Extreme weather warnings, wildfires and drought are starting to deter holidaymakers from peak-season travel to the continent’s tourist hotspots. With temperatures exceeding 40°C in places such as Spain’s Basque Country and Bordeaux in France this week, the goldilocks window – when the weather is warm, but not too hot – may be shifting.
Research from the European Travel Commission (ETC), a non-profit representing Europe’s national tourism organisations, has found that 75–80 per cent of respondents say climate change affects their travel behaviour.
Many of those travellers are “actively seeking milder climates, monitoring weather conditions more closely, or avoiding destinations prone to extreme heat,” according to Teodora Marinska, from the ETC.
Meanwhile, a “super” El Niño, which encourages extreme weather, is expected over the summer.
The city of Bordeaux in southwestern France has recorded temperatures over 40°C this week (Photo: Jean-Luc Ichard/Getty)The new summer
What is known as shoulder season – between the crowded peak season and the low season when temperatures drop and tourist-focused businesses close – could become the new summer, as travellers avoid extreme heat.
Professor Liz Bentley, chief executive of the Royal Meteorological Society, says: “Europe is the fastest-warming continent, warming roughly twice as fast as the global average.
“Destinations such as Mallorca, Málaga and the Algarve are seeing more days above 30°C between June and September, with temperatures reaching dangerous levels above 40°C more frequently, too.”
Indeed, data from Copernicus, the European Commission’s flagship Earth observation programme, shows that almost 95 per cent of Europe saw above-average annual temperatures in 2025.
Temperatures across the continent also show long-term warming trends. Average temperatures in Europe in the past five years were around 2.4°C higher than pre-industrial (1850–1900) temperatures.
Half-term holidays in demand
Families with school-age children may be tied to travelling outside of term time, but, thankfully, the May and October half terms can offer appealing weather.
Research last month from the Advantage Travel Partnership, the UK’s largest network of independent travel agents, found that May holidays accounted for 22 per cent of all bookings. Spain and the Canary Islands were among the most popular destinations for the May half-term.
Ben Lynam from Travel Forward, an independent non-profit that works with the tourism sector, says: “Climate change is not making the Mediterranean summer holiday disappear, but it is changing the conditions people can expect. July and August will bring periods of extreme heat, warm nights, wildfire smoke, water restrictions and disruption to outdoor activities.
“We are starting to see some travellers […] booking late-spring and early-autumn breaks, and the evidence suggests this trend will grow as heat extremes become more frequent.”
Record temperatures in Spain
Spain is the most-visited country among British tourists, with around 17.7 million visits made from the UK to Spain in 2024, according to the latest ONS data. Some Spanish holiday hotspots are overwhelmed by crowds in peak months, making the country ripe for shoulder-season trips.
The Spanish tourist office has seen growth in demand for travel outside of peak season. British tourist arrivals between January and May last year were up 9.1 per cent compared to 2019 and by 6.9 per cent compared to the same period in 2019. Spain’s tourist office and regional governments are also working with hoteliers, restaurants and attractions to extend opening hours in the quieter months.
Spain registered its hottest summer on record and its third-hottest year on record in 2025, which may be helping to nudge people to visit in cooler months.
Mallorca, one of Britons’ favourite destinations, has high temperatures of up to 35°C this week and has faced three wildfires in 24 hours. Indeed, Spain accounted for half of the emissions from wildfires in Europe in 2025.
For those concerned about the impact of high temperatures, the largest Balearic island remains warm during the months around summer. There were highs of 36°C last August, for example, but a more pleasant peak of 28°C in May and October, according to data from AccuWeather, a weather forecasting service.
Tui has a stay at the three-star Hotel Son Baulo in Ca’n Picafort for seven nights half-board (with return flights from the UK) for around £700pp in October half term, the same price as a week’s stay in the first week of August. For those travelling independently, flight prices are currently starting at around £40 return in both August and October.
Another, typically milder, Spanish region is facing extreme heat this week. The Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET) has issued a red alert for areas of the Basque Country (as well as Andalucia and Cantabria).
La Concha beach in San Sebastian, Spain, is almost a mile long (Photo: Westend61/Getty)The coastal city of San Sebastian, with sandy beaches such as the almost mile-long La Concha, an old quarter filled with pintxos bars and a scenic funicular, is experiencing high temperatures of up to 38°C this week. For families who would prefer a milder half-term trip, San Sebastian enjoyed highs of around 21–27°C in the final week of October last year.
Quiet Spain
Manuel Butler, director of the Spanish Tourist Office (UK), says: “Encouraging visitors to travel outside the peak summer season is a key part of Spain’s 2030 Tourism Strategy. As we experience extreme temperatures during London Climate Action Week, the benefits of visiting Spain in the milder spring and autumn months are clearer than ever.
“Beyond enjoying more comfortable conditions, travelling in the shoulder season helps reduce pressure on our busiest destinations and supports local businesses in sustaining year-round employment. Increased demand from UK tour operators will also help destinations maintain tourism services beyond the traditional summer season.”
Widespread weather alerts
France is Britons’ favourite travel destination after Spain, with more than 9.3 million visits in 2024, according to the ONS.
But summer trips to Britain’s closest neighbour may seem less appealing after this week’s temperatures. More than half of France is under the most severe red weather alert. The country’s national rail operator, SNCF, has advised passengers who are “vulnerable” to avoid or delay train travel. Due to a mix of extreme heat and low humidity, Météo-France, the national meteorological and climatological service, has said 35 of the country’s departments are at high risk of forest fires.
Bordeaux and the surrounding area in the Gironde department of southwestern France are experiencing some of the highest temperatures, with the city reaching 42°C on Wednesday.
Similar weather was seen last August when Bordeaux recorded highs of 41°C. May and October were milder last year, with highs of 28°C and 26°C, respectively.
UK Foreign Office warnings
The UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) issued an update to its advice for France on Tuesday, warning of higher-than-normal temperatures in the summer months and advising travellers to check local temperatures and guidance. Similar warnings were added to the FCDO pages for Spain and Portugal.
During last month’s heatwave, Portugal reached a record temperature for May of 40.3 °C in Mora, a town in the country’s Évora District in the Alentejo region. The region is set for highs of 42°C in the next week, while the country’s capital, Lisbon, is expected to reach up to 36°C next Wednesday.
Comporta in Portugal is a low-key resort that’s popular with surfers (Photo: imageBROKER RF/Getty)Alongside the Algarve, Alentejo has become a go-to summer holiday destination for Britons. Comporta, a beach resort around 90 minutes’ drive south of Lisbon, saw highs of 39°C last August, however, compared to 29°C in October.
Similarly, Faro in the Algarve reached 37°C last August but peaked at a more comfortable 27°C in October.
Those tempted to remain in the UK over summer could plan an autumn trip to the Algarve – and save a few hundred pounds per person on their holiday. For example, Thomas Cook has a seven-night all-inclusive stay at the well-rated Patio Suite Hotel in Albufeira, with return flights from Stansted, for £830pp in the last week of October compared to £1,469pp in the second week of August.
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