Andy Burnham is set to enter Downing Street on Monday – and speculation has been swirling over who will join him at the Cabinet table.
Burnham has pledged to govern differently from his predecessor, setting out plans for what he has called the “biggest rebalancing of power” in the country’s history.
That includes a new devolution settlement and a “Number 10 North” operation based in Manchester.
Allies say the shift is not a last-minute pivot – former transport secretary Louise Haigh, one of his closest supporters, has said Burnham has been planning for the role “for at least the last year”.
Despite that preparation, Burnham has so far refused to be drawn on who will serve in his top team, with Haigh telling the BBC he was not “beholden” to anyone and preferred to set out his agenda before building his team around it.
Here is our best assessment of who could land in six of the top jobs – and why.
Chancellor
Ed Miliband had been tipped as a candidate for Chancellor, but there are signs he may be about to miss out (Photo: Alishia Abodunde/Getty Images)Caroline Wheeler – Political Editor: If there is one position generating the most speculation, it is Chancellor.
While Ed Miliband has long been regarded as the frontrunner, as The i Paper exclusively revealed yesterday, I believe the job may now be slipping from his grasp.
Instead, Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper and Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood are increasingly being linked to the Treasury. There are suggestions that Burnham wants another woman in a Great Office of State after Rachel Reeves became the first woman in history to serve as Chancellor.
Richard Vaughan – Chief Political Correspondent: Undoubtedly the decision most fraught with difficulties, Burnham can ill-afford to get his choice of Chancellor wrong.
Miliband could spook the markets, which plays against him.
Speculation is mounting around Mahmood – but could Burnham stick with Reeves?
Eleanor Langford – Political Reporter: There’s a difficult balancing act at play here – does Burnham want to reassure business and markets with a careful pick, or does he want to signal a change of direction?
Miliband falls short on both these fronts – his opposition to new North Sea oil and gas licences has unsettled businesses and unions alike, and he carries the baggage of having been the Labour leader who failed to beat the Conservatives in 2015.
Keeping Reeves in place is likely out of the question – she’s far too closely linked to Starmer – but putting another woman in her place may be important for a Labour Party that has never managed to install one as leader. That brings Cooper and Mahmood into the frame, though both are reportedly keen to keep their current briefs.
Pat McFadden’s name keeps surfacing too, less because anyone is enthusiastic about him and more because he is seen as steady – that alone might be the deciding factor.
Home Secretary
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood could be kept on in her current post (Photo: Rasid Necati Aslim/Anadolu via Getty Images)Caroline Wheeler – Political Editor: At the Home Office, my expectation is that Shabana Mahmood would remain in post if she is not moved to the Treasury.
But should she be promoted elsewhere, it would create opportunities for others.
Former health secretary Wes Streeting would be an obvious contender if he misses out on the Foreign Office, while John Healey’s reputation as a dependable and experienced operator could also put him in the frame.
Richard Vaughan – Chief Political Correspondent: Mahmood has made significant inroads running the Home Office and is understood to be eager to remain in post.
But this is likely to be reliant on who takes over the Treasury.
Should Mahmood be moved on, then Streeting could be rewarded with one of the Great Offices of State for his decision to stand aside for Burnham.
Eleanor Langford – Political Reporter: Mahmood is still the safest bet to stay put, and the expectation in Westminster is that she’ll be kept in place to maintain stability.
The trade-off may be a softening of some of her tougher immigration proposals, after ex-deputy prime minister Angela Rayner branded elements of them “un-British”.
That’s a balance that faces anyone who takes this famously fraught post. Streeting handled the repeated doctors strikes he faced as health secretary well, so could be ready for a tougher brief.
But, at time when immigration one of the biggest concerns raised by voters, continuity may be the best option.
Foreign Secretary
David Miliband, President and CEO of the International Rescue Committee, could be given a seat in the Lords so he can be appointed as Foreign Secretary – a post he held under Gordon Brown (Photo: Alishia Abodunde/Getty Images)Caroline Wheeler – Political Editor: The strongest name I continue to hear for Foreign Secretary is Wes Streeting.
He has emerged as a leading contender for one of the most senior positions in government and would bring considerable political weight to the role.
However, there remains a wildcard candi David Miliband.
