Westminster’s summer parties are in full swing and stuffed full of cheerful Tories.
But why are Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives so upbeat? They’re firmly in third or fourth place, running around 18-20 per cent in the current polling averages, well behind Reform UK who lead comfortably on around 25-26 per cent.
Reform were the clear winners at May’s local council elections and Labour is expecting a poll bounce off the back of installing Andy Burnham, who is expected to become prime minister on 20 July.
“We are very chipper,” a member of the shadow Cabinet told The i Paper, canape in hand. “It’s simple really; in Kemi we think we have found a leader we can get behind.”
Other senior Tories put the mood shift down to the decline of factionalism now former challenger Robert Jenrick is no longer vying for the leadership.
Jenrick joined Reform UK in January after Badenoch uncovered his plans to defect and sacked him. Another member of the Shadow Cabinet said: “We can date the mood shift to when Rob buggered off. Such a relief not to have to deal with his nonsense anymore.”
“Kemi doesn’t have to look over her shoulder the whole time, so she has more freedom,” an ally added. “Since she got rid of Rob, there is no alternative; there’s nobody who could remotely challenge her, so she is confident and secure in her position.”
Insiders say three key appointments as “architecture” around her have allowed Badenoch to focus on her job. They are Henry Newman, her Chief of Staff, Conservative CEO Mark McInnes, a Scottish peer credited with the recent by-election win in Aberdeen, and Stephen Gilbert, a Welsh peer and longtime political advisor. Her Parliamentary Private Secretary John Glen and spokesman Dylan Sharpe are also central to the operation.
And she appears to be running a happy ship. “We like each other as a Shadow Cabinet. We have a proper discussion. She goes around the table, listens to what people say, so they feel involved, as opposed to the model that we all know from in government, where Cabinet is just theatrical and it’s all pre-scripted,” a member of the Shadow Cabinet told The i Paper.
Badenoch ‘ballsy and a fighter’
Badenoch’s biggest cut-through comes when she takes no prisoners. Attacking Rachel Reeves at the Budget – she accused the Chancellor of “wallowing in self-pity” and “whining about mansplaining” – drew gasps of outrage from Labour MPs but delighted Tories. Ditto last week when she called Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson a “spiteful class warrior” for putting VAT on private school fees.
“The public wants somebody ballsy and a fighter, right? So, it’s actually essential that she does this,” the ally remarked. “It’s giving us an opening which we didn’t have before.”
She also picked up political credit for drawing attention to unfair student loan interest rates, and she was quicker than Starmer to recognise the public mood was in favour of banning social media for under-16s.
Her response to the murder of Henry Nowak and its appalling handling by the police also showed she could do nuance. Where Farage expressed “pure, cold rage”, Badenoch focused on race-blind policing and calming community tensions.
But even if people are starting to pay attention to Badenoch, there is no indication yet that voters have either forgiven the wider Tory Party or are even prepared to give them a hearing.
According to Opinium’s monthly poll for June, the Tory score on being in touch with ordinary people is at -31, representing what most people think -31, and being ready for government at -26. However, the Conservatives lead Labour on several comparative party attributes, including being united, knowing what they stand for, and having a clear sense of purpose.
“She’s definitely finding cut-through now with voters,” one Tory MP said. “People say to me spontaneously what a good job she is doing. They might still be saying how shit the Tories are, but that is a huge progress after two years.”
Tory insiders say the party is more united after the departure of Robert Jenrick (L) seen here with Reform UK leader Nigel Farage (Photo: Henry Nicholls/AFP via Getty Images)If Badenoch’s ratings are an indicator of a Conservative resurgence, then that puts Reform in jeopardy, but if she’s an outlier her party is still in the danger zone.
“The next issue is getting the party to catch up with the leader, and she needs to bring on younger, fresher talent and have a reshuffle at some point, then introduce those people to the country to flesh out the offering,” one Tory MP advised.
The Restore UK factor
And although the Tories were non-starters in the Makerfield by-election which delivered Burnham back to Parliament, they noted how Restore Britain ate into Reform UK’s vote share. Some Restore supporters say Nigel Farage has diluted his party’s appeal by allowing former Tories such as Jenrick to join.
