The US and Iran once again exchanged fire overnight, following the breakdown of their ceasefire, with American forces expanding strikes to include targets across Iran. Donald Trump is now considering further escalation that could include an attack on one of the country’s most heavily-fortified nuclear facilities.
The US President said this week that he could green-light a strike on Iran’s mysterious Pickaxe Mountain site, which has so far been spared from attack.
“We have a lot of eyes on it but Pickaxe is a possible target for a nice, big, fat shot right in the front door,” Trump told the conservative Hugh Hewitt television show. “We’re going to take out Pickaxe Mountain. Tell the Iranians to be ready,” he added.
Iran has said the site is for the production of centrifuges that can be used to enrich uranium. Tehran claims its nuclear programme is peaceful, although it has enriched nuclear fuel to near-weapons grade levels.
UN inspectors have been blocked from visiting Pickaxe Mountain, which is adjacent to the Natanz nuclear facility and includes a network of tunnels that extend an estimated 100 metres underground – deeper than the nuclear sites the US bombed during Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025.
This secrecy has fueled suspicions that Pickaxe could be part of an Iranian clandestine weapons programme.
Recent satellite images show construction work at the vast site, including moves to fortify the perimeter and harden entrances against potential air strikes, according to analysis from the Institute for Science and International Security, a US think-tank.
The group said that the site could be used for secret enrichment, or for “nuclear weaponisation activities such as making weapon-grade uranium metal and shaping it into nuclear weapon components”.
Fox News reported in April that US intelligence believed Iran could be using Pickaxe Mountain to store its stockpile of an estimate 440kg of highly enriched uranium – enough to build 10 atomic bombs. US officials have said the stockpile is now likely to be buried under rubble. The International Atomic Energy Agency has suggested it could be divided between several locations.
Michael Mulroy, a former US senior defence official with responsibility for the Middle East, who served under Trump, said the site was suspicious enough to be considered a target.
“I think Pickaxe is high on the list of targets and it should be,” he told The i Paper, noting concerns over recent Iranian military activity at the facility.
But it is unclear if the US military has the means to inflict serious damage, with previous strikes on Iran’s buried nuclear sites producing inconclusive results.
Trump has claimed that strikes during Operation Midnight Hammer, using 14-tonne GBU-57 bunker busters, the largest conventional munition in the US arsenal, succeeded in “obliterating” their targets. But US intelligence assessments have reported that Iran retains much of its nuclear capability, with high levels of uncertainty around the damage inflicted.
Mark Cancian, a former US army colonel and now a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the strikes had “disrupted Iran’s activities” at nuclear sites but it was unclear how deep the munitions had penetrated.
Cancian said he doubted if “anybody really knows” whether the US could do serious damage to Pickaxe Mountain.
Mulroy said that if the site “can’t be penetrated because of the granite formation then striking entry points periodically is an option”.
David Albright, the founder and president of the Institute for Science and International Security, believes there could be vulnerabilities to exploit.
As per President Trump’s recent statement regarding Pickaxe Mountain, we published a report “What to Know About Pickaxe Mountain”.The report details key information regarding the Pickaxe Mountain facility under construction just south of the Natanz Nuclear Complex. The report… pic.twitter.com/d2zsPKq9pp
— Inst for Science (@TheGoodISIS) July 14, 2026“Vulnerabilities may exist that can be exploited by deep earth penetrating weapons,” he wrote in a paper published this week. “An attack on Pickaxe Mountain could target the above ground incoming power supply lines, the location of ventilation shafts or equipment, and the open tunnel entrances.”
But aerial attacks would also present risks. Operation Midnight Hammer involved the deployment of 125 aircraft, and while the operation did not result in any known casualties, the US has now lost dozens of warplanes during the conflict this year.
US stocks of GBU-57s are also said to be running low. A US government document in February stated that “procurement and sustainment activity is critically needed to replenish the inventory of GBU-57’s expended during Operation Midnight Hammer”.
Iran has responded to Trump’s latest claims by warning that an attack on Pickaxe Mountain would trigger further escalation.
“If Trump carries out his threats, we will respond destructively – and the price will be paid by American soldiers and his regional allies,” a Iranian regime spokesperson told CNN.
Meanwhile, some US analysts have suggested a ground attack on the facility.
Andrea Stricker, a researcher at the Foundation for the Defence of Democracies, a hawkish Washington think-tank, told the New York Sun that Trump “should not give Iran the opportunity to finish a hardened nuclear site where it could resurrect new enrichment and weaponisation capabilities”. She said this could require a “raid to disable the facility”.
Trump is also reportedly considering other escalatory options in order to force Iran to accept a deal that would include ceding control of the Strait of Hormuz and curbs on its nuclear programme. These could include attacks on Iran’s energy sites, or seizing strategic islands.
But Iran maintains that it will not bend under fire. The White House, however, appears to believe it could – and that the secretive Pickaxe Mountain could hold the key.
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