While Morgan Rogers’ record move to Chelsea raised some eyebrows, there are plenty of reasons to expect he’ll be a success at Stamford Bridge.
It quickly became apparent after the conclusion of the 2025-26 season that Aston Villa were unlikely to hold on to Elliot Anderson earlier this summer.
It’s an eye-watering amount of money, and therefore understandable why Arsenal might have been cautious. But at the same time, they’ve missed out on a Premier League-proven player they’d liked for a long time, and to a rival no less.
As it turns out, Chelsea’s tactical plans for Rogers supposedly played a key role in convincing him not to hold out for Arsenal to come back into the equation and instead accept a move to Stamford Bridge.
According to media reports, Rogers was told by Chelsea that although he’ll ordinarily feature from – or towards – the left, he’ll have opportunities to play other roles as well. It’s claimed this was appealing to him.
Given his new coach, Xabi Alonso, is also freshly installed at Chelsea, there’s no real certainty regarding the system Rogers will be playing in. However, the suggestion he could play a variety of roles would lead us to believe the Blues aren’t just going to be working on one setup.
In fact, immediately following confirmation of Alonso’s move to Chelsea, it was broadly reported that they were going to build familiarity with multiple shapes ahead of the new season, predominantly a 3-4-3 akin to what the Spaniard used at Bayer Leverkusen, and more of a 4-2-3-1, which he utilised at Real Madrid.
Chelsea apparently used the latter in their first pre-season friendly, a behind-closed-doors encounter with Crawley Town. Given the personnel missing, though, we can’t read too much into that. Similarly, some of their transfer business already this summer supports the idea that a back-three system will be thoroughly explored.
In terms of those rough shapes, there’s nothing to suggest Rogers couldn’t fit into either lineup. If playing three at the back, he’d occupy the left of the two No 10 roles; if playing four at the back, he’d be slightly wider but with freedom to come inside, or he might even occupy the central role from time to time.
Some are sceptical he’s the ideal kind of attacker for an Alonso team, however. These concerns largely seem to stem from his chosen setup at Bayer Leverkusen.
During his two full seasons there, Alonso’s team averaged 62.1% (2023-24) and 59.6% (2024-25) possession in Bundesliga games. The graphic below shows their territorial dominance during their successful 2023-24 campaign, which saw them tally the most (740) sequences comprising 10+ passes and build-ups (open-play sequences with 10+ passes which end in a shot or a touch in the box), with 197. Similarly, the average speed at which they moved upfield (1.7 metres/second) was the slowest.
On top of that, their 367 high turnovers was 54 more than any other side. In short, they were set up to keep the ball as close to the opposition’s goal as possible, patiently build with lots of passes in the attacking half of the pitch, and then win possession back as quickly as possible if they lost it. It’s a system that lends itself to attackers who are tidy and intricate in tight spaces.
While this isn’t to say Rogers can’t play in such a team, would it allow him to maximise his biggest strengths? This is a question that’s been asked by sceptics, and it’s a reasonable point to make.
Rogers is at his most effective with space to gallop into rather than in tight spaces.
For instance, his dribble completion rate last season was just 34.2%, which was nothing to shout about. And his completion rate for passes under pressure was 73.4%; among the 161 forwards and midfielders to attempt at least 300 passes under pressure in 2025-26, Rogers ranked 143rd. Neither point reflects a player who’s incredibly effective in close-quarters engagements.
But with space to attack, Rogers can be a menace.
First of all, he frequently gets the ball upfield. His 223 progressive carries in 2025-26 put him 10th among Premier League forwards, wingers and attacking midfielders. Of those, 110 progressed upfield the ball by at least 10 metres, and for that he ranked 13th.
Rogers’ positive mindset went beyond merely trying to progress the play, though. He could so often be relied upon to inspire danger when getting on the ball and running with it.
Among all Premier League players last season, only Cody Gakpo (41) and Matheus Cunha (35) tallied more shot-ending carries than Rogers’ 30. And on top of that, Rogers also created 16 chances for teammates following a carry – only 11 players bettered that, which is also pretty impressive when you consider Chelsea’s new signing is broadly seen as more of a shot taker than a creator.
