The twin setbacks leave Republicans with a 51-47 majority in the Senate as lawmakers begin what is expected to be one of the busiest stretches of the year. With only seven weeks of scheduled session before the November midterm elections, Republicans must avert another government shutdown, while deciding whether to renew an expired foreign surveillance authority, pass Trump’s request for billions of dollars in additional defense funding tied to the conflict with Iran, and confirm several of his nominees, including Todd Blanche for attorney general.
Still, the absence of Graham and McConnell threatens to complicate committee work and floor action at a moment when time is already scarce.
McConnell announced Sunday that he remains unable to return after being hospitalized in June following a fall. The former Republican leader disclosed for the first time that he had briefly lost consciousness, later developed pneumonia, and is recovering at a rehabilitation facility. Doctors have advised him against returning to the Senate for now, though he said he intends to come back as soon as he is able.
Here’s where Graham’s death and McConnell’s absence could shape the Senate in the coming weeks:
Graham served on the Senate Judiciary Committee, which is scheduled to consider Blanche's nomination this week. Without Graham, Republicans still maintain a one-vote majority on the panel, but it’s not clear that every remaining Republican will support advancing Blanche’s nomination.
Avoiding Another Shutdown
Congress must pass spending legislation before Sept. 30 to prevent a partial government shutdown, but negotiations have already stalled over disagreements about defense spending. Senate Democrats have insisted they will not support appropriations bills unless increases for the military are paired with comparable increases for domestic programs.
Trump has urged Republicans to pursue another reconciliation package before the midterms, a process that allows legislation affecting taxes and spending to pass with a simple majority rather than the Senate’s usual 60-vote threshold. That effort now faces procedural and political hurdles.
The Trump Administration has proposed including roughly $350 billion in defense funding along with other Republican priorities. But even after Republicans fill Graham’s committee seat, leaders must still persuade skeptical GOP senators that another lengthy partisan budget bill is worth pursuing during an already compressed legislative calendar.
Iran Spending Request
Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins has indicated the committee intends to hold a hearing on the proposal, though Democrats are unlikely to support the additional funding absent a broader bipartisan agreement. McConnell had been expected to play a central role in that debate as chair of the Appropriations defense subcommittee, which has jurisdiction over military spending. Graham had also been among the Senate’s strongest advocates for increased defense spending and an assertive U.S. foreign policy.
The legislation had been one of the few major foreign policy initiatives drawing support from both parties, owing in large part to Graham's longstanding relationships with both Republican hawks and Democratic supporters of Ukraine. Blumenthal said after Graham's death that he remained committed to advancing the sanctions package.
Renewing FISA
Lawmakers must also decide whether to revive an expired provision of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, a politically divisive issue that has split both parties over the balance between national security and civil liberties. Graham and McConnell had both been central figures in Republican efforts to restore the surveillance authority, particularly as senators scrutinize Trump's intelligence leadership following his appointment of Bill Pulte as acting director of national intelligence and the pending confirmation of Jay Clayton to lead the agency permanently.
Renewing the surveillance authority was already expected to require delicate negotiations among Republicans with differing views on government surveillance. With Graham gone and McConnell absent, Senate leaders lose two lawmakers with deep institutional knowledge of intelligence policy and longstanding credibility on national security issues, making an already difficult debate even more uncertain as the legislative clock ticks toward the midterm elections.
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