The Marlins’ recent 12-game losing streak, which they just snapped last night, has torpedoed the team’s once-promising playoff odds. Just a few weeks ago, Miami looked like a surefire deadline buyer. Now, at 53-54 with breakout righty Max Meyer on the injured list, the Fish seem in a more precarious position. They’re not in a strong enough spot to be aggressive buyers but are also close enough to the playoff picture — two back in the Wild Card hunt — that an aggressive sell-off doesn’t seem likely.
Craig Mish of Sportsgrid and Marlins.tv emphatically downplayed the possibility of a Sandy Alcantara trade last night (video link). Clubs will surely call about the former NL Cy Young winner in light of the recent swoon, but the Fish control Alcantara through 2027 via a $21MM club option. In a separate report, Mish suggests that lefty Braxton Garrett does have a real chance to move. Miami has been getting plenty of interest in the southpaw, it seems, and the club hasn’t been inclined to give him much of a look in the majors despite strong results in Triple-A Jacksonville. It’s worth digging in a bit on both pitchers.
Alcantara hasn’t bounced all the way back to ace level, but he’s pitched like a mid-rotation workhorse this season, averaging nearly 6 2/3 innings per outing while recording a 4.01 ERA over an MLB-leading 143 2/3 innings. The 30-year-old (31 in September) had a handful of brutal outings early in the season: a six-run drubbing, two outings in which he yielded seven runs apiece, and one that saw him shelled for eight runs. He also mixed in a shutout and several terrific starts between six and eight innings in length.
It’s been smoother sailing since the summer began. Dating back to June 1, Alcantara has a 3.29 ERA in 10 starts. His 21.4% strikeout rate in that time is up markedly from the 16.1% mark he registered through the end of May. Alcantara has been missing more bats recently, and his walk and ground-ball rates have remained strong throughout the year (even if they’re not quite at peak levels — the latter in particular).
Alcantara would net a nice return but probably not one quite commensurate with his name value. The Marlins surely don’t want to tank their chances of rallying and seizing a playoff spot by shipping out Alcantara for a middling return. They’re counting on him to contribute meaningful innings next year, too, and the rotation lacks certainty beyond him. They can hope for better health from Meyer and young Eury Pérez. That trio, plus some combination of prospect Thomas White and current starters like Janson Junk, Tyler Phillips and/or Ryan Gusto could give the Fish a nice rotation foundation. If Alcantara is viewed as the backbone of that staff, it stands to reason that the Marlins will — or should — eventually look at extending him to put an end to trade chatter once and for all.
Garrett stands as an under-the-radar trade candidate for clubs seeking controllable starting pitching. The former No. 7 overall draft pick had a breakout showing in 2022-23 when he pitched 247 2/3 innings of 3.63 ERA ball. That earned run average was supported by a strong 23.8% strikeout rate, a plus 5.1% walk rate and a heavy 48.7% grounder rate. Garrett looked to have broken out as a rotation building block — until a UCL tear in 2024 shelved him for the remainder of that season and all of the 2025 campaign.
The Marlins have only given Garrett two big league appearances this season. That comes despite Meyer’s current injury and prior IL trips for Pérez and Junk. Garrett was hit hard in that tiny sample of 4 1/3 MLB frames (seven runs with eight walks and only five strikeouts ), but he’s been sharp in Triple-A this season. He’s pitched 73 2/3 innings with an outstanding 2.32 ERA. His 9.5% walk rate is a bit high, but not egregiously so, and it’s offset by a big 27.2% strikeout rate and huge 54.4% ground-ball rate. His 91.8 mph average fastball in Triple-A is below average but is also slightly north of the 91.2 mph at which he sat during that terrific 2022-23 run.
Garrett was just torched for seven runs in his last Triple-A appearance, but prior to that he’d allowed two earned runs with a 40-to-8 K/BB ratio in a span of 35 2/3 innings (six starts and one single-inning relief appearance). He’s 28 years old (29 a couple days after the deadline), is being paid just $1.525MM this season, and is controllable for two more years beyond the current season.
Even as Garrett shines in Jacksonville, current Marlins brass doesn’t seem enamored with the idea of giving him another run in the majors. Maybe that’ll come down the stretch, but the Marlins have Meyer shelved and are still giving starts to late-20s/early-30s swing types like Junk, Phillips and Gusto. There’s no service time-related reason for Garrett to be languishing in Triple-A, and his performance (up until that recent thumping) more than merited a look. Perhaps the new front office, run by former Rays GM Peter Bendix, simply doesn’t hold Garrett in as high a regard as the prior regime.
Whatever the reason, Garrett feels something like an odd man out right now. Other teams looking to add to their rotation mix both this year and next understandably seem intrigued. The D-backs, Cubs, Brewers, White Sox, Rays, Padres, Rangers, Twins and division-rival Phillies and Braves all stand out as postseason hopefuls who could have a more pressing need in the rotation. Even clubs that aren’t contending in ’26 but might have an eye toward returning to the postseason mix next year (e.g. Blue Jays, Royals, A’s, Giants) could have interest in a future-oriented move if the cost of acquisition isn’t especially prohibitive.
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