Speculation persists that Burnham could follow the precedent set by Rishi Sunak when he returned David Cameron to frontline politics via the House of Lords, opening the door for Miliband to return to government.
Richard Vaughan – Chief Political Correspondent: Yvette Cooper has gone to significant lengths to ensure she stays at the Foreign Office but there is speculation she is also in line for Chancellor.
Burnham could be tempted to promote from the 2024 intake, handing Hamish Falconer his first Cabinet role, or even seek to bring back Emily Thornberry, but David Miliband appears to be the frontrunner.
Eleanor Langford – Political Reporter: Cooper is said to want to stay in post, but her name keeps being drawn into Treasury speculation, which makes this one of the harder jobs to call.
If she does move, Streeting and Miliband are consistently linked with the Foreign Office.
Miliband has held the post before under Gordon Brown and has focused much of his time since leaving Parliament on foreign affairs as CEO of the International Rescue Committee.
But he’d need a seat in the Lords first.
Work and Pensions
Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden is another current Cabinet minister that could keep his job (Photo: Carl Court/Getty Images)Caroline Wheeler – Political Editor: I expect Pat McFadden could be asked to remain at the Department for Work and Pensions.
Having already been tasked with tackling the NEETs crisis – the number of young people not in education, employment, or training – alongside Alan Milburn, he appears well placed to continue that work in government.
Richard Vaughan – Chief Political Correspondent: McFadden is another to be linked with the job of Chancellor, described as a “safe pair of hands”.
But bringing down the welfare bill is essential to Burnham’s survival, so keeping McFadden in post seems the most likely option.
Eleanor Langford – Political Reporter: As my colleagues note, McFadden looks the safest of all the senior briefs to predict.
Welfare reform – namely, cutting the ever-growing benefits bill – is central to the next phase of the Government’s survival.
In such a sensitive role, you’d likely want someone tough and dependable who can work well with the Treasury – a description that fits McFadden well.
Health
Who get health secretary is harder to call, with Business Secretary Peter Kyle touted as one contender (Photo: Ben Montgomery/Getty Images)Caroline Wheeler – Political Editor: One of the most significant appointments will be Health Secretary, given Burnham’s long-standing focus on health and social care.
This is one job where there has been little chatter, save for an early suggestion that Burnham could be lining up the surgeon-turned-MP Zubir Ahmed.
It is possible that Reeves could be handed the department, with a mandate to tackle the social care crisis that has eluded successive governments.
However, if Burnham wants to make a genuinely eye-catching appointment, Ed Miliband could be a wildcard choice.
While neither is conventionally associated with the role, both would have the political authority required to drive through the kind of far-reaching reforms many believe are needed.
Richard Vaughan – Chief Political Correspondent: Burnham has made a point of saying his Cabinet will reflect the broad church of the Labour Party.
Could it mean someone from the right of the party is handed the tough job of overseeing the NHS, perhaps Peter Kyle or, in a twist of fate, Wes Streeting once again?
Eleanor Langford – Political Reporter: James Murray, in post only a matter of months, looks the most exposed of the current ministerial team, having had limited time to make his mark.
However, ending long-running resident doctors’ strike action is a point in his favour if Burnham wants a quieter, technocratic Health Secretary.
The more widely tipped outcome is a swift comeback for Streeting, who gave up his own leadership ambitions to back Burnham and has already run the department once.
Moving him back to finish reforms he started would be the least disruptive option, even if Cabinet-making rarely follows the path of least resistance.
Housing
Angela Rayner could return to her previous post in Cabinet as Housing Secretary (Photo: James Manning/Pool Photo via AP)Caroline Wheeler – Political Editor: Angela Rayner is likely to return to Housing Secretary.
The role is closely associated with her political priorities – and she would be expected to play a central role in delivering Burnham’s domestic agenda and his plans for the biggest post-war council house building programme.
Richard Vaughan – Chief Political Correspondent: The departure of Steve Reed from the Cabinet is among the most guaranteed exit after Sir Keir Starmer himself.
Speculation is rife that Rayner will be given the job of overseeing the major council house building programme that Burnham wants to see.
Eleanor Langford – Political Reporter: Rayner is the strong favourite here, and it’s arguably the most settled prediction of the six.
The departure of Reed looks close to certain, and Rayner – now cleared by HMRC over her tax affairs – is widely expected to return.
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