Nigel Farage wasn’t exactly standing in front of a field of wheat in this morning’s video pastorale. But he might as well have been. There were Theresa May vibes coming off him as he talked. An admission from a broken man that he was “disappointed”.
Speaking directly to both the camera and Restore voters – as if it were a new incarnation of those Cameo birthday greetings he used to sell – Farage begged to know why they had abandoned his Reform UK party with a plaintive, pitiful “what do you WANT” as he urged them to “think again”.
Look, maybe they simply muddled his party with the newer, nastier version. It’s not like they haven’t already followed Farage through three other iterations of the Ukip name. But maybe Makerfield voters are thinking again. And they’re not coming up with the same answer they did even six weeks ago.
Reform have now lost six by-elections in a row in England, Scotland and Wales. The party that won every seat in Makerfield at the council level watched as Burnham stole a 9,000-plus majority over the hapless Robert Kenyon, a self-confessed sexist with a creepy obsession with Carol Vorderman. It was less the grim social media posts that ultimately sank him and more the fact his own party seemed to find them fine.
The picture was mirrored in Scotland where the Conservatives took first place in Aberdeen South – a victory for Kemi Badenoch’s personal persistence up there and a proof of life for the Tory electoral brand. Both there and in Arbroath, Reform was pushed into third place – coming behind the SNP whose convicted, kleptocratic former CEO Peter Murrell is about to go to actual jail.
And there was more last night. In Rochford and Essex, the two councils previously held by Reform, went Tory, losing a 15 per cent share of the vote each time. Reform is a party that – on paper at least – walks tall. Their national poll rating remains between 24 and 26 per cent. But the personal approval rating of Farage is minus 37. Andy Burnham is +20.
Pause here for a second: that plus sign is a rare symbol in favourability contests. And you can’t argue it’s because he’s unknown. Andy Burnham looks like one of the few politicians right now both recognised and not despised.
His personal brand took him most of the way. But the tactical voting of pretty much all the other parties gave him the scale of success. The Tories lost their deposit in Makerfield. The Lib Dems pulled in just 150 votes – a sort of niche “friends and family” affair nudging them just ahead of the intergalactic Count Binface. But the story this tells is how smart the electorate has become. They all deserted their tribes to keep Reform out of power. Burnham has given them hope the Reform trajectory can be stopped in its tracks. His result last night was a form of electoral smack – deep in the veins of those trying to float above the existential panic of a looming Faragist Britain.
Starmer has tried to claim the shine was already coming off Reform. That Burnham was the lucky recipient of a tide that had already turned. It is the mirror image of the argument Farage himself has used – that the only reason they lost this by-election was because Reform voters chose Labour to remove Starmer.
Technically, there is truth to that thesis. But it misses the bigger picture.
The country is beginning to understand what a Reform government could look like. Whether it’s dodgy crypto, undeclared millions, racially incited protest, or just a pygophilic plumber.
Sir Keir Starmer may be collateral – but this was a vote to act before it is too late.
In the middle of the night, the Labour horse-whisperer Patrick Maguire of The Times told the BBC that a Burnham premiership was now nailed-on certainty: “All we’re working out now is the choreography.” But choreography of immense power is never simple. It could be hours, days or weeks before the first shot is fired.
As politicos head to bed – and the rest of the country to its heatwave weekend – one pub sign spelled out their own offer: “Come to our beer garden. More shady than Nigel Farage.”
Has Makerfield chosen a way out of that fear?
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