A raft of klieg-light Senate candidates are driving coverage of Democrats looking to retake the majority in this fall’s elections. Maine, Texas, Iowa, and Alaska all have high-wattage, younger nominees who are raising hopes among party insiders that John Thune won’t be the Senate’s Majority Leader much longer.
Both races are worth attention, but I’m going to focus here on Brown, who is leading in polls in Ohio, which was not too long ago dismissed by Democrats as a lost cause. Now, it may be the lynchpin to Democrats winning the Senate.
Making all the difference here is that, unlike Graham Platner in Maine or James Talarico in Texas, the 73-year-old Brown doesn’t have to spend a lot of time introducing himself to the state’s voters. Brown already represented Ohio for almost two decades in the U.S. Senate, and notched more than 30 years in Ohio politics before that. Brown, who remains the most powerful endorsement available in Ohio, is a progressive voice who knows how to balance being a loyal Democratic elder statesman while also landing blows against Clinton-era free-trade policies.
“Yes, he’s an old white dude in a Red State. But he knows who he is. So do voters.”
It’s hard not to view those numbers as largely a proxy on Trump. In that same poll, a remarkable 57% of Ohioans carry an unfavorable view of the President. To put that in context, Trump had a 52-46% positive rating in 2024, when he won the White House. It’s a massive shift that is leaving Republicans in Washington
By casting Brown as a vote for Schumer in charge, Republicans hope to galvanize Republicans and dampen Democratic enthusiasm. It’s not far off from the plan to nationalize the 2010 House races as a referendum on then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Ohio is a weird place politically. In 2004, we all looked at Ohio at the barometer of the national mood. Heck, there was even a documentary about its abilities to predict the national mood, … So Goes the Nation. Ohio also happens to be my home turf—I grew up there, went to undergrad there, got my first newspaper job there, worked in The Associated Press bureau in Columbus, took my Youngstown-based family to the Nats game last night.
Down-ballot, the results were dramatic. Republicans over the last 20 years—with the help of demographics and redistricting commissions—moved the state from a 10-8 Democratic split in 2009 when Obama moved into the White House to the current 10-5 GOP advantage. (Population loss in Ohio and growth in other states accounts for the loss of three House districts.)
That means Ohio (and North Carolina) may be where the fight for Senate control is actually decided.
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