The details of Donald Trump’s ceasefire deal with Iran have now been released, and it’s exactly what we expected. Trump got nothing of any significance. And a surprising group of people are now admitting this—Trump’s MAGA allies. Some Fox News figures and right-wing media figures are taking apart the deal in surprisingly harsh terms. Meanwhile, Trump let out a few tirades today attacking Barack Obama’s 2015 nuclear deal, even though all indications thus far are that Trump has fared substantially worse than Obama did.
We’re working through all of it with Sina Toossi, an Iran expert at the Center for International Policy. Sina, good to have you on.
Sargent: So both sides have released the agreement. Here’s the short version. Strait of Hormuz reopened with no charge for passage, but that’s only for 60 days. U.S. blockade lifted—a victory for Iran. Iran also gets relief from sanctions. Iran reaffirms it won’t procure or develop nuclear weapons, which it has already said in many other instances. The U.S. is working with regional partners to open up $300 billion in reconstruction aid to Iran.
Toossi: Yeah, so I think the most important thing is that this is not a nuclear deal. We’re already seeing comparisons to the Obama-era nuclear deal, the 2015 deal. This makes no nuclear obligations of Iran. That most critical issue has been deferred to this 60-day period of negotiations. And what this deal really is, is just a framework deal outlining the ostensible end of this war.
Most significantly, these oil waivers to sell oil during this period of negotiations, as well as access to its own frozen money that’s been frozen due to sanctions, as well as a region-wide ceasefire, including Lebanon. And these are major upfront concessions that Iran is now receiving as a result of this war.
Toossi: Yeah, absolutely. I mean, it straight up says that there’s this $300 billion investment fund. It’s worth being skeptical about whether that will actually materialize. But what Trump has agreed to right now is, yeah, on paper, such an investment fund is being created. And for a deal that was already on the table in the past that he left—and then he launched his dumb war and only created this big quagmire.
The deal now requires Iran to dilute its enriched material but doesn’t require it to ship the material out of the country—and that was in Obama’s deal, right? And so now the details on the constraints on Iran’s nuclear program have to be negotiated. Is that about the size of it? And what’s your take on all that?
And in this February track, we actually had this British national security advisor who was there. And he himself said that the deal was basically at hand. And the Omani intermediary at this time said that it was at hand too. But yeah, basically the contours of this deal, much like the JCPOA, seem to be Iran accepting more intrusive transparency mechanisms, inspections mechanisms, committing to get rid of its large stockpiles of enriched uranium. So right now it has 60 percent enriched uranium.
But yeah, it’s basically a very intrusive compromise nuclear deal to enhance the transparency of the nuclear program. But it is a compromise. It’s not like they’re destroying their nuclear capabilities, giving up their nuclear capabilities. They’re still going to be allowed to, much like the JCPOA, operate a basic nuclear program. And the Iranians are very intent on what they say is their rights within the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty to basically produce their own nuclear fuel.
Sargent: I just want to pick up on one thing you said there because it’s so batshit insane. We could have had this set of negotiations before the war started. I think people don’t really realize how absurd Trump’s handling of this has really been. Just one more time—Iran and the U.S. were talking about this stuff before Trump launched the war. And it probably wasn’t out of the realm of possibility for them to have negotiated to the very point we are at now without the war happening. Is that right?
At the end of it, what do we get? According to The New York Times and other outlets that have reported on this, 70 percent of Iranian ballistic missiles are intact. Some similar amount of drones. Their underground missile cities, their ability to hit back in the region, close the Strait of Hormuz.
And now he’s giving Iran upfront sanctions relief, trying to get them to let go of the Strait of Hormuz, and is seemingly on a path to accepting a deal that was at hand before the war.
The New York Post says this: “Trump’s Iran deal gives Iran big wins up front—and America nothing.”
Fox News’ Brian Kilmeade suggested that parts of the nuclear settlement here are, quote-unquote, “not acceptable” while trying to throw JD Vance under the bus for this failure.
Sina, what do you make of all that?
