It’s not the kind of regular feature you WANT to deploy over the course of a season, but that’s just the nature of this Cubs season. Pitcher injury updates at the 11s, so to speak …
If you missed the diagnosis on Daniel Palencia (who ultimately DID get imaging done, which, duh; I still have no idea what that whole thing was about), it’s a mild flexor strain. On the one hand, any kind of real injury in the elbow is bad news, but, on the other hand, this is the kind of thing you hope for if it’s going to be a real, structural injury. Palencia, who has been out since last week (after being permitted to pitch through discomfort; again, no idea what that was about), will be shut down from throwing through about the end of the month. From there he can start to ramp back up, and, although no timeline has been laid out explicitly, my guess is that the Cubs will be targeting a post-All-Star-break return. That’ll be about four or five weeks, which is very roughly what you hope for with a mild flexor strain.
For the second time in as many weeks, Matthew Boyd has had a successful rehab outing, and looks poised to return to the big league Cubs the next time through. From Cubs.com:
“Both Cubs pitching coach Tommy Hottovy and Boyd indicated on Sunday that the pitcher had recovered well a day after that appearance for South Bend. The lefty is scheduled to throw a bullpen session in New York on Monday and the Cubs will determine his next step from there. It is possible Boyd could be activated as early as Thursday.”
He was up to 59 pitches this weekend in his rehab start at South Bend, which came after some shoulder soreness, which came after a rehab start at Iowa, which came after knee surgery, which came after his kids tried to take him out. At that level, you could tentatively expect Boyd to be available for up to 75-ish pitches in his first start back. A healthy Boyd would be a huge boost to the pitching staff, which could then move one of Colin Rea or Javier Assad into the beleaguered bullpen.
Today is a very big day for Justin Steele, who is expected to start throwing baseballs today after finishing his pre-throwing strength and plyo work. He is traveling with the team on their road trip, and obviously the dream scenario is he graduates to mound work and bullpens relatively quickly (but safely). A rehab stint coming in three or four weeks would not be out of the question if the progression goes smoothly.
Jesse Rogers has indicated that Steele coming back by August would be a huge win, so we do have to keep our expectations calibrated accordingly. That’s especially true when we consider that the current rehab, from a flexor strain, happened only after Steele was close to pitching competitively at the tail end of his rehab from last year’s surgery. Another setback like that, and Steele’s season could be over.
Lastly for today, the rehab process for top pitching prospect Jaxon Wiggins took another step forward yesterday, with the big righty moving from the ACL up to High-A South Bend. We’ll want to know that he recovers well, but it does sound like the appearance was a success:
Jaxon Wiggins made his #SBCubs return this afternoon in Fort Wayne on rehab, striking out 3️⃣ batters in 2.2 innings ?RECAP ⬇️ t.co/hMjYPemw73
— South Bend Cubs (@SBCubs) June 21, 2026That’s it for Jaxon Wiggins in his first rehab start in South Bend.2.2 IP, 1 H, 1 ER (HR), 2 BB, 3 K49 pitches, 27 strikesControl was shaky in this one but he was throwing all 4 of his pitches and broke off a couple good sliders. Touched 97 in his last inning of work.
— Greg Huss (@OutOfTheVines) June 21, 2026It’s possible Wiggins makes another start at South Bend, or one at Knoxville, before returning to the Iowa Cubs. Either way, it’s important to remember that he’s not rehabbing for a return to the big leagues, so the trajectory/timeline is not the same as with the other guys. There is still substantial development work ongoing, and the thinking is AT LEAST as much about 2027 for Wiggins as it is about 2026. Of course the Cubs would love for him to break out post-elbow-inflammation and contribute this year, but I tend to think the bigger focus has to be getting him in a position to be a serious contender for a big league roster spot come the spring. So if that means this process is extra conservative, and the chances he could come up this year go down, even if he’s healthy? So be it.
If he does recover well from the next rehab start or two, I’d be looking for Wiggins to be back at Iowa for a good five+ starts (of maybe 4.0-ish innings apiece?) before there are even conversations about what a contribution to the big league team down the stretch (bullpen?) could plausibly look like.
In other words, right now, I’m still thinking of his story primarily as that of a prospect I want to see get back to developing for the future.
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