Poland has reportedly been warned that Russia is planning an armed “provocation” on its soil to test Nato’s resolve. This could include missile or drone attacks on Polish critical infrastructure, or a limited invasion by Russian soldiers, according to a report in The Telegraph.
The UK military has not changed its plans based on this and there are no crisis meetings happening in the Ministry of Defence, The i Paper understands. Intelligence firm Janes also told The i Paper that there are no current indications in open source data of a looming incursion, such as troop movements.
But one defence analyst, who worked as part of Nato’s response to Russia’s 2014 takeover of Crimea, said it was a “likely play”.
Ed Arnold, a senior security analyst at defence think tank Rusi, said Putin could seek to legitimise aggression by presenting it as protection of residents of the Russian exclave Kaliningrad that borders Poland, and calibrating an attack to avoid US involvement and split Nato.
Under the terms of the Nato military alliance – which has 32 members including the UK and Poland – an attack on one country is seen as an attack on all. But any UK response would depend on the nature and severity of the operation.
Key steps would have to be taken first.
Intelligence gathering
The first to discover any incursion into Nato would be the UK’s military intelligence experts, who work 24/7 to monitor threats to the UK and its allies at the forces spy centre in Cambridgeshire.
Their analysts would kick into action, gathering and processing information on the incursion to compile a report, which would be rushed up the food chain to inform top decision-makers.
Working in a secretive, windowless room draped with UK and military flags, they would draw on everything from satellite imagery, information from allies, human intelligence, social media and the news channels which play on screens above their desks at all hours of the day.
Emergency meetings
As news of any incursion broke, a COBRA meeting would likely be called. This is a high-level co-ordination and decision-making meeting called in the event of an emergency, including natural disasters and terrorist attacks.
The attendees depend on the nature of the event, but the prime minister, defence secretary and military chiefs would be expected to be in attendance if Russia launched an incursion. They would discuss the possible options for the UK to respond.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer gives a statement following a COBRA meeting after two people were stabbed in Golders Green, north-west London, on 29 April 2026 (Photo: Stefan Rousseau / WPA Pool/Getty Images)The UK may also participate in a meeting with its Nato allies, likely represented by the British ambassador to the alliance, Angus Lapsley.
Under Nato’s Article 4, any member country can call an emergency meeting when its territorial integrity, political independence or security is threatened, and Poland may choose to bring its allies together to collectively decide on a response in this scenario.
Decision turns to action
Once a course of action had been chosen, the operation would be handed to the Chief Joint Operations, at the military’s Permanent Joint Headquarters in Northwood.
This centre brings together all branches of the forces – because any response would include different strands of the military – and maintains top secret plans for a range of possible scenarios.
The job of the chief, currently Lieutenant General Charlie Stickland, would be to turn the agreed-upon response into a deliverable military plan.
Army deployment
The UK already has a permanent presence of around 800 to 900 soldiers in Estonia and a few hundreds troops in Poland under Operation Cabrit, which was set up in 2016 to defend Nato’s eastern flank.
In the case of an attack on Poland, insiders suggested that the UK would probably look to reinforce its existing presence in Estonia, rather than immediately deploy troops to Poland. Poland is already supported by a large number of other Nato allies, with 10,000 American troops stationed there, and it is operationally simpler for the UK to increase an existing presence than launch an entirely new one.
It is also possible that a Russian incursion could be a decoy or distraction for another attack, and the UK would want to ensure Estonia was not vulnerable while attention was focused elsewhere.
However, any decisions on deployment would be made in partnership with Nato, which makes the final decision on which troops, from which countries, should be moved where.
Captain Hamish Mackellar scoops for enemy troops on the Tapa range in Estonia where British soldiers took part in Exercise Winter Camp (Photo: Ben Birchall/PA Wire)The UK keeps a number of personnel on high readiness at all times to deploy overseas in an emergency. The British Army’s 4th Brigade is paired with the Estonian teams to provide back up in case of emergency, offering specialist light forces who are capable of fighting in complex, varied environments, with one official suggesting this was the most likely unit to deploy.
A deployment could be also undertaken by 16 Air Assault Brigade, the Army’s Global Response Force. This team is able to deploy around the world at a moment’s notice, and participated in the evacuation of Kabul, Afghanistan, in August 2022, and the evacuation of Sudan in April 2023. However, it is generally focused on crises outside of Europe, though it includes elite parachute units who could, if needed, drop into any conflict zone from the sky.
