The most important part of Vladimir Putin’s pact with the people of Russia is under growing pressure.
Since he first took power over a quarter of a century ago, the Russian president has promised security. Now that increasingly seems to be in short supply, as Ukrainian drones go after targets far inside the country’s borders.
Some are military, others are more commercial, aimed at damaging Russia’s economy and morale.
Russia has blamed Ukraine for a drone that hit a beach in the Gelendzhik area of Russia’s Black Sea coast on Monday. The explosion killed seven people, including three children. There has been no official response from Ukraine. Some reports suggest the drone may have been brought down by gunfire or jamming on its way to another, more obvious target.
Either way, the effect will be felt far from the Black Sea.
Ukraine denies it deliberately targets civilians. So does Russia, but thousands of Ukrainian civilians have been killed and millions displaced in the war the Kremlin is waging on its neighbour.
It’s a war that, for Russians, is coming closer to home. This was never part of Putin’s plan.
A bomb attack on a restaurant in Moscow on Saturday night was a reminder that not even the Russian capital is safe. Russia’s National Antiterrorism Committee said that three people were killed: an unidentified woman who was carrying the explosive device, a guard who challenged her and one customer.
The restaurant where the attack happened is inside one of Moscow’s seven Stalin-era skyscrapers. This is not some down-at-heel area of the Russian capital but a prestigious district that is also home to the United States embassy. The website of the restaurant, Balzi Rossi, invites would-be guests to watch a presentation showing the banqueting service offered there.
An explosion at a Moscow restaurant on 1 August killed at least three people and wounded 21 others (Photo: Tatyana Makeyeva/AFP)Inevitably, there has been speculation that the bombing was linked to Russia’s war in Ukraine. The attack was carried out in a similar way to one that killed Russian war blogger Vladlen Tatarsky in 2023.
Tatarsky died when a bust containing explosives was handed to him as a gift at a public event in Saint Petersburg. Daria Trepova, the woman convicted of that killing, claimed that she had not known she was handing over a bomb.
Whether or not investigators eventually determine that the latest Moscow attack was linked to what Russia still refers to as its “special military operation,” this is yet another blow to Putin’s reputation as the man who has Russia’s security at heart.
Ukrainian drones continue to hit targets hundreds of miles from the frontlines. Over the first weekend in August, at least eight people were killed in different regions of Russia. Among the targets was a warehouse belonging to Wildberries, Russia’s largest online retailer.
The strikes on Wildberries began in July, part of Ukraine’s attempts to more broadly disrupt the Russian economy and drive the cost of waging war ever higher. Aside from the direct impact, it’s designed to have the effect Putin has always been desperate to avoid: bringing the war home to the streets of Russia’s towns and cities.
The phrase “special military operation” was meant to convey to the Russian people (and the world) that this is not a “war” that you need to worry about. It is something that specialists are dealing with, far away. It’s a fiction that rings increasingly hollow.
Ukrainians are all too aware of this. One social media post recently shared a video of a blazing Wildberries warehouse and sneeringly asked Russians: “How was our delivery? Please leave a review!”
It’s not just Ukraine’s increasing successes in drone warfare that are adding to this sense of insecurity in Russia. The last twelve months have seen one Russian general killed in a car bomb, and another shot several times, in separate incidents in Moscow.
In Russia, like in many other places, a summer holiday is a popular preparation for the long winter ahead. But August has often been a time of crisis in the country’s modern history: the coup plot by communist hardliners in 1991, the financial crisis of 1998, the war with Georgia in 2008.
Then there was the sinking of the Kursk submarine in summer 2000. That came during the early weeks of Putin’s presidency, and he was criticised for not cutting short his holiday to deal with the disaster.
Putin will be hoping this aspect of history is not repeating itself again this year; otherwise, it could be a long, painful summer for him and his fellow Russians.
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