Bodnar, a veteran and former University of Montana president who launched his anti-partisan bid in March, is part of a rising Democratic strategy to win Senate seats in red states: Rather than running as Democrats, opposition candidates are filing as independents. The logic makes sense on paper. Roughly three in five Americans have an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party, whereas what the party in theory stands for—better health care, lowering the cost of living, and the like—remains very popular.
Schweitzer, and nearly a dozen other Montana Democrats I spoke with, disagree. The former governor’s main issue with Bodnar is that he thinks the political newcomer has no shot of winning, independent or not. Alani Bankhead, who won the Democratic nomination for Senate last month, has insisted she won’t drop out of the race, despite recent calls from Montana Democratic legislators for either her or Bodnar to exit. Diluting the anti-Republican vote share basically kills any hopes of defeating GOP nominee Kurt Alme. Hence the dead end.
Bodnar would probably like Schweitzer’s dirt road allegory because he really wants everyone to know he’s all about the old-school Montana lifestyle. Bodnar’s campaign launch video focuses less on the reason he moved to the Last Best Place in 2017—to head the University of Montana—and more on the “oath” and “prayer” he took as a member of the military. The following few minutes cut between images of Montana’s wilderness, small towns, and Bodnar posing next to animals he recently shot, all with a 1980s electric guitar riff running in the background.
In a recent interview, Bodnar told me he filed as an independent to fight the system that has caused so many people to feel “politically homeless.” “I’m running against a national political system that has stopped showing up in Montana,” he said.
Even if his smokescreen isn’t hard to see through, what Bodnar is doing makes sense from a national perspective. The U.S. Senate is so biased in Republicans’ favor that Democrats have to fight for any Senate seat where they can get the slightest foothold, including in places that voted for Donald Trump. But in parts of the country like Montana where Trump has reached almost rock-star status, it’s hard to see a lot of voters suddenly deciding to vote for someone representing the party their president called “human garbage.”
From a local perspective, though, the downsides are clear. Running as an independent probably gives Bodnar a better shot to win in 2026. But such a decision may as well guarantee no Democrat will be able to win in Montana in 2028, 2030, or further down the road. “It destroys, over time, the Democratic Party,” said Mike Jopek, a former Montana state representative.
Jopek says this is partly a consequence of a broader trend. Political power and influence in the state, he explained, have shifted from parties to “out of state” consultants and PACs entirely focused on the immediate national ledger, not the health of the Montana Democratic Party in the long run. “Over time, those PACs … they’ve really kind of consolidated the power away from the parties, both on the Democratic and the Republican side, and so they really are starting to gain a lot more influence on how politics plays in Montana,” he said.
Such long-term thinking is especially essential in Montana, because the state has basically no Democratic infrastructure. In the final weeks of Tester’s campaign, senior staff members offered to pay for anyone around the country to fly to the state to knock doors for the campaign. The campaign even hired me, who grew up around Ivy League professors and lived in D.C., to try to convince voters that I held authentic Montanan populist views. If state Democrats in the past had devoted themselves to ground-level organizing, I’m sure Tester could have found better messengers for his campaign.
The issue with that logic is that Bodnar’s campaign will only exacerbate the problems Montana Democrats face. If you keep telling voters that being a Democrat sucks, sooner or later they’re going to start believing you. “It’s a shame that they’re trying to fool people like this and weaken the party and taking short term over long term,” said local organizer Andy Boyd. “It’s pretty frustrating to watch.”
“This race isn’t about positioning one party or another for long-term electoral success,” he said. “This race is about positioning this country for long-term success, so our kids could grow up in a country that is in a better state than the one that we lived in.”
Bodnar’s campaign website features a collection of policy goals tailored to offend no one. He wants a strong military but more international cooperation, a strict border that also allows for “Montana’s farmers” to get “legal labor,” and improved but still private health care. He hopes to eliminate the national deficit not by doing what the Democrats want (taxing billionaires) or the Republicans want (cutting Social Security). Instead, he “can say what neither party will”: that it’s possible to eliminate the national deficit and still invest in the future simply through “honesty,” whatever that means.
The first-time candidate has also said he won’t caucus with either political party if elected to the Senate—which, while an easy way to show Montanans he’s truly independent, means he’ll have a hard time getting any committee assignments, and thus won’t have any power. “Is he actually so stupid he thinks he can go to D.C. and get anything done without caucusing with the party?” said Jesse Mullen, the 2024 Democratic nominee for Montana secretary of state.
In all likelihood, the logistics of how Bodnar would operate as an independent senator won’t wind up being relevant. Bodnar insists he has a path to victory by combining independents with people from every party (including even “members of the Green Party”). But the polls say different: Bodnar consistently trails Republican nominee Kurt Alme by double digits.
Brian Schweitzer, again, turned to a road analogy in explaining the solution to Montana Democrats’ woes: “To run a campaign in Montana, you have to understand that Montana is a small town with a long Main Street.” He said current candidates in Montana, regardless of party label, are “lazy,” not willing to do the hard work of canvassing the entire length of Main Street—the grocery store, the school, the bar—to reintroduce themselves to voters and fix the party’s brand.
Only when they walk that street will Democrats win enough local races and build the power necessary to prove people like Bodnar wrong, by enacting progressive policies that people want to see and giving Montanans and Americans alike a reason to support their party. That path might be slow—a long, winding, bumpy dirt road, if you will—but at least it arrives at a rewarding destination. That’s a whole lot better than trying to take a quick short cut and finding yourself at a dead end.
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