The nation could have a new prime minister within weeks after Andy Burnham won the Makerfield by-election – beating his Reform opponent Robert Kenyon by more than 9,000 votes.
Burnham is unlikely to make any immediate moves against Sir Keir Starmer, however. He is likley to spend Friday in the constituency before travelling to London on Monday where he will be officially sworn into Parliament – by taking the oath of allegiance to the Crown.
Only then can he take part in full Parliamentary proceedings.
Team Burnham‘s preferred option will be for a swift coronation, hoping Starmer will step down and rival contender Wes Streeting will not challenge. But they will also be braced for a drawn-out leadership fight if Starmer digs in or Streeting wants to fight it out.
Here’s the most likely scenario for what happens next.
This weekend: battle lines are drawn
Burnham could take Starmer’s top job quite quickly, depending on the mood within the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP).
This weekend will be telling, with the Makerfield result expected to trigger calls for Starmer to set out a resignation timetable, and for former health secretary Wes Streeting to stand aside to give Burnham a clear path to No10.
The PM has offered Burnham a “big part” in Government but allies of the new Makerfield MP have said he wouldn’t serve in a Starmer cabinet.
But the Burnham has made it clear that he is only after the biggest role there is – Prime Minister.
Streeting looks set to block a Burnham coronation, telling journalists he could trigger a leadership contest as early as next week and insisting he has the backing of enough Labour MPs.
Under Labour Party rules, any MP who wants to challenge a sitting party leader must first be nominated by at least 20 per cent, or a fifth, of the PLP, which is currently 81 MPs.
They must also be backed by at least five per cent of all local branches or at least three party-affiliated groups, two of which must be unions.
This weekend could also see a stalking horse candidate announced to set the ball rolling and test the strength of a leadership bid for others.
In May, Labour MP Catherine West appeared to use this tactic when she threatened to force a leadership challenge following Labour’s disastrous local election results.
She later U-turned and decided not to canvas for the 81 MPs needed to trigger a formal revolt, but it did open the door to Streeting’s resignation days later.
Burnham takes his seat in Parliament
By Monday, the mood within the PLP will be increasingly clear, meaning it will be easier to predict whether we will see a Burnham coronation within days, or a weeks-long leadership battle.
He is likely to arrive at Euston Station in London, surrounded by press and photographers.
But before Burnham can vote on laws, speak in debates – or trigger a leadership contest – he must complete a formal introduction process in the House of Commons chamber.
This involves standing at the entrance with two sponsors, which will typically be two other Labour MPs, and taking the Oath of Affirmation to the Crown.
After signing the Test Roll, which is a historic parchment, he will shake the Speaker’s hand as he is formally welcomed to the Commons.
That evening, he is likely to attend at his first PLP meeting, arriving with a guard of honour of supporters, who will usher him in. Who he arrives with could be indicative of the major players in a potential Burnham administration.
A leadership battle could lead to a new PM within weeks
Once the new Makerfield MP has taken his seat in Parliament, all eyes will turn to Streeting, who has repeatedly committed to waiting for his Labour colleague’s return to Westminster to commence a leadership battle.
He told reporters earlier this week he wanted to give the PM space “over the weekend” to reflect on his position and set out a timetable for departure.
But if Starmer refuses to step down, Streeting has suggested that a formal challenge would be launched next week, claiming he has the support of 81 MPs to do this.
Once this has been announced, it could either trigger a swathe of resignations from the Cabinet in a bid to force Starmer’s resignation. But according to reports, Burnham has asked the Cabinet not to do this, in order to maintain government stability.
At this stage, other leadership hopefuls could announce their bid to run – but they would need to secure the numbers.
The Socialist Campaign Group – the left-wing faction of Labour – is understood to still be making a decision over whether to put forward its own candidate to widen the debate.
Other candidates could include ex-Royal Marine Al Carns, who quit his job as armed forces minister earlier this month over defence spending.
Former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner and the current Energy Secretary Ed Miliband have also been touted as possible contenders, but both hinted they would fall in line behind Burnham.
A Bunrham coronation could see a new PM within days
Once Burnham enters the fray, the spotlight shifts onto Starmer to decide whether to fight on or step down.
If the PM is still standing his ground at this stage, he must decide whether to declare once again that he will fight to defend his position or to stand aside.
As the current Labour leader he is automatically in any race, and does not need to find 81 backers.
A full contest would be decided by a ballot of Labour Party members with a campaign possible throughout the summer, with the winner announced at the Labour Party conference in September.
Sources say Burnham has already been building alliances with certain sections of the PLP, hoping to secure their backing.
The i Paper previously reported that preparations are underway for a Burnham challenge within a fortnight, with his allies claiming he already has the 81 MPs needed ready to go.
By the end of next week, it should be clear whether Burnham will glide unopposed into the leadership within the coming days, or face a fierce “battle of ideas” for the keys to No10.
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