“Farage thought bringing over Rob and others would bring over more sensible Tories,” one Tory MP said. “In fact, it hasn’t won over many of those people, but it has fed the betrayal narrative, which we hear on the doorstep, that Reform are a bunch of same old bloody Tories.”
“The best hope for us is we win back the middle-class professionals. Come the next election, assuming Burnham goes long, I think there’ll be Reform waverers who don’t really like us that much but think we just a bit more capable of governing. I think there’ll be a tactical effect, so some Libs, and even some affluent Labour, will come to us if they think that we are the best chance of beating Labour or Reform, and so we could benefit from tactical votes,” the MP added.
Right now, Badenoch has one advantage Farage doesn’t: Parliament. As Leader of the Opposition, she gets six questions. Apart from two questions for the Liberal Democrats, the other opposition parties have no guaranteed questions and instead must hope to be chosen in the ballot.
After a rocky start at Prime Minister’s Questions her growing confidence owes as much to Starmer’s failures to articulate a vision and his self-inflicted wounds. She has had advice via text from her predecessors, including Boris Johnson, David Cameron and Iain Duncan Smith.
Johnson spoke at the opening of the party’s new headquarters in London and has been in touch with Badenoch about how best to take on Farage.
“Is it not wonderful, poetic, beautiful to see Reform being devoured, haemorrhaging votes on the right to this party called Restore, which sounds like a sort of hair-loss potion or something?” Johnson told the gathering.
Andy Burnham is a different challenge
Burnham, meanwhile, is an untested proposition. Badenoch admits the prospective Labour leader is “genial,” so her PMQs prep team may advise her to adjust her style from start-a-fight-in-an-empty-room to take-the-mickey instead. As yet, no-one has taken on the job of pretending to be Burnham in rehearsals.
Her first attempt at dismissing Burnham as “a pair of eyelashes and a black t-shirt” was successfully punctured by a social media video from the man himself: “It’s navy blue, actually,” he replied.
“We’re going to play the party, not the man,” a Shadow Cabinet minister said. “It’s the Labour Party collectively that seems addicted to putting up taxes.”
Burnham’s vision for devolution does at least emphasise place and belonging instead of Starmer’s bland missions. And it might be enough to guarantee the ex-Manchester mayor can hold on to swathes of northern England. Badenoch needs to convince voters her party is more than regional force vying for votes with the Liberal Democrats in former southern strongholds.
The other question is whether Badenoch can capitalise on Reform’s current wobbles. Farage is dogged by constant questions over whether he has declared all his financial interests and was tetchy while struggling to explain a £5m donation from a crypto billionaire. His allies are meanwhile briefing he needs a break.
Nerves at the thought of an early election
Like all populist startups, Reform’s having growing pains. Its candidate selection in Makerfield was woeful but more importantly the by-election which delivered Burnham to Parliament showed anti-Reform voters are increasingly willing to vote tactically to keep them out.
Badenoch has consistently ruled out a political coalition with Reform, but that doesn’t mean her social circle doesn’t overlap. At Tory donor Michael Ashcroft’s 80th lavish birthday party in March, Badenoch shared a table with Farage. When Nicole Scherzinger from The Pussycat Dolls entertained guests with Don’t Cha, a self-confident Badenoch danced along. Farage did not dance.
“Nigel isn’t a clown,” a senior Reform source said. “Kemi has to dance to distract from the fact she’s six to seven percent down in the polling averages from when she took over. For two years straight she’s been smashed in Tory heartlands of Kent, Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk, and I could go on.”
Back in Westminster, some Tories are nervous that Burnham will see a poll bounce and go for a general election in the autumn or spring. Others think he will bottle it at the risk of squandering Starmer’s majority. Either way, no Tory thinks their party is in any way ready for the judgment of voters.
But that isn’t stopping Tories feeling chipper. It isn’t just the sunshine. They hope they have found a winner in Badenoch.
“Politics is all about momentum, and pretty much since Boris [Johnson] started to fall apart, we’ve been losing momentum,” a Tory MP said. “Even though we’re at a shockingly low point, we have some momentum about us.”
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