Right-hander Clay Holmes is a clear trade candidate as the Mets head toward a deadline sell-off. He’s currently on the injured list as he rehabs a broken fibula he suffered back in May when he was struck by a comebacker but shouldn’t be out much longer. The Mets have reportedly at least considered a contract extension for the veteran righty, but Holmes told the team’s beat today that there haven’t been any substantive talks on that front (via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com).
Holmes, 33, is playing out the second season of a three-year, $38MM contract. The final season of that deal is a $12MM player option for the 2027 campaign, however, and so long as Holmes is healthy, the widespread expectation is that he’ll decline that player option and return to the open market. His play to this point since signing in Queens makes that opt-out call a relative no-brainer.
While Holmes was used as a late-inning reliever and eventually a closer during his time across town in the Bronx, the Mets signed him with an eye toward stretching him back out as a starter. The experiment couldn’t have gone much better. Holmes has appeared in 43 games (40 starts) and pitched 218 1/3 innings with a 3.26 ERA, an 18.9% strikeout rate, a 9.2% walk rate and a huge 55.8% ground-ball rate. That includes a 2.39 ERA, 20.9 K% and 8.4 BB% in 52 2/3 frames this year before that poorly placed liner sent him to the injured list for two-plus months.
During Holmes’ absence, an already poor start to the Mets season spiraled out of control. New York currently sits 43-60, dead last in the National League East and in possession of Major League Baseball’s fifth-worst record overall. There’s no mystery as to how they’ll approach the deadline. They’ve already signaled to other clubs that they’re going to sell off some veteran pieces. Names like Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, Nolan McLean, Carson Benge, Christian Scott and A.J. Ewing aren’t going to change hands before the deadline, but a large chunk of the roster will be available — Holmes included, given his effective rental status.
Holmes made his first minor league rehab start yesterday. It didn’t go all that well. He tossed 2 1/3 innings for the Mets’ Triple-A affiliate and allowed a pair of runs on three hits and two walks with a couple of strikeouts. He sat 93.4 mph on his sinker — not far off the 93.7 mph he averaged in nine starts prior to injury. Some early rust is to be expected as he (quite literally) gets his legs back under him; teams aren’t going to be put off by one wobbly rehab outing.
Virtually any contender in need of rotation help will have some degree of interest in Holmes. Some clubs that need bullpen help might even be interested in adding him to the back of the bullpen for the remainder of the season. The White Sox, seeking help on both ends of the pitching staff, are among the teams known to have interest. Holmes’ $13MM salary won’t be any kind of deterrent for a Chicago club whose payroll sits just north of $89MM, as shown in MLBTR’s new Payroll Tracker — even though the Mets apparently aren’t interested in paying down any salary on the names they eventually move.
In theory, the Mets could hold Holmes and make a qualifying offer, but even with the injury and that opt-out provision weighing down his value a bit, they should still be able to find a better return on him in the trade market. Since the Mets are luxury tax payors with no hope of ducking under the threshold, they’d only receive a compensatory pick after the fourth round — rather than after the first — in the event that Holmes (or any other impending free agent) declines a qualifying offer and signs elsewhere.
A trade has appeared to be the likeliest scenario from the jump — a fact that was only underscored when Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic reported on it a couple days ago — and Holmes’ acknowledgement of a lack of real talks on the extension front only further hammers that point home.
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