Its drone strikes deep inside Russia have created gasoline shortages, strained Russia’s economy, stoked anxiety among ordinary Russians, and created headaches for Vladimir Putin. Ukrainian forces have effectively isolated occupied Crimea from the Russian mainland, and they continue to strike Russian vessels in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.
If the disruption lasts, Russia could choke off a crucial source of foreign currency for Ukraine and boost Russia’s international negotiating leverage by inflicting pain on major grain importers in Africa and Asia.
This is not the first shutdown of Black Sea traffic since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Waves of Russian attacks on ports in late 2025 and early 2026 did not slow operations for long. But this latest barrage is both broader and more intense, largely because Ukraine’s recent successes, particularly inside Russia, have provoked Putin to try to reclaim battlefield momentum. For now, both Ukraine and Russia remain committed to aggressive military strategies.
Beyond cutting into Ukraine’s revenue and its ability to finance the war, Moscow also hopes to weaken international backing for Kyiv by driving up global food prices. Ukraine supplies a quarter of Egypt’s wheat imports and about 18% of Indonesia’s. It is also the European Union’s largest corn supplier, provides 92% of its sunflower oil imports, and remains an important source of feed grains and vegetable oils.
European support for Ukraine remains strong, and governments suffering from higher prices are more likely to blame Moscow than Kyiv. But Putin is now so anxious for battlefield wins that he will stay the course even without a clear-cut victory. Nor should we expect a revival of the agreement brokered by the United Nations in July 2022 that restored safe maritime traffic to and from Ukrainian ports.
For all these reasons, the shape of Russia’s war on Ukraine will continue to shift as each side searches for new ways to break the battlefield stalemate in its favor. And the economic damage, felt well beyond Ukraine and Russia, will continue.
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