In a late Saturday post on Truth Social, Trump said he had agreed to requests by Iran and other Middle Eastern countries to “hold off any attack in that the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to.” The framework agreement, Trump said, “would include the Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT, and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat.”
He added that Israel also agreed to join the U.S. “in this commitment.” Israel has not publicly announced a commitment to suspend attacks on Iran.
But it’s far from the first time that the U.S. and Iran have agreed to pause attacks or signaled diplomatic progress, only to backtrack days later.
Still, the President’s back may be up against the wall as the war, now in its sixth month, remains unpopular with Americans facing rising prices of gas and other goods. Months of attacks have also depleted the Pentagon’s stockpile of key munitions, and the widening conflict has entangled more countries in the Middle East, which could push the human and economic cost of the war even higher.
On March 9, Trump said the war was “very complete, pretty much” and claimed that Iran’s military had been destroyed. Yet, fighting continued, and six days later Trump called on NATO allies and China to help reopen the Strait.
Israel also escalated its attacks on Lebanon, which Iran said was a cease-fire violation. Iran has repeatedly insisted that any cease-fire must include Lebanon, and analysts have said that Israel’s continued attacks—even after Trump later pressed Netanyahu to stop—could upend any U.S.-Iran deal.
On May 1, Trump informed Congress that hostilities with Iran “have terminated,” arguing that the War Powers Resolution’s deadline for congressional authorization no longer applied. A week later, U.S. and Iranian forces exchanged fire around the Strait, with U.S. forces disabling two Iranian tankers. Later that month, Trump said he cancelled a planned attack because “serious negotiations” were underway. U.S. strikes resumed by the end of May after negotiations faltered.
But the issue of the Strait of Hormuz remained unresolved, and in late June, days after the MOU was signed, U.S. officials said Iran struck a commercial ship in the Strait. The U.S. retaliated with strikes on Iran and officials said Iran attacked another tanker. The U.N. maritime agency paused its escort mission for ships stranded in the Strait, as the renewed violence heightened uncertainty around when global energy prices might stabilize.
On July 8, Trump declared the cease-fire “over.” The U.S. resumed its aerial campaign on Iran, including nearly two weeks of consecutive strikes, while Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks against countries with U.S. bases.
But again the pause was short-lived.
Fears spread of a widening war as more countries appeared to be getting involved. On Wednesday, U.S. and Saudi forces struck Iran-linked militias in Iraq, as Saudi Arabia accused them of launching drones at its oil facilities. And two gas vessels, including a U.S.-owned floating storage facility, at a Mediterranean port in Egypt caught fire in what appeared to be the first attack on Egyptian territory during the war.
Where things stand now
It appeared that the U.S. was planning a major attack. On Saturday, the State Department issued new security alerts over the potential risk of escalation, and U.S. embassies in Jordan, Iraq, and Israel advised heightened caution.
But Iran disputed Trump’s rationale for calling off the attack. Instead, Iranian officials suggested that the threat of further disruptions to global markets, including if Iran’s proxies escalated attacks in other shipping routes, forced Trump to back down.
Iranian media reported that Iran and Oman were in the final stages of negotiating an agreement over the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S.-Iran MOU had stated that the Strait should be open but left the details of its management to discussions between Iran and Oman. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei told Iranian state TV that the talks are centered on a new route through the Strait “that respects the sovereign rights of both sides,” but that it “will in no way return to the status it was before” the war began.
“With or without an agreement, and regardless of any external commitments,” Israeli Energy Minister Eli Cohen told Reuters, “if Iran attempts to renew its nuclear program or advance its ballistic missile industries, we will be there. We will take action, and we will strike.”
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