to be with you, Greg.
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