Britain could see 40°C summer days as early as this year, experts warn, as temperatures are set to soar this coming week.
Parts of England and Wales could see highs of 38°C on Wednesday and Thursday, when the peak of the heatwave is expected to take place the Met Office said. Amber extreme heat warnings have been put in place for the east and southeast of England, and parts of the southwest of England and Wales.
2026 has already been a milestone-setting year for the UK, boasting the hottest May on record at a sweltering 35.1°C at its peak.
45°C ‘possible in future extreme heatwaves’
“It is perfectly possible that UK temperatures will touch 40°C this year, and/or next,” said Bill McGuire, professor emeritus of geophysical and climate hazards at UCL and author of The Fate of the World: A History and Future of the Climate Crisis.
Southern and southeast England have historically borne the brunt of heatwaves in the UK, though the country’s highest temperature ever was recorded in Coningsby, Lincolnshire, where the temperature hit 40.3°C on 19 July, 2022.
Emily Howard Boyd, chair of the National Heat Risk Commission, said this took place months after the Committee on Climate Change, the government’s independent climate change advisory group, “published an assessment where, based on Met Office data, they weren’t expecting the UK to experience 40°C heatwaves for approximately another decade”.
“The Committee on Climate Change now predicts there is a 50 per cent chance of another 40°C day occurring in the next four years. I think this shows the world is heating up faster than we expected.
“The report also notes that temperatures above 45°C are possible in future extreme heatwaves,” she added.
‘Super’ El Niño could further push up temperatures
The 40°C British summer is likely “especially with the strongest El Niño on record currently building in the Pacific,” McGuire said. “In fact, temperatures as high as 45°C are now possible under the current climate.”
El Niño is a natural Pacific weather pattern that pushes up global temperatures and fuels extreme temperatures – and is likely to emerge this summer.
Several forecasters say this El Niño could be one of the strongest ever recorded, leading some to call it a “super” or “Godzilla” El Niño.
The latest models by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show temperatures in the tropical Pacific potentially climbing more than 3°C above average by the end of the year.
El Niño’s impact on the UK is less clear due to its distance from the Pacific. “While there are sometimes links between El Niño events and European weather patterns, these are far from guaranteed,” the Met Office said in April.
Infrastructure not built for 40°C
Both McGuire and Boyd warned of the dangers of 40°C British summers, pointing to what happened in 2022.
During the 2022 heatwave, the UK saw wildfires break out, power outages and transport chaos. The UK Health Security Agency recorded 3,271 excess deaths in England during “heat-periods” that summer.
Boyd said: “[In London alone] we saw rail lines buckle, hospitals had to close down because the servers overheated. In Hammersmith and Fulham, 18 lifts in high-rise social housing failed, so you start seeing infrastructure that was not built to operate in 40°C heat become inoperable and unusable.
“People also use more water – water usage increased by 50 per cent in 2022. And the London Fire Brigade had its busiest day since the Second World War during that period.”
Regardless of the reading on the meter, Boyd said the UK desperately needs to start taking measures to adapt to the heat.
“We don’t need to wait for 40°C heat,” she said. “We need to take it seriously now, and every decision we’re making around building new homes, or schools, or hospitals, or when we’re retrofitting them, should be thinking very carefully about cooling options.”
The Climate Change Committee said last month the UK was “built for a climate that no longer exists” and that air conditioning will need to be fitted in homes and buildings for people to survive the years to come.
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