Connections, real or imagined, between the Chicago Cubs and Seattle Mariners have been a thing for several years now. The Mariners have lots of controllable starting pitching, the Cubs have lots of need for that. The Mariners have lots of offensive needs, the Cubs might be able to help with that.
But the rumors never seem to go anywhere, in large part because it seems like the Mariners don’t really want to trade a starting pitcher not named Luis Castillo. And given his contract and decline, that’s not as enticing as it would’ve been a few years ago.
Still, the connections persist, and now there’s a new wrinkle. Or, more to the point, a new pitcher.
From Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon at The Athletic:
“In their search for a right-handed hitter, the Mariners are telling teams they also are open to moving righty Emerson Hancock, according to people briefed on their discussions ….
The Chicago Cubs, who already have acquired left-hander David Peterson and righty Aaron Civale while trying to patch together their rotation, seemingly would be a team interested in Hancock.
Three Cubs right-handed hitters of varying experience – right fielder Seiya Suzuki, infielder/outfielder Matt Shaw and outfielder Kevin Alcántara – could appeal to the Mariners. But the Cubs, canvassing the entire market for starters, potentially could line up with the Los Angeles Angels for righty José Soriano or lefty Reid Detmers as well.”
Not to ignore that last part there, but we’ve discussed Soriano and Detmers already this week, and will certainly be discussing them some more soon.
Also, I have to say, as always, there could be leverage at play here. For example, the Cubs could be letting this out because they actually want to make a deal with the NL West rival Angels for one of their controllable starters (also mentioned in the article).
But let’s just take this at face value for now, and assume that the Mariners truly are open to moving Hancock because they believe he could generate the right trade value (and let’s also assume they aren’t just trying to move him because they don’t like his future projections).
Emerson Hancock, 27, is a former sixth overall pick who has taken some time to establish himself in the big leagues:
(via FanGraphs)Hancock sits in the mid-90s at a funky arm angle, and, although he’s not a strikeout artist, he’s been getting his fair share this year (23.4%) while walking very few (6.3%). The hard contact and home run rate aren’t ideal, but his results are broadly supported by the peripherals. This looks like a real breakout for Hancock.
Of course, that leaves the question of why the Mariners would trade him in that case. Sure, they have an overload of starting pitchers (and some tip-top prospects on the way), but Hancock isn’t even arbitration-eligible until 2028! Surely they could figure things out while he’s still so valuable, no?
Well, no. At 27, it’s possible Hancock is nearing his peak, regardless of where he falls in service time. So, having a breakout year, it might be the best time to move him for value. Moreover, a “broken out” Hancock is more like a really good middle-of-the-rotation type, rather than an ace. Throw in the fact that he really struggled in his first couple goes in the big leagues, and maybe the Mariners don’t want to risk regression when they can use him right now to acquire some real value.
It’s very hard for me to see the Cubs trading Seiya Suzuki right now in a competitive year, and I’m not sure Kevin Alcantara has enough trade value in a one-for-one at this point, but – even factoring in team control – it’s plausible Matt Shaw could be a good fit in a swap for a comparable-value pitcher at a comparable-level of service time. Shaw is out with a hand/wrist issue right now.
This may well be a rumor to follow.
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