Air response
The UK already carries out air policing missions to protect the airspace over eastern Europe from Russia. The Royal Air Force is currently deployed on Op BILOXI in Romania for Air Policing, where it works with the Romanian air force to maintain a 24-hour Quick Reaction Alert. If needed, it could increase its contribution to this, including by sending more jets or support equipment.
It also takes part in Eastern Sentry, a Nato mission to enhance protection of allied airspace, which was set up in 2025 after multiple incursions by Russian drones. Nato could decide to launch a new mission, or ask allies to step up their contributions to existing defensive operations.
Soldiers from 16 Air Assault Brigade set up and fly their military drones after jumping from an RAF A400M transport aircraft onto Salisbury Plain at Copehill Down training facility in March (Photo: Finnbarr Webster/Getty Images)However, increasing the number of Typhoon jets sent to eastern Europe could mean cutting back on missions elsewhere.
The UK requires Typhoons at home to defend British airspace, and has jets deployed in the Middle East in light of the war between the US, Israel and Iran, so this would require tough choices about the reallocation of air power.
The UK also takes part in Baltic Sentry, a Nato plan focused on intelligence and surveillance of the Baltic area, using P8 maritime patrol and reconnaissance aircraft and Rivet Joint signals, intelligence and electronic warfare jets. This mission mostly monitors Russian ships and submarines.
The UK could increase the number of sorties it flies, but only if this was appropriate for the type of incursion or threat, insiders said.
Command deployment
In a more extreme scenario requiring a larger Nato response, the UK could deploy the Allied Rapid Reaction Corps, a high readiness headquarters which can be deployed around the world as a command post for Nato operations.
Should the incursion expand into a full-scale conflict, the UK could escalate to match the threat, by calling up its reserve forces, deploying further troops or even considering nuclear responses.
Soldiers from 16 Air Assault Brigade set up a heavy machine gun position after parachuting near Warminster, England (Photo: Finnbarr Webster/Getty Images)How likely is a Russian attack on Poland?
A Russian incursion into Poland would bring “significant” nuclear risks, Arnold said, because although Poland is not a nuclear power, they are defended by British, French and American nuclear arsenals under Nato agreements.
“However, the Ukrainians have battered Moscow, Petersburg, oil refineries, and it hasn’t led to nuclear escalation,” he added
Arnold said that for Russia to be successful, it would have to stage an incident below the threshold of drawing a large-scale American respond.
“In doing so, you split the alliance, because then it pushes a lot of pressure on the Europeans to act as one, and when you don’t have the US as the binding decision maker, Europeans tend to struggle,” he said.
Soldiers from the 2nd Battalion The Royal Anglian Regiment (The Poachers) around their Jackal vehicles on the Tapa range in Estonia where British soldiers were taking part in Exercise Winter Camp, which is part of Operation Cabrit, in February. (Photo: Ben Birchall/PA Wire)Even without Nato’s support, Poland would be able to respond “very strongly,” Arnold said.
Poland has Nato’s third largest army and spends just under 5 per cent of its GDP on defence, compared with 2.6 per cent for the UK. But if other allies don’t come to Poland’s aid, it would prove the Nato alliance does not work.
“The best option for Putin is: he does this, there’s a limited engagement with the Poles, no one helps the Poles, the US don’t come in, and then effectively Nato’s dead,” Arnold said.
However, others believe that a Russian incursion is not imminent – and the reports could be politically motivated.
John Foreman, a British former Nato official and defence attache in Moscow and Kyiv, said that a Russian attack on a European Nato member was not likely as it would not serve Moscow’s interests.
Instead, he suggested Polish sources cited in the report could have an agenda to shore up the US military presence in the country ahead of the Nato summit in Ankara next week.
A Battlefield Ambulance during Op CABRIT at Exercise WINTER CAMP in Tapa, Estonia. (Photo: Beth Prodger/ UK MOD Crown copyright)A planned deployment of 4,000 troops to Poland was cancelled in May and the White House has mooted wider withdrawals from Europe.
Foreman said the leaks were “pre-Ankara spin to stop the Americans doing anything rash” and Warsaw wanting “to get more Nato in Poland”.
Intelligence analysts at Janes said even without an incursion into Poland, Russia already engages in hybrid actions against Nato states and this is very likely to continue. “Actions include sabotage of critical national infrastructure and UAV incursions into Nato airspace,” they told The i Paper.
“These actions are undertaken at a low level that are hard to see in advance and allow for plausible deniability by Moscow. This complicates any Nato response and can increase political tension within the alliance, which Moscow sees as a centre of gravity that it can exploit.”
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