Left-hander Foster Griffin should have plenty of suitors if he’s made available at the trade deadline, but he isn’t a guarantee to be on the block. Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic reported this morning that the Nationals are “still assessing” whether to trade Griffin or keep him for the rest of the regular season. An extension is also a possibility.
The Griffin addition has turned into one of the best moves of new president of baseball operations Paul Toboni’s brief tenure. The lefty signed a one-year, $5.5MM deal to return to MLB after three seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball. He’s notched a 2.68 ERA with just under a strikeout per inning across 20 starts. Griffin has outperformed his xERA by more than a run, but still has a respectable 3.61 xFIP and a 3.68 SIERA. Even if his output regresses to those numbers, he’d be more than worth his contract.
[Related: Nationals Trade Deadline Outlook]
Griffin’s previous MLB experience consisted of one appearance with the Royals in 2020 and six games between Kansas City and Toronto in 2022. He missed significant time with a forearm injury during that stretch. Griffin left for Japan in 2023, where he put together three solid years with the Lotte Giants. He entered a free agent market this winter which featured several intriguing names coming over from Asia. Tatsuya Imai was the headliner, but Cody Ponce and Anthony Kay were both generating interest. Ryan Weiss and Drew Anderson also made returns to the States. Of the group, only Weiss’ commitment with the Astros (one year, $2.6MM) came in cheaper than Griffin’s deal.
The non-Tarik Skubal trade market features pending free agents with longer MLB track records than Griffin, but no one matching his 2026 numbers. Freddy Peralta of the Mets was hammered again on Monday, pushing his ERA above 5.00. Teammate Clay Holmes got off to a strong start, but is still working his way back from a broken leg. Longtime Blue Jays ace Kevin Gausman couldn’t make it out of the fourth inning yesterday. He has a 6.56 ERA since the start of June, though a 4.58 xERA suggests some bad luck. Robbie Ray of the Giants has seen his walk rate jump back up to 11.6%, while his strikeout rate has dipped to 20.6%.
Toboni will certainly be fielding calls from contenders in need of starting pitching, but perhaps the Nationals feel they’re in that group. Washington enters play on Wednesday with a 51-51 record. The club is 1 1/2 games out of the final NL Wild Card spot. The proximity to a postseason bid is a bit misleading considering how many teams are in the mix. The Pirates, Diamondbacks, Cardinals, Marlins, Nationals, and Padres are all within two games of each other. Given the streakiness of the Cubs and Phillies, all three Wild Card spots are far from spoken for.
It’s hard to imagine the Nationals surviving down the stretch if they move Griffin. He’s been a steady force in a rotation with minimal consistency outside of Cade Cavalli. Griffin and Cavalli have accounted for 20 of the team’s 21 quality starts. Part of that is due to the frequent use of openers, which robs the rest of the rotation of the opportunity to qualify, but that speaks to the inadequacy of the other options. Miles Mikolas and Zack Littell have been much worse when used as traditional starters, requiring the team to use relievers ahead of them whenever feasible. Andrew Alvarez has completed five innings just once in 14 appearances.
Washington working out a long-term deal with Griffin ahead of the trade deadline seems like a long shot. Even if his production trails off in the second half, the 30-year-old should garner plenty of interest this offseason. His trip through free agency will be much more lucrative this time around. The Nationals have been hesitant spenders in recent seasons, currently sitting with the fourth-lowest payroll according to our Payroll Tracker tool. Unless there’s some kind of hometown discount (which would be surprising after just a half-season in the organization), Washington is unlikely to fork over a major commitment. Regardless of the circumstances, a late July extension for a trade candidate is pretty rare.
Photo courtesy of Scott Marshall, Imagn Images
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