Vladimir Putin is facing growing calls from hardliners to deploy nuclear weapons as Russia faces increasing devastation from mass Ukrainian attacks deep in the heart of the country and Crimea.
Independent Russian news outlet The Bell reported this week that a tactical nuclear strike against Ukraine – referring to weapons designed for the battlefield that carry smaller warheads – has growing support within the Kremlin. One regime insider said “the prospect of using tactical nuclear weapons is approaching”.
This month, Kremlin-run newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta published an article by the prominent military expert Yuri Knutov calling for the deployment of “low-yield” nuclear weapons against Ukrainian frontline positions.
Sergey Karaganov, a former adviser to Putin and head of the Council for Foreign and Defence Policy think-tank in Moscow, has gone further, calling for “limited” nuclear attacks on European countries that support Ukraine.
Ukraine’s long-range drone strikes are a growing problem for the Kremlin, which has struggled to counter them. Moscow has come under sustained fire for the first time during the war. Attacks on fuel plants have hit production and caused widespread gas shortages.
‘Cherished’ Crimea may be Putin’s red line
The most acute concern may be over Crimea. Ukrainian attacks are severing supply lines and taking out military and energy infrastructure on the occupied peninsula, leaving Russian holidaymakers in a warzone. On Friday the region’s governor announced a state of emergency due to the deteriorating situation.
Crimea is a cherished possession for Putin, who captured the territory in an earlier invasion of Ukraine in 2014.
While the Kremlin has repeatedly announced “red line” threats to Ukraine and its allies and then failed to back them up, the US has for years been wary of the potential for escalation if Putin were at risk of losing Crimea.
A 2022 US intelligence assessment put the chances of a Russian nuclear strike at 50 per cent if defensive lines protecting Crimea fell, The New York Times reported. Ex-US defence secretary Robert Gates said the peninsula was a “real red line”.
Moscow’s nuclear doctrine ambiguously states that atomic bombs can be used in case of an “existential threat” to the nation.
Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Rybakov, said this month this meant “encroachments on Russia or its territorial integrity by aggressors, including those who may possess such weapons, could prompt us to use these weapons in the worst-case scenario”.
The aftermath of a Ukrainian strike on the Kerch Bridge in Russian-occupied Crimea this week. Some experts say Moscow could go for the nuclear option if cannot protect the peninsula (Photo: Vantor/Reuters)The loss of Crimea, which Putin calls an “inseparable” part of Russia, could “technically” reach that threshold, said Dr Pavel Podvig, a senior researcher and specialist on Russia’s nuclear forces at the UN Institute for Disarmament Research.
‘We should take obsessive Putin seriously’
But the threat to Crimea is not yet critical enough for Russia to raise concerns about nuclear escalation, according to James Nixey, former head of the Russia and Eurasia programme at Chatham House.
“The Ukrainians aren’t about to retake it. They can cause problems and cut it off even, but not get it back any time soon,” he said.
Russia would have to reveal its intentions through preparations to launch a nuclear weapon that would be detected in advance, Nixey said further.
Putin also has a powerful disincentive against a nuclear strike as it could lose him allies, including China, he added.
But Nixey believes the prospect should not be ruled out due to Putin’s power and extreme ideology. “I don’t think there’s a 0 per cent chance. Putin is an ageing, obsessive ultra-nationalist in full command. So we should take it seriously and monitor carefully,” he said.
The aftermath of a Ukrainian drone strike on a Moscow oil refinery this month. Kyiv has been hitting Russian energy targets of late to relieve pressure off the front line which remains stagnant (Photo: Getty)The risk of an unforeseen escalation spiral
Anatol Lieven, head of the Eurasia programme at the US-based Quincy Institute, said potential flashpoints that carried escalation risks went beyond Crimea.
“I don’t think that Russia will simply escalate towards nuclear use,” he said. “But given the increasing damage from Ukrainian attacks, the universal Russian belief that these are being aided by Nato, and the mood of frustration in the Russian establishment, the risk is of an unplanned event that is exploited by Russian hardliners to launch a spiral of escalation.
Potential high-risk events could include “a Ukrainian strike that goes astray and causes heavy Russian civilian casualties…or some particular action by a Western country, like a clash at sea over the seizure of a Russian merchant ship”, he said.
UK forces seized a Russian ship sailing under a false Cameroonian flag earlier this month. A similar incident has the potential to spiral out of control, experts fear (Photo: UK MOD/SWNS)The German Council on Foreign Relations think-tank has noted an uptick in Russian nuclear activity and threats – including the sudden announcement of large-scale nuclear exercises and intercontinental ballistic missile tests. In a paper, it suggested this was “strongly correlated with negative developments for Russia in its war against Ukraine”.
The West should respond by remaining steadfast in its support for Ukraine, the paper advised, as well as taking additional measures such as “heavy investment in deep-precision-strike capabilities that strengthen deterrence by credibly threatening high-value military targets” in Russia, and developing Europe’s nuclear umbrella.
Anton Barbashin, editorial director of UK-based Russian news outlet Ridl, suggests Putin is likely to adopt other forms of escalation than a nuclear strike to try to reverse Russia’s fortunes on the battlefield, which could still have devastating effects.
“There are many other steps he could take,” he said. “A more simple solution would be the destruction of a nuclear power plant, or some sort of catastrophe that would send a signal that Russia is getting serious.”
“A more likely scenario is another round of mobilisation in Russia after the September [parliament] elections, to get more men on the front line.”
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