The Opta supercomputer has simulated the remainder of the 2026 World Cup 25,000 times to produce its knockout-stage predictions, revealing each team’s chances of reaching the final and lifting the trophy.
And then there were 32.
After 72 group-stage matches at the 2026 World Cup, the knockout stage is set. Sixteen teams have been eliminated and 32 remain in the hunt for football’s biggest prize.
With the World Cup knockout stage starting today, the latest Opta supercomputer predictions reveal how the rest of the tournament is expected to unfold. From the round of 32 through to the final, the model has simulated the competition 25,000 times to generate full World Cup 2026 predictions, including each team’s probability of progressing at every stage and lifting the trophy.
The expanded format, which allowed the eight-best third-placed teams to qualify, reduced the jeopardy of the group stage somewhat, with Uruguay the only real high-profile casualty.
The vast majority of the pre-tournament big-hitters have progressed, although the knockout bracket has shaped up very differently depending on which part of the draw teams find themselves in.
Now that the round of 32 is confirmed, we can turn to the Opta supercomputer’s knockout predictions, which highlight which teams are favourites to lift the trophy on 19 July.
France began the tournament as second favourites in the Opta supercomputer’s pre-tournament World Cup predictions, with a 13.0% chance of winning the trophy. After an exceptional group stage, they have now moved into top spot at 18.7%.
Les Bleus have been the standout side in the tournament so far and are one of only three teams, alongside Argentina and Mexico, to win all three group-stage matches. It’s the first time France have won every group game at a major tournament since the 1998 World Cup, when they went on to lift the trophy on home soil.
According to the latest knockout-stage predictions, France are well placed to continue their run. They’re expected to beat Sweden in the round of 32, before a likely quarter-final against Germany. Beyond that, their path opens up, until a potential semi-final meeting against Spain.
Argentina are the biggest beneficiaries of the draw, with Lionel Scaloni’s side now second favourites at 16.3%.
Cape Verde’s fairytale run has been one of the best stories of the tournament, but from Argentina’s perspective, it’s a very kind round-of-32 draw. If they progress, they would face either Australia or Egypt in the last 16, followed by a potential quarter-final against one of Switzerland, Algeria, Colombia or Ghana.
It probably won’t be until the semi-finals that Argentina face a genuine heavyweight, with Brazil or England likely opponents at that stage.
Spain entered the tournament as the pre-tournament favourites in the World Cup 2026 predictions, and although they have slipped to third place at 13.5%, they remain firmly among the leading contenders.
A potential last-16 clash with Portugal looks like a bruising encounter arriving a round earlier than it feels like it should, but Spain would still be favourites for that. If they progress, they’ll then face one of the United States, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Belgium or Senegal in the quarter-finals.
England sit on a 9.7% chance of winning the tournament in the latest Opta supercomputer World Cup predictions. They are are strong favourites to beat DR Congo in the round of 32.
However, their route quickly becomes far more demanding. A potential last-16 meeting with Mexico at the Azteca looms, followed by a possible quarter-final against Brazil.
England are unbeaten in 11 competitive matches under Thomas Tuchel (W10 D1), but they will need to improve on a stop-start group-stage performance.
Brazil’s position in eyes of the supercomputer hasn’t changed. They began the tournament with a 6.6% chance of winning the title and now sit at 6.5%.
Netherlands, however, have improved their standing with the Opta supercomputer, rising from 3.6% pre-tournament to 5.1% after an impressive group stage.
They scored 10 goals in the group phase, equalling their highest-ever tally at that stage of a World Cup (also 2014), showcasing some of the most fluent attacking football in the competition so far.
All three co-hosts remain in the competition and are expected to progress from the round of 32 according to the supercomputer’s knockout predictions, but their runs may not last much longer.
The United States are given a 42.5% chance of reaching the quarter-finals, the strongest projection of the three hosts. Mexico sit at 28.3%, while Canada are rated at 25.2% to reach the last eight.
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World Cup 2026 Knockout Stage Predictions: The Opta Supercomputer Forecasts Every Team’s Chances Opta Analyst.
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