But I think Trump is ultimately sitting in the situation room. He’s been hit with political, economic, military, and geopolitical reality. It’s not like Donald Trump was someone who—if he could go all the way with Iran, he would have gone all the way with Iran. And he said today at the G7 that, I could have bombed them for many more years. What would have happened is the Strait of Hormuz would still have been shut and we would have been in a global depression.
And it racked up this immense cost with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, all the knock-on economic effects, the impact on global markets, the impact on global oil reserves, including America’s oil reserve—the latest headlines are that it’s reached the lowest level since 1984, the year it was established. And so this is a critical crisis. And I think Trump is right when he said if this dragged on, it would have led to a recession, a depression.
Sargent: Well, Fox News’ Trey Gowdy had another quote criticizing Donald Trump. He said this: Iran is “better off than they were before hostilities began, and that should not be the consequence of war.”
The White House and Donald Trump are trying to sell the story that the great and mighty and glorious Donald Trump subjugated Iran. All of his enemies are always on the run and they’re always losing and he’s always winning. And that’s why I think it’s so lethal for him to have all these figures in right-wing media saying, no, that didn’t happen. Actually, you lost, Donald Trump. And so I think that’s good to see.
But now you’re seeing that JD Vance went on Megyn Kelly’s show yesterday and he’s doing the media circuit. So it’s like he’s going to need those people at his back again. So I think he’s going to have to get Tucker back. He’s going to have to get Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens—all these various right-wing personalities that were critical to his rise, but were critical of this war, as opposed to that Fox News traditional Republican establishment machinery that is very much against this deal and is coming out against it.
I want to listen to a couple of things that Donald Trump said about Obama’s nuclear deal. First, he said this.
And he also said this.
Sargent: So, Sina, what do you make of that? I mean, there’s just no indication whatsoever that Donald Trump has any idea what was in Obama’s 2015 deal. All he knows is that he’s strong and Obama’s weak. That’s all he knows.
But Obama’s signature foreign policy achievement was the Iran nuclear deal. And when Trump came to office in his first term, all his advisors were saying, don’t leave this deal. At the time we had Mattis as secretary of defense, we had McMaster as national security advisor.
And so now you see all these years later—2018 was when he left the deal—but now in 2026, after this disastrous war, his marketing pitch for this deal is still, it’s better than Obama’s, Obama was so weak, the Iranians were laughing at him, et cetera, et cetera. When the Iranians are the ones who fought him in a war and basically had him by the balls, if I can say that. And he’s backed off.
Sargent: Well, let’s just try to look forward to what comes now. They enter into this stretch of negotiations in which they try to figure out what the details of the constraints on Iran’s nuclear program are going to be. And it looks to me like Trump is not in a very good position here.
But second, and also important, is the fact that every day that passes, we get closer to the midterm elections. And Trump keeps going out there and saying, if Iran doesn’t do what I say, I’ll just start bombing again. That’s pure bullshit, because that will be something that Republicans really do not want as the midterms are approaching.
And so Iran’s got to know this, right? Iran’s got to understand these dynamics pretty well, don’t you think?
Even as part of this deal, the Iranians are saying they’re not going to collect payments for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz in the 60-day period. But very much the Iranian rhetoric and this deal leaves an opening for that. They’re saying that the new status quo is going to be them collecting service fees, and they’re going to administer it with Oman.
This is kind of a temporary arrangement for now that achieves some interests on both sides. I mean, Trump just wants his Strait of Hormuz open. The average gas price in America was almost $5 a gallon just a couple of weeks ago. And all the inflation went back to as bad as it was under Biden during the Ukraine war. And so all these bad economic consequences that, as you say, were going to have a big consequence for the midterms.
Maybe they could be thinking third time’s a charm. And that’s definitely what the most hawkish groups in D.C. are saying. People like Mark Dubowitz at the neoconservative, pro-Israel Foundation for Defense of Democracies—he’s basically saying, third time’s a charm, try it again, do it again.
Sargent: And you know what happens next year, if there’s discussion about another war or the negotiations of the nuclear deal continue? JD Vance is starting to run for president in earnest and he’s really not going to want to be associated with those positions. Sina Toossi, really good to talk to you. Thanks so much for coming on.
Toossi: Thanks for having me. This was great.
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