But declaring a return to normal would be a mistake. Indeed, the situation remains anything but. This year’s energy crisis will leave a mark with long-term implications not just for oil markets but across the whole energy sector. "I don't think this is a utopian resolution that says we can just look at ‘normal’ or pre-crisis markets anytime soon,” says Arjun Murti, a partner at Veriten, an energy research investment and strategy firm. This will be “measured in years,” Murti says, “not months or weeks."
In other words, this isn’t the end, though it may be the end of the beginning.
For companies in the oil and gas sector, Murti says, this may mean building a fortress balance sheet that can weather disruptions. The crisis also provides a business logic for continued consolidation in the industry. Bigger players with diversified operations can simply navigate challenges better.
“Everyone wants to know where prices settle out,” Murti says. “I continue to think that is just not the right perspective.”
Expect similar changes in the policy landscape, particularly in the hardest hit regions. Across southeast Asia, governments have raced to facilitate deployment of electric vehicles and other fuel-efficiency measures. Lower prices may slow the urgency, but it’s unlikely to stem the efforts.
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