Several rounds of storms are expected along a “ring of fire” across the Midwest through the Fourth of July holiday weekend. However there are still a lot of questions on the timing of each round.
This setup in the atmosphere is extremely common in summer around Chicago.
Hot and humid air has been in place all week because of a “ridge” in the jet stream, which is a river of fast-moving air more than 20,000 feet above ground. So far, that ridge has been keeping storms away from Illinois by steering them across Iowa and into Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Once the ridge in the jet stream begins to break down, the winds that steer the storms takes aim at northern Illinois. This means as several complexes of thunderstorms develop across the Plains, they’ll move in Illinois’ direction.
The forecasting concern is each round of storms has a profound impact on when and where the next round of storms develops and tracks. Every forecast model may change until the storm is just a few hours away.
Here’s what we know:
Thunderstorms are likely overnight Thursday into early Friday morning. Some of those storms could have hail and damaging wind gusts, along with heavy rain.
Severe storms are possible Friday afternoon and evening. Damaging winds, hail, and flooding are again the primary threats. These storms are likely to fire along a frontal boundary leftover over by the morning storms; which makes it difficult to pinpoint until we know what happens in the morning.
Storms are more likely before 8 p.m. Friday, but we can’t yet say with confidence that there won’t be storms around for holiday fireworks that evening.
Saturday becomes even more challenging, but more rounds of storms are possible both early and late in the day.
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