Was the war worth the cost? Thirteen American soldiers lost their lives; 3,375 Iranians were killed, including 175 people, mostly children, who died in a US Tomahawk missile strike on a girls’ school. And it cost the American taxpayers $132 billion—twice the cost of all of Obamacare! Trump has little to show for it. The initial agreement between the United States and Iran, mediated primarily by Pakistan, offers Iran sanctions relief, a promise of reconstruction funds, and the potential to collect tolls on the Strait of Hormuz.
The agreement did nothing to stop Iran from continuing funding its proxy terrorists—Hamas, the Houthis and Hezbollah—while promising to work with regional partners to raise reconstruction funds of $300 billion for Iran. And Trump left the repressive, militarist theocratic Iranian regime intact, a combination widely seen as a stunning American capitulation. However, Trump invariably denies all setbacks from bankruptcies and election losses to failures in courtrooms and on battlefields.
This bipartisan American condemnation mirrored a rare consensus across Israel’s political spectrum. From the far-right flanks of Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition to the leadership of the center-left opposition, Israeli political leaders are fiercely condemning the 14-point deal as a catastrophic capitulation that compromises the nation’s security, leaving Iran emboldened and taking the restraints off its regional terrorist proxies.
Roy Cohn, the legendary fixer for Fred Trump, the president’s father, advised: “No matter what happens, you claim victory and never admit defeat.” As we have written previously, nobody should be surprised by Trump’s flip-flopping. In our book, Trump’s Ten Commandments, we predicted exactly this outcome, because it fits perfectly with Trump’s long-established patterns of behaviour. And here is how.
The flips can be vertiginous to behold. Trump went from denouncing Mojtaba Khamenei, the new Supreme Leader of Iran, as “unacceptable” and a “lightweight” to heaping him with praise, calling him "professional" and a man of "very good reputation," insisting “there’s a bravery there,” describing him as “more rational,” and declaring that he would be “honored” to speak with him.
No bull market, no bear market but a Trump market
Instead of securing freedom for Iran’s oppressed population, seizing its enriched uranium, or the dismantling Iranian missile capabilities and its proxy terrorist groups, Trump shifted the goalposts.
As we argued earlier, we are not living in a bull market or a bear market but a Trump market. With oil prices hovering near $100 a barrel and strategic reserves dwindling, Trump was feeling the financial pressure to make a deal, a pressure he himself acknowledged, one that outweighed all other considerations. Indeed, the very first words that Trump uttered upon signing the initial agreement at the Palace of Versailles were telling: “Oil down, Stocks up.”
In the case of Iran, Trump declared victory even though virtually every expert agrees that nearly of all his stated objectives, as he himself laid out at the beginning of the conflict, were unmet, even as he claims to have accomplished each and every goal.
None of that has come to pass. Nevertheless, Trump will continue declaring himself the winner, repeating the message relentlessly, as he always does.
The tribal chieftain of American power
Trump has conspicuously made Vice President JD Vance the public face of the new Iran deal, even declaring that “if it doesn’t work out, I’m blaming JD.” It is a characteristically Trumpian move, given that Vance has long led the faction most inclined to pursue a negotiated settlement with Iran.
The wall of sound: Trump’s perpetual distraction machine
Trump’s perpetual noise machine is an ever-spinning engine of new headlines, intentionally outrageous statements, and sudden moves designed to overwhelm, scatter, and redirect public attention—especially when he is intent on burying bad news.
Trump is already trying to pivot public attention toward other issues, with Truth Social posts on everything from algae in the Reflecting Pool to GOP primary endorsements, potential denuclearization talks with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, the Save America Act, and Cuba—all in the 48 hours since the initial agreement with Iran was signed. He will almost assuredly continue to manufacture fresh controversies to divert attention from the deal’s shortcomings.
Trump’s tools are the narratives he constructs as he reinvents the facts and defies the empirical evidence plainly before the eyes of the public. In the 1933 classic Marx Brothers comedy Duck Soup, Chico Marx is a spy caught in a failed disguise to resemble a rival leader. Chico defiantly counters a skeptic’s challenge of his failed impersonation arguing, “Who are you going to believe? Me, or your own eyes?”
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