Scottie Scheffler is favored at the Open Championship, but our FRACAS projection model identifies plenty of contenders as Royal Birkdale gets set to host the year’s final major.
Given how the major season has gone, are you not quite sure what to make of the most elite tier of men’s professional golf?
You’re not alone. Our FRACAS projection model is still sorting it out, too.
When the Masters came around, Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy were the sport’s clear 1-2. Then they finished that way (or, well, 2-1, with McIlroy first) at Augusta National, and it was easy to figure that Scheffler would grab one of the next three majors and McIlroy would tear through the PGA Tour season.
Neither has happened. Scheffler is still sitting on just one win this year – at the American Express back in January – after having a combined 13 in 2024 and ’25, including the Open at Royal Portrush last year. McIlroy hasn’t won again and has played in only five events since Augusta, not finishing better than in a tie for seventh.
Scheffler, though, has so often been right there on a leaderboard; he finished second in a playoff at the Travelers Championship all of three weeks ago. But he also finally missed a cut last week for the first time since 2022. He’s still the best player in the world, but his form remains not quite where he’d like it.
Such is the landscape heading into the Open Championship at Royal Birkdale, beginning Thursday. Scheffler once again has the highest win probability (12.1%), per FRACAS (Field Rating and Course-Adjusted Strokes Gained). That’s more than twice the probability of anyone else, but after him, there’s a big jumble.
The Open Championship Viewing Schedule (All Times ET)
Thursday (Round 1) and Friday (Round 2) – 1:30-4 a.m. (NBC Sports Network/Peacock), 4 a.m.-3:30 p.m. (USA) Saturday (Round 3) – 5-7 a.m. (USA), 7 a.m.-3 p.m. (NBC/Peacock) Sunday (Round 4) – 4-7 a.m. (USA), 7 a.m.-2 p.m. (NBC/Peacock)It’s Matt Fitzpatrick, not Rory, who’s next at 5.1%, followed by the back-to-back green jacket recipient. After those three, there are eight golfers whose win probability rounds to 3 or 4 percent, according to the model. Jon Rahm, a hot major pick earlier in the season, is among the group with the 10th-best chance (2.5%) to lift the Claret Jug for what would be the first time.
The year’s three major champions are McIlroy, Aaron Rai (PGA Championship) and Wyndham Clark (U.S. Open). Only one of those came from truly off the board: Rai, who had the 52nd-highest win probability (0.3%) going into the year’s second major. But it’s worth being open-minded about a real surprise at Birkdale.
Bunched Crop of Contenders After Scheffler
Even the Open golfers right after McIlroy in win probability are tightly bunched, ranging from Tommy Fleetwood (4.3%) to Clark (4.1%), Sam Burns (3.8%), Si Woo Kim (3.1%), Viktor Hovland (3.0%), Collin Morikawa (2.8%) and Rahm. Joaquin Niemann (2.5%) is nipping at Rahm before the top 15 is rounded out by Robert MacIntyre (2.2%), Ben Griffin (2.1%), Chris Gotterup (2.1%) and J.J. Spaun (1.9%).
(In addition to the full probabilities in This Week’s Golf Predictions, note we also have a telling player breakdown in our Golf Advanced Stats Zone.)
Fitzpatrick has a U.S. Open title to his name, but he’s a new name this high up on a win probability leaderboard. The same, minus the preexisting major win, is true of Fleetwood. FRACAS is a little higher than betting markets on Fitzpatrick, who usually appears third behind Scheffler and McIlroy and in roughly a tie with his English countryman, Fleetwood, on the boards.
Why the elevated belief in these two European Ryder Cup stalwarts? For one thing, their forms are obvious. Fitzpatrick won three times between March and April, including against a tough RBC Heritage field immediately following his T-18 at the Masters. (He tacked on a team golf win with his brother, Alex, at the Zurich Classic the next week.) He cooled in May and early June but has three top-four finishes in his last four starts and very well would’ve won the Scottish Open last weekend if he hadn’t had one of his only below-average chipping and pitching performances of the year. His cross-handed chipping is one of golf’s great examples that there’s more than one way to bake a cake.
