With Jameson Taillon’s recent DFA, Edward Cabrera’s return coming into focus, and the trade deadline just days away, projecting the Cubs’ rotation more than a few days out is an impossible challenge. And, indeed, it’s already been shaken up from the announced plan earlier for this week.
According to Meghan Montemurro, Javier Assad will now start for the Cubs against the Cardinals in Thursday’s finale against the Cardinals, not Shota Imanaga as planned.
What does this mean? Well, a lot and a little all at once.
The deadline (i.e. an external addition to the rotation) may be just days away, but the Cubs have five games before deadline day … and then a game just a couple of hours thereafter. So they needed to fill Taillon’s missing spot in the rotation one way or another, and Assad is the obvious choice. With him in the fold, the Cubs current starting five looks like this (going in order starting from tonight):
Matthew Boyd, LHP @STL Javier Assad, RHP – @STL Shota Imanga, LHP – vsNYY David Peterson, LHP – vsNYY Collin Rea, RHP – vsNYYAnd hopefully that set of probables reveals my next point: I don’t think this means Shota Imanaga is hurt. By any means, really. Instead, I think the Cubs are using this opportunity to (1) give Imanaga an extra day of rest, which is something they used to do a lot more frequently when he first arrived from Japan, and (2) keep Javier Assad on a normal schedule.
Both Assad (3.0 IP) and Imanaga (6.0 IP) threw on July 25. So this is a normal amount of rest for both, with the bonus day going to Imanaga, who undoubtedly needs it more.
There’s also the fact that the Yankees are a tougher matchup offensively, and Imanaga is the better pitcher. So he doesn’t just get an extra day of rest, but the Cubs get a slightly better matchup, too, assuming Assad can hold his own against the Cardinals tomorrow.
Normally, I would expand from here and look ahead to how this lines up the rotation going forward, but I don’t know if we could say anything for sure even as soon as next week. It’s entirely possible that Assad will stick in the rotation and make his next start (which would be against the Dodgers at Wrigley Field on August 4, the day after the deadline), or … the Cubs may acquire a starter who’s ready to go as soon as that day.
Either way, I’d assume that game (vs the Dodgers) will be Assad’s last start in the rotation in the near term, because the Cubs simply will acquire a starting pitcher at the deadline. And once they have that guy, Assad will be last in, first out. Hopefully, back into the bullpen, where he can continue contributing meaningful innings.
After that, when Edward Cabrera returns, sometime roughly a week(ish) later, I’d imagine that Colin Rea will get the same treatment. So by this time next month, if all goes well, the Cubs rotation will probably look something more like this:
Matthew Boyd, LHP Shota Imanaga, LHP Edward Cabrera, RHP David Peterson, LHP Trade Acquisition(I’m putting them in that order for simplicity’s sake, not ranking them).
That would push both Assad and Rea to the bullpen, where Daniel Palencia and even Hunter Harvey are expected to return soon, as well (meaning the bullpen may need to open up as many as FOUR spots).
I suppose it’s possible the Cubs want to keep Rea in the rotation over David Peterson, but I find it unlikely given Peterson’s success with the Cubs and much greater upside. That’s just my speculation, though.
In any case, for now, the facts are simple: Imanaga is no longer starting tomorrow and Assad is. Everything beyond that is just a guess.
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