Anti-Reform UK tactical voting could stop Nigel Farage’s party from winning the next general election, The i Paper has been told.
The Makerfield by-election results – which saw Labour’s Andy Burnham beat Reform by over 9,000 votes – spells big trouble for Reform, say pollsters and political experts.
The Green Party and Liberal Democrat vote collapsed in the northwest seat, as left-leaning voters swung in behind Burnham to hold back Reform UK candidate Robert Kenyon.
While Burnham won a commanding 55 per cent share of the vote, the Green candidate took only 0.7 per cent (308 votes) and the Lib Dem only 0.4 per cent (163 votes).
Some MPs and campaigners believe that co-operation between the three, left-leaning “progressive” parties at the next election could thwart Farage’s dream of reaching No 10.
Reform election victory could be prevented
Activists pushing for a proportional representation (PR) voting system had backed Burnham because he supports electoral reform.
Leading Green figures had urged the party not to run a “full campaign” against Burnham, since he may change Labour policy on electoral reform if he ousts Sir Keir Starmer from No 10.
Green insiders privately conceded to The i Paper in May that they could not win the seat, and are understood not to have devoted much resources to the Makerfield contest.
Andy Burnham in Makerfield after his by-election win. The outgoing Manchester mayor won a commanding 55 per cent share of the vote (Photo: Ryan Jenkinson/Getty)Some left-wing campaigners are hoping that Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens can strike informal deals not to fight too hard in each other’s target seats at the general election.
Neal Lawson, executive director at Compass – which promotes co-operation between the three progressive parties – said there was room for the kind of collaboration that would encourage more tactical voting.
“The Greens aren’t in politics to play second fiddle and bend to Labour,” he said. “They will need a guarantee on proportional representational if we are to see more co-operation.”
“I think Lib Dems will be encouraged by his [Burnham’s] commitment to PR. It may be that informal deals can be done with Labour, Greens and Lib Dems so they don’t cancel each other out in some areas,” he added.
Tactical voting on the left may even prevent a Reform victory at the general election, said Lawson. “Whichever block, left or right, best utilises its vote will win the election.”
Right-wing voters too ‘ardent’ to vote tactically?
Recent YouGov polling found that left-wing voters are more likely than those on the right to engage in tactical voting.
Chris Hopkins, political research director of Savanta, said tactical voting had become more “prevalent” on the left because of years of anti-Tory campaigning when the Conservatives were in power.
Voters on the right are less keen to switch strategically. “In the run-up to the last general election, Savanta research showed Reform voters were the most ardent that they wouldn’t change their mind,” said Hopkins.
Voters backing Restore – Rupert Lowe’s insurgent party which has seized space on the right of Reform – are also unlikely to want to switch, added the pollster.
Restore came third in Makerfield, winning 6.8 per cent of the votes. The share may not be replicated across the country at a general election, but it is enough to worry Farage, said Hopkins.
Lowe’s party could make “enough of a dent in Reform’s vote share to impact the likelihood of a Reform majority in the future”.
Rise of Restore a ‘big problem’ for Reform
“Tactical voting is a big challenge for Reform,” polling expert and Conservative peer Lord Robert Hayward told The i Paper. “Restore in particular is big problem for Reform.”
It was “striking” that Farage appealed to Restore voters after the Makerfield result, said Lord Hayward. But he thinks the Reform leader may struggle to win them over or even get them to vote tactically against Labour.
“Anecdotally, it appears Restore voters don’t like Farage,” said the Tory peer. “Some of them have said that Farage is like all the other politicians. It’s clear the rift between the two parties is total.”
Restore leader Rupert Lowe at the Makerfield by-election count. The party came third (Photo: Jon Super/AP)Farage does have a history of working with other parties. Ahead of the 2019 general election, he decided that his Brexit Party would not stand in any of the 317 seats held by the Tories.
However, any informal co-operation between Reform and the Tories at the next election may be too “difficult”, said Lord Hayward.
“They are fighting elections against each other, so they have developed a dislike of each other. Kemi [Badenoch] is becoming more popular in her party, so there is a sense of unwillingness to co-operate, at least at the moment.”
Local ‘non-aggression’ deals at the next election?
The Labour, Liberal Dem and Green leadership have been reluctant to talk about any electoral agreements in recent years – keen to avoid accusations of a “stitch-up” by the Tories and Reform.
But some hope Burnham may bring about a subtle shift in election tactics – as well as Labour policy towards proportional representation – if he succeeds in replacing Starmer.
Labour MP Clive Lewis, a Burnham backer and a keen supporter of electoral reform, is keen to explore “co-operation” with other parties.
“The fact Andy Burnham wants PR tells you everything you need to know about his attitude to co-operation with other progressive parties,” he told The i Paper.
Jonathan Bartley, the former Green co-leader, said there was room for localised “non-aggression pacts” between left-wing parties.
“These arrangements can happen on a local basis, and the local Green parties have a lot of power,” said Bartley.
“Labour has been very centrally controlled. I would hope Andy Burnham, with his support for PR, would change that if he is prime minister.”
All the parties were approached for comment.
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