Fleetwood has been a little less hot than Fitzpatrick but arguably more consistent, with just one showing outside the top 15 in seven events over the last two-plus months. That Fleetwood sits on just one tour win – the Tour Championship last year – remains confounding.
There’s also course fit to consider at the Open, and not just that English players came up playing a wee bit more links golf than their American counterparts. Birkdale is a par-70 layout, leaving few simple birdie opportunities out there for the taking. The week will be about bogey avoidance and iron precision, which will suit players nicely on four gettable par 3s (none longer than 241 yards on the card) and the course’s litany of playable par 4s.
FRACAS does not expect driving distance to be the superior skill this week, and indeed, Fitzpatrick and Fleetwood profile as ball-strikers who are adept with creativity around the greens. (Creativity was certainly the word of the day when Jordan Spieth won here in 2017, though the R&A did not have the infrastructure to track detailed strokes-gained data at that tournament. It will this time.) Birkdale is somewhat like Harbour Town in South Carolina, where Fitzpatrick got his RBC Heritage win.
Another intriguing contender on this list: the 26-year-old Gotterup, who won in both January and February, then cooled for a while, but claimed the John Deere Classic two weeks ago and put up a T-11 that could’ve been better at the Scottish Open. The glaring weakness for him is shaky work around the greens, as a links course demands precision there. But he has the toolkit to put himself in the mix on such a course, as he demonstrated when he finished third at the Open last year despite not doing much around the greens. It’s easy to expect another win or two from him before the 2027 Ryder Cup.
RT=Royal Troon; SA=St. Andrews; RL=Royal Liverpool; RP=Royal PortrushThe Open: Potential Dark Horses to Look At
There’s a 70.5% chance the Open winner comes from the 25 highest-slotted players on FRACAS’s board. That’s much lower than the 80-something range at the typical major.
But who could be our spoilers? Here are three educated throws at the dartboard:
Justin Rose (1.0% chance, 27th-highest). Just take this lovely quote from him when asked about links golf: “We love to be prepared. I think ultimately at an Open Championship, your preparation needs to be – you can’t perfect something. Play with creativity and play in the moment. Just play with a lot of flair in the moment. See a shot, bump and run. You might not have practiced it, you might not have hit that shot for a long, long time, but if you see it, go with it.” Yeah, don’t doubt him.
Aaron Rai (0.7% chance, 36th-highest). Two major titles in one year would be truly insane, sure, but consider this: Of the Open’s 156 players, Rai is the one FRACAS believes will get the strongest bump over his baseline level of play from his course fit at Birkdale.
Nicolai Hojgaard (0.4% chance, 58th-highest). The Dane projects to be one of the Open field’s best players on short par 3s, a classification that covers three of the four shortest holes at Royal Birkdale. He’s a candidate to gain a lot on the field on those holes, and his form is trending in a good direction lately. Just not that good, as he followed three straight missed cuts with a T-14 and T-26 at the Travelers and Scottish Open, respectively.
For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.
The Open Championship Predictions: FRACAS Likes Scheffler, But Who Else? Opta Analyst.
Hence then, the article about the open championship predictions fracas likes scheffler but who else was published today ( ) and is available on The Analyst ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( The Open Championship Predictions: FRACAS Likes Scheffler, But Who Else? )
Also on site :
- How US commerce secretary's Epstein links were uncovered by British whistleblower
- Kendra Scott’s ‘Stunning’ $53 Adjustable Bracelet at Amazon ‘Goes With Everyday Outfits’ and Comes in 32 Styles
- Coffee Mate Brings Back Harry Potter Creamers With Magical New Flavor Fans Are Dying to Get Their Hands On