In the entire history of MLB, there have been 1,516 individual seasons in which a player hit at least 30 home runs. Likewise, there have been 1,940 individual seasons in which a player stole at least 30 bases. But there have been just 79 occurrences of a player doing BOTH in one season (only 51 different players). The Chicago Cubs own three of those 79 seasons, with Sammy Sosa doing it twice and Pete Crow-Armstrong doing it once (last year).
Chicago Cubs 30-30 Seasons:
Sammy Sosa (1993): 33 HRs, 36 SBs Sammy Sosa (1995): 36 HRs, 34 SBs Pete Crow-Armstrong (2025): 31 HRs, 35 SBsAnd it looks like Pete Crow-Armstrong is on pace to do it again, in consecutive seasons as a barely-24 year-old, elite-gloved center fielder.
Pete Crow-Armstrong HR/SB Pace
As of today, Pete Crow-Armstrong has 19 home runs and 23 stolen bases. So right off the bat, he’s close to hitting the 20-20 mark before the All-Star break. And that, of course, puts him well ahead of pace to reach 30-30 again before the end of the year.
But what marks are we actually looking at here? There are a couple ways to go about that. In terms of what he’s just on pace for (a blunt estimation), PCA should finish with 33.8 HRs and 40.9 stolen bases. But that’s assuming he plays in every single game AND keeps up his pace. I’m not sure that’s exactly a fair estimation. It’s also an unnecessary one, since we have actual projection systems that factor in his performance alongside expected playing time.
To that end, some projections:
STEAMER: 31 HRs, 38 SBs ZiPS: 31 HRs, 38 SBs ZiPS DC: 32 HRs, 39 SBs THE BAT: 34 HRs, 39 SBsThere is some overlap in the methodology there, but still. No matter which way you slice it, the projection models (some of which include projected playing time) are envisioning another 30-30 season for PCA in 2026. That would give him two, immediately tying Sammy Sosa for the franchise record.
That would also make him just ONE of 18(!) players with more than one 30-30 season to his name, joining a pretty elite list. And that would also give him plenty of time to join the inner circle of 3+ (Jose Ramirez, Howard Johnson, Alfonso Soriano, Bobby Bonds, Barry Bonds).
Now feels like a good time to remind you of two things:
(1) In the first half of last season, PCA had 25 HRs and 27 SBs. And while he acheived his 30-30 status eventually, he did manage just 6 more HRs and 8 more SBs in the second half of the season. That’s why you can’t just double the output, so to speak.
(2) HOWEVER, as we’ve discussed a thousand times (and as anyone with eyes can see), this year’s version of Pete Crow-Armstrong is entirely different than the guy we watched last year.
I’m not trying to take away from his accomplishments, but I do think the sustainability factor this time around is miles better. Just look at how some of his stats have evolved from last season to this:
4.5 BB% –> 10.4 BB% 41.4 O-Swing% –> 35.7 O-Swing% 89.5 MPH EV –> 90.4 MPH EV 41.6 Hard% –> 49.6 hard% 72.7 MPH bat speed –> 74.8 MPHAnd that’s just a small sample. He’s also getting ahead in the count WAY more often, whiffing way less often, and making more contact on pitches in the zone. You know this. We’ve discussed it to death. I bring it back up only to both acknowledge what happened last year and to reiterate that things very well could be different this time around.
And, as it turns out, that might just mean he makes a little history.
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