This competition we face today was on full display during the reception for President Donald Trump's May State Visit to Beijing, China's remarkable infrastructure and architectural achievements televised for the world to see, and broad reporting of China's dramatic technological advances (from human-like robots, to EVs, to solar panels, to widespread use of AI) revived a recurring multi-year debate among international observers and some Americans as well: is America in decline while is China on the rise? Numerous Chinese leaders reinforced this narrative.
For their part, many U.S. leaders have rejected this dark story of decline. But as several surveys have consistently indicated, optimism about our country's outlook has undeniably weakened. Stridently polarized and partisan American political discourse, attacks on our educational system and advanced research programs, major fragmentation in our alliances, a decline in confidence in government institutions over the years, the undermining of efforts to narrow socio-economic inequity, frequent federal shutdowns, mushrooming national debt, and a deteriorating sense of community all feed into a negative perception of America's future.
Of course, an open discussion of the formidable domestic divisions, problems, and challenges we face is nonetheless warranted as we contemplate the next several decades. Many fundamental changes are necessary to strengthen the outlook for the U.S. One frequently overlooked but essential aspect of America's past strength, now under severe domestic stress and the target of harmful policy threats, is our historic attractiveness and openness to bright, talented, and hardworking people from around the world.
Roughly two decades ago, the debate over America's decline drew a lot of attention after the traumas and failures of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars and the 2008 financial crisis. At around this time, I visited Singapore and had the opportunity to visit with Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew, in my view, one of the wisest and most thoughtful figures of the 20th Century.
I asked Lee if he thought the U.S. was in decline. His answer was emphatic, succinct, and declarative. “No.”
Lee added that China had brilliant scientists, outstanding researchers, excellent engineers, and highly productive workers, all on or near par with the U.S. But it did not have a history of attracting large numbers of skilled and talented people from other nations, which put it at a disadvantage vis-à-vis the U.S.
Preserving America’s greatest strength
Looking to the future, Lee's wise words on these issues need to be revisited today. In numerous areas, the U.S., while successfully curbing the flow of undocumented immigration, has taken harsh actions to significantly discourage the inflow of legal immigration, including many of the “best and brightest” that Lee was referring to. Various policies have made it extremely difficult for immigrants pursuing legal procedures to enter this country and stay here to work, establish and build world-class technology companies, and become productive members of their communities. Greater difficulties and high levels of uncertainty in obtaining H1-B visas have been cited by many highly talented potential and current immigrants I have spoken to as significant impediments.
One argument for such impediments is that restricting access to the U.S. makes it easier for native born Americans to get jobs. This is not a new narrative, nor particular to the U.S., but there is scant evidence that this is true. Studies show that skilled foreign-born workers complement, and frequently create large numbers of new jobs for, American-born workers.
This is not to say that American workers don’t face challenges. Technological advancements in fields like AI have made it clear that major improvements in how we train Americans with the skills needed to secure jobs in today’s and tomorrow's economy are vitally important. Many schools at all levels of our education system are failing to produce large numbers of graduates with work-ready skills.
History has taught us this lesson before. In the early 1920s, Congress passed legislation to reduce European immigration by 80%. Afterward, there was no measurable increase in jobs or wages for native born Americans. And when the U.S. ended the Bracero Program, which had attracted millions of agricultural workers from Mexico in 1964, there was no subsequent reciprocal increase in jobs for native-born Americans.
To be sure, some job displacement does take place from immigration, even fully documented immigration, in some communities. But the solution is one that would benefit all of society. Enhanced training and financial support for reskilling can help American workers find new jobs and help the American economy adapt to new technological advancements. There are too few programs and insufficient resources available to do this. But any displacement by immigrants is limited and often dwarfed, as Card's research found, by job increases from new or expanding businesses that immigrants generate. And many of the best and brightest scientists and researchers spurned by America are going to other countries and are hired by businesses abroad that compete with our own—including, as Lee anticipated, China.
America, for the first time in nearly a century, faces in China a peer military, economic, technological, and geopolitical competitor—in scale and skill. When you look closely at this competition, you quickly find that one key component of China’s success in competing has been its ability to augment an already highly skilled and talented workforce with the top talent from around the world.
This lead goes back even before we became a nation 250 years ago, to immigrants like Alexander Hamilton, who created our remarkably successful financial system. America’s 13 original colonies were teeming with adventurous foreigners who formed the bedrock of our dynamic economy and democracy.
If Lee were alive today and observed the growing, harsh barriers our policies are imposing on skilled, high-quality immigration, he might come to a very different, and less optimistic, conclusion about America's future than he did a few decades ago.
The question Americans must ask now is: If others see immigration as our greatest strength, why can’t we see it ourselves?
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