Rogers’ combined 46 chances created and shots taken following carries put him behind just Jérémy Doku (58), Gakpo (57) and Bukayo Saka (56).
His effectiveness running with the ball comes mostly from his strength and pace. He is of course, a technically gifted player, and this obviously helps, but he looks more comfortable dribbling and attacking defenders when he’s moving at speed as opposed to in close-quarters situations.
But coming back to potential concerns with his suitability for Alonso’s back-three system, the counterpoint is that a player like Rogers gives you the possibility to be a threat in a different way.
For example, let’s say Alonso does want Chelsea to play in a similar fashion to his Bayer Leverkusen side – there’s no guarantee it’ll work in exactly the same way or to the same degree. There’s every chance it’d be less dominant in the Premier League than in the Bundesliga anyway; the very nature and competitiveness of England’s top flight might mean games are unavoidably more open.
Rogers would be a proven weapon in such a context with his effectiveness at carrying a team up the pitch.
But let’s assume Chelsea do go on to have significant territorial dominance under Alonso and there is less space for Rogers to run into from deeper positions like at Aston Villa, that wouldn’t necessarily mean there isn’t potential for him to still be incredibly useful.
He isn’t someone who switches off when not in possession. Rogers is frequently on the move and that makes him difficult to track. Case in point: only four players made more off-ball runs than him in the 2025-26 Premier League season.
His 160 off-ball runs ending in the box was the eighth most. And while his figures are helped by the fact he played the equivalent of 36.5 full matches, it’s evidence of his desire to get into dangerous positions, and his focus when not on the ball.
If space is at a premium in attack for Chelsea, it could very well be that this side of Rogers’ game comes to the fore more. There will be a lot of quality in the Blues’ team, and therefore presumably plenty of chances created, and this might allow him to carve out a slightly different niche.
After all, it’s unlikely he’s going to be playing alongside a centre-forward similar to Cole Palmer, too.
This scenario we’ve imagined here, where Rogers potentially adapts his game somewhat to be less of a threat carrying the ball from deep positions, may ultimately play into the hands of his other great attribute: his ball-striking ability.
Since his Premier League debut in February 2024, Rogers has scored 21 non-penalty goals from 14.7 non-penalty expected goals (xG). His overperformance of +6.3 in that time is the 10th most in the Premier League.
While some might apportion that to “luck”, Rogers has frequently shown his quality by scoring spectacular goals. It feels like he’s gone beyond just being fortunate, proving he simply has a great strike on him.
His five goals from outside the box in the Premier League since his Villa debut is bettered by just six players. And among those to have scored at least once from range in that time, only three (Bruno Guimarães – 9.6%, Alex Iwobi – 9.6%, Amadou Onana – 9.5%) have a better conversion rate via shots from outside the box than Rogers (9.3%).
That is a strength that can potentially be seen as a gamebreaker, particularly against teams in a low block. Not just because he has the ability to score from distance, but he frequently forces the goalkeeper into action, and that can lead to additional chances or goals – such as when a Rogers effort wasn’t held by the Norway goalkeeper in the World Cup and Jude Bellingham was on hand to turn in the rebound.
It’s understandable that some might have reservations about this deal. Chelsea have paid an incredible amount of money to sign Rogers, which in itself can be a burden for some players. And then there are tactical reasons to think Chelsea and Rogers aren’t a perfect match.
But at the same time, Rogers is the kind of player who has a habit of being impactful regardless of the context. For example, he’s not a right winger but he still made his presence known playing there for England against Argentina in the World Cup semi-final, setting up Anthony Gordon’s opener.
Is he a £117m player? To most, no, probably not. But is he a potential matchwinner and someone who can find a way to make himself useful in almost any team? Yes, he is, and to Chelsea that might ultimately be worth £117m.
Rogers may not be a success at Chelsea in exactly the same way he was at Villa, but that’s fine. Either way, it’s difficult to imagine him not making a significant impact in some manner at Stamford Bridge.
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Morgan Rogers Doesn’t Need to Be Aston Villa’s Morgan Rogers to Succeed at Chelsea Opta Analyst.
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