What we know so far about Trump’s deal – and the issues that could doom it ...Middle East

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The presidents of the United States and Iran have both officially signed a ceasefire agreement to end their more than 100-day war, although that didn’t stop Donald Trump from continuing to threaten Tehran.

Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian formally signed the deal – which is set to reopen the pivotal Strait of Hormuz – in both English and Farsi, while Trump was attending the G7 summit in Evian-les-Bains in France.

The agreement was due to be signed at an official ceremony in Switzerland on Friday but the White House and Iranian state media confirmed it had been signed early.

President Donald J. Trump has SIGNED the Iran Memorandum of Understanding at Versailles in France. pic.twitter.com/JQ6qlbvFAF

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) June 17, 2026

In a video posted on X by the White House, Trump was seen seated at a table next to French President Emmanuel Macron, signing a copy of the agreement. Trump then handed the document to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio as people in the room applauded.

Officials in both countries say the ceasefire is now in effect, while negotiators work on a permanent truce over the coming 60 days, which Trump said he hoped would usher in peace in the Middle East and lower oil prices.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi speaking about the agreement reached with the United States (Photo: AFP/Getty)

What is in the deal?

The deal includes an immediate end to the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon, where Israel is battling Iran-backed Hezbollah.

Other conditions include the full resumption of maritime traffic “with no charge” in the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of a US blockade of Iranian ports, the ‌waiving of US sanctions on Iran, the unfreezing of its assets, and a $300bn (£225.2bn) investment fund for Tehran’s post-war reconstruction.

Iran has also agreed not to build nuclear weapons and to the “down-blending” – or reduction – of its stockpile of enriched uranium under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

This will take place within Iran, which is a win for Tehran, as Trump had wanted to take it out of the country.

Trump also withdrew at least one of his stated rationales for attacking Iran in the first place, saying it would be “unfair” for Tehran not to have ballistic missiles, having previously vowed to obliterate them.

“I’m saying that if other countries have them, it’s a little bit unfair for them not to have some,” Trump told reporters.

People gather for anti-US and anti-Israel demonstrations in Tehran (Photo: Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu)

What is being said about the deal?

Speaking at a press conference in France after the signing, Trump remained bellicose in spite of the deal. “We’re going to ⁠bomb the hell out of them if they violate the agreement,” Trump said. “I don’t want them to. I want them to honour the agreement.

“If I don’t like it, if they don’t behave, we’ll go right back to dropping bombs right smack in the middle of their head, OK?”

Iranian officials seemed positive after the agreement was signed. “Everything we sought to achieve through military ⁠action, we obtained several times over through negotiation; it was not even comparable,” Iran’s lead negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf told state television.

What could be the impact of the agreement?

The US and Israel launched the war on Iran on 28 February, assassinating the 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and military leaders on the first day.

It quickly spiralled into a regional conflict that has killed more than 7,000 people, mostly in Iran and Lebanon; driven up energy prices; renewed inflationary pressures and sparked concerns about a major food supply ⁠crisis.

Oil prices fell on the announcement of the agreement, according to US TV network CNBC, with international benchmark Brent crude futures for August dropped 1.13 per cent to $78.65 (£59.10) a barrel.

What are the main issues facing a ceasefire?

Dr Carla Winston, a senior lecturer in international relations at the University of Melbourne in Australia, says the jury is out as to whether the ceasefire will hold.

“It might, but that will depend on how both parties respond to (either) Israel or Hezbollah’s likely violation of the ceasefire,” Winston told The i Paper.

“It is not in [Israeli President] Benjamin Netanyahu’s interest to stop targeting Hezbollah within Lebanon [because] there will be an election in Israel in a few months which will decide Netanyahu’s fate.

“Hezbollah is backed by Iran, but it is its own organisation and Iran does not have full operational control, so it is not hard to imagine local commanders taking advantage of an opportunity even if it violates Iran’s orders.”

Hezbollah supporters gather at the tomb of former Hezbollah secretary-general Hasan Nasrallah earlier this week (Photo: Houssam Shbaro/Anadolu)

Winston said the deal generally favoured Iran, and called the lifting of sanctions, including those imposed by the UN Security Council, “a major win, even if it is unclear that the United States is actually legally able to do this”.

Then there is the Strait of Hormuz, which has effectively been closed since the start of the war, choking off around 20 per cent of the world’s oil supply and driving up energy prices.

“The Strait will be technically open very quickly, but the amount of actual traffic through it will depend,” said Winston. “Ships and their cargoes are insured, and they don’t move if the insurance risk is too high, so actual traffic depends on lowering the risk level sufficiently.”

Earlier this week, a leading Japanese shipping executive said it may take up to a month to restore traffic in the Strait to pre-war levels.

The chief executive ⁠of Japan’s Mitsui OSK Lines, Jotaro Tamura, said that his industry needs to be sure that the agreement was “material”.

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