It’s happened in every season since Division I football split into two levels in 1978 and surely will again this year. Here are 10 predictions of FCS teams beating FBS opponents.
FCS wins over FBS teams tend to be surprising enough, but many times national powers are not the ones pulling off the upsets.
Among four winners last year, only Tarleton State advanced from its early season FBS win to qualify for the FCS playoffs or finish nationally ranked. Bryant even wound up finishing 3-9, and one of those wins was against a sub-FCS opponent.
A year earlier, there were seven FCS wins over the FBS, but only three of the teams advanced to the playoffs.
The 2026 season may be different, however, as Top 25-level teams appear primed to lead the way with FBS wins. We’re ranking our 10 highest potential FCS-over-FBS wins.
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6 months ago Craig Haley1. Montana State at Nevada (Sept. 12)
A banner nucleus returns for the reigning national champion Bobcats, who may wind up being favored just as they were before winning at New Mexico two years ago. Jeff Choate, who preceded Brent Vigen as MSU’s coach, is a mere 6-19 in two seasons guiding Nevada, and his team returns just five starters. MSU Last’s FBS Win: 35-31 over New Mexico (Aug. 24, 2024).
2. Tarleton State at Bowling Green (Sept. 5)
The Texans are 2-0 against Group of 6 teams since joining the FCS in 2020. Last year’s No. 1 scoring offense (new offensive coordinator Chris Ross guided the No. 7 scoring attack at Stephen F. Austin) will have played SWAC champ Prairie View A&M by the time Bowling Green opens its second season under Eddie George (4-8 debut). Tarleton’s Last FBS Win: 30-27 in two overtimes over Army (Aug. 29, 2025).
3. Illinois State at Northern Illinois (Sept. 12)
The Redbirds, 2025 FCS runners-up to Montana State, have 15 road wins over the last two seasons. Whether it’s USC transfer Gage Roy or redshirt sophomore Beckham Pellant, the new starting quarterback will be surrounded by offensive veterans, and that’s not good news for an NIU defense that doesn’t have a returning starter. ISU’s Last FBS Win: 35-19 over Colorado State (Sept. 22, 2018).
4. South Dakota State at Northwestern (Sept. 5)
Northwestern may be a Power-Four program from the Big Ten, but it has three FCS losses, including to Southern Illinois (2022) and Illinois State (2016) from the Missouri Valley Football Conference. Quarterback Chase Mason and the Jackrabbits won at Montana State in the same weekend of the season last year – a tougher assignment than many FBS games. SDSU’s Last FBS Win: 42-23 at Colorado State (Sept. 3, 2021).
5. Southeastern Louisiana at ULM (Sept. 19)
OK, let’s get this right out of the way: The Lions haven’t defeated an FBS opponent since, well, 1980 (but against ULM, then called Northeast Louisiana. That makes them due, right? ULM (3-9 last year) is a step down from SLU’s recent FBS opponents, and that should include South Alabama earlier this season on Sept. 5. A potential two-QB system of Kyle Lowe and New Mexico transfer Cole Welliver could provide fits to ULM. SLU’s Last FBS Win: 55-30 over Northeast Louisiana (Oct. 25, 1980).
6. Idaho State at Utah State (Sept. 5)
Idaho State had fourth-quarter leads in a pair of FBS losses last season and Utah State lost to a Big Sky team (Weber State) four years ago. The Bengals have plenty of offensive talent, including 3,000-yard passer Jordan Cooke, 1,000-yard rusher Dason Brooks and Chedron Brooks, their 1,000-yard receiver from 2023 back via transfer. ISU’s Last FBS Win: 30-28 over Nevada (Sept. 16, 2017).
7. Montana at Oregon State (Sept. 19)
The Griz are replacing a lot of starters, but they had to do the same last year before following up their 2024 national runner-up season with a trip to the semifinals. New coach Bobby Kennedy has inherited explosive weapons in QB Keali’i Ah Yat, running back Eli Gillman and wide receiver Brooks Davis. The Griz beat a Pac-12 team in their most-recent FBS matchup, but the conference is much different five years later. UM’s Last FBS Win: 13-7 over Washington (Sept. 4, 2021).
8. Alabama State at Troy (Sept. 12)
Alabama State finished last season as one of the first teams outside the Stats Perform FCS Top 25 Poll, and an intra-state upset here would go a long way toward powering into the rankings. Hornets QB Andrew Body accounted for 431 yards of total offense and five touchdowns in a close call at UAB last year, and Troy has only one defensive starter returning. ASU’s Last FBS Win: None.
9. Stony Brook at Ball State (Sept. 12)
Stony Brook quarterback Quinn Boyd will already have had two games to get acclimated with a bunch of new offensive weapons, and Ball State returns only one defensive starter. Still, this may be a generous prediction because the Seawolves haven’t been competitive in their last seven FBS games, outscored by a combined 286-27. Stony Brook’s Last FBS Win: 23-3 over Army (Sept. 29, 2012).
10. West Georgia at Kennesaw State (Sept. 3)
West Georgia is in its third FCS season and Kennesaw its third FBS season (it fell to UT Martin in 2024). Given the visiting Wolves have a new coach (Steve Englehart) and a new lineup full of transfers, it will be important to have some cohesion coming out of their opener against Chattanooga. UWG’s Last FBS Win: None.
Five More Potential FCS vs. FBS Wins
Rhode Island at Temple (Sept. 5) The Citadel at Charlotte (Sept. 5) Wofford at Kent State (Sept. 12) Nicholls at Sam Houston State (Sept. 19) LIU at FIU (Sept. 26)For more FCS football coverage, follow at X, Facebook, Instagram and Bluesky.
Dateline Upset City: 10 Potential FCS vs. FBS Wins to Watch for in 2026 Opta Analyst.
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