As most of Britain continues baking in the third heatwave of the year, you might be wondering what’s behind the prolonged hot weather – and how long it can last.
There is no immediate end in sight. Seasonal forecasts are that the UK will have a hotter summer than average, with some temperature records already having been broken.
Those who are planning a holiday in Britain may be relieved to hear that the current dry conditions don’t mean that all the rain is being stored up for August.
But the unusual weather has many unwelcome effects, with a new analysis having shown that the first two heatwaves of the year alone led to 2,700 more deaths than average in England and Wales.
And thanks to the recent lack of rainfall, some areas of the UK are also at more risk of wildfires. “The heatwave is only part of the story,” said Dr Stephen Burt, a meteorologist at the University of Reading. “Behind the high temperatures, a serious drought has been building for months.”
British weather is inherently variable, with peak summer temperatures varying markedly from one year to the next.
But against those ups and downs, there is a longer-term trend of global average temperatures getting warmer. And that seems to be making extreme weather events, including heatwaves, more common and more severe.
The current heatwave affecting most of England and Wales is caused by a high pressure system over the UK, kept in place by strong jet stream winds to the north. “Persistent high pressure is allowing long sunny spells for much of the country and temperatures to rise,” said a Met Office spokesperson.
“When you add in the heatwave that parts of Europe are experiencing, which is sending some warmth our way, then you get a few factors leading to the warmth.”
Long-range forecast for heat
High pressure systems may come and go. But in early June, the Met Office predicted in its long-range forecast that this summer would be hotter than average. “It follows that there is an increased chance of heatwave conditions developing at times,” said a percipient blog post on the weather service’s website.
Long-range forecasts are notoriously likely to get things wrong wrong, because of the chaotic nature of global weather systems. But long-term predictions on temperature are more likely to be correct than ones about rainfall or cloud cover, said Professor Andrew Charlton-Perez, a meteorologist at the University of Reading. “Temperature is one of the more accurate variables that we have,” he said.
In fact, 15 days above 30°C have already been recorded so far this year, beating the record of 14 days set by the summer of 1976 – and that’s with six weeks of summer left to go.
Impact of El Niño
Contrary to some claims online, the current hot weather is not being caused by the “supercharged” El Niño weather system that has recently begun.
El Niño is a cycle that switches between warmer and cooler sea temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean every few years. This has knock-on effects on weather globally, particularly in Central America, Indonesia and Australia.
The UK tends to be less affected, but may experience colder winters and warmer summers in the El Niño phase. However, the Pacific warming has only recently begun, and any impact usually takes several months to be felt in the UK, said Professor Charlton-Perez.
Drought is building
While the UK was exceptionally wet at the start of the year, since March there has been less than half the average rainfall, especially in the last two months. “There has only been ten days of rain so far in summer 2026,” said Dr Burt.
If the dry conditions carry on, there will be a higher than usual risk of wildfires – like the ones in north Wales, Greater Manchester and Derbyshire last week. Windy weather raises the risk.
Professor Hannah Cloke, a hydrologist at the University of Reading, said people should be having barbecues in parks and in the countryside, and prepare buckets of water if having them at home, in case of sparks. “A fire from sparks can get out of control very quickly,” she said.
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