Some Cubs prospect items for you while you await the Cubs series finale against the Rockies …
In his media availability, Jed Hoyer touched on a few prospect items of note. The most newsy of which was 2025 first round pick Ethan Conrad, who has been out since the spring with a back injury and has yet to make his professional debut: as of a week ago, things were progressing well with Conrad, and Hoyer said the hope is that he could get into games by the end of this month. That would give him a few months thereafter to have at least half of a season in his pro debut, and that might be enough developmentally for him this year. That part’s pretty hard to say until he gets out there and stays healthy enough to play almost every day, but at least there’s now a very rough timeline to dream on. To date, we hadn’t even had that! On another 2025 outfield draft pick, Hoyer shared the organizational excitement about Josiah Hartshorn, and mentioned that when a prospect really explodes like he has, it can buoy the spirits of the whole organization. The scouting group feels good, the player development group feels good. I thought that was a good point, since we as fans pretty much exclusively focus on the performance/development/impact/future for the player, himself. But there are softer benefits, too, in seeing something of a “reward” for the hard work of the organization. Hopefully Hartshorn keeps on rewarding them. No, he’s not on the big league radar yet, but yes, eventually you do start talking about what more you need to see from him before he gets to this step or that step in his ascent. Although Hoyer wasn’t talking this specifically, I think we can reasonably infer that, at some point this year, the Cubs may be confronted by the possibility that Hartshorn may need a bump to Double-A … which is absolutely nuts for a 19-year-old prospect in his pro debut. The Baseball America pod had a long section on Cubs catching prospect Owen Ayers, and it’s funny how much the discussion sounds exactly like what most Cubs fans have been experiencing all year: the rapidity of the pop since the AFL, his age and lack of prospect pedigree before this year, the super duper extreme extent of his offensive breakout, and the question of how much more you need to see before really buying into him as a very rare kind of prospect breakout. Their conclusion for now looks a lot like ours: you can’t not consider this guy a top-ten prospect in the system at this point, and it isn’t insane to wonder at what point he gets top-100 overall consideration. HOWEVER, you’d still need to see him do it for another month+ before you could get there, because the sample is still relatively small. But the results, the batted ball metrics, the solid defense behind the plate? It’s all been “real” this year. Importantly, there do seem to have been some real developments on the swing since Ayers’ college days, when he lasted until the 19th round in the draft. The max exit velo hasn’t changed much, but because he’s staying back better, Ayers is getting to his higher-end exit velo more consistently than he used to. You like to see developments like that, because they do feel a little more sustainable than if it’s just a matter of results ticking up, but nothing new to which you can point to support them. There are some examples of guys having this extreme of a switch-flip in their productivity year-to-year in the minor leagues, but they are very few and far between (there’ve been only about 26 in the last decade that they could find with comparable improvements). That group is a mixed bag in outcomes – some guys became MLB-caliber starting players, others had that one huge year and then fell right back after – but Owen Ayers is helped tremendously by the floor his catching ability creates. The thinking is that he WILL be a big leaguer in one way or another, and it’s just a question of role. Thanks in equal part to there being so many big offensive breakouts on the farm this year and to a profile that isn’t maybe as exciting as the other outfield prospects in the system, I have been remiss in not mentioning Brett Bateman much this year. The 24-year-old Iowa Cubs outfielder is hitting .288/.430/.367/117 wRC+ with a 20.7% BB rate and a 19.6% K rate, and the .079 ISO is the highest of his minor league career. He had a slow start at the new level, but even going all the way back to April 22 (following four days off, for what that’s worth), Bateman has hit .324/.460/.419/136 wRC+. So why don’t we hear about him more? Well, because it’s a speed and defense profile, without a lot of power to support that level of walk rate in the big leagues, his production will always be super BABIP-dependent, in a way that often gets crushed in the big leagues (while the strikeouts tick up, too). But it’s important to remember with him that we’re not talking about projecting Bateman as a future impact starter in the big leagues – instead, it’d be great if he became a quality 4th/5th outfielder who can give you spot starts, come off the bench for defense and speed, and fill in passably enough if there are shorter-term injuries. Sure seems like he’s having a great season in that respect, no? With outfield innings about to pop up after this season (each of Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, and Michael Conforto are free agents), it’s nice to know there’s an in-house option for outfield depth. Reliever prospect Kenyi Perez went off lately at South Bend (59.1% K rate in his last 8 games LOL), so he just got himself bumped to Double-A Knoxville. He’ll turn 25 in August, and hasn’t put it all together yet (despite having good stuff), but obviously he’s now at a level where things can move very quickly for a reliever. Reportedly has one of the highest-spin sliders in all of baseball. Also in that Knoxville bullpen: Tyler Ras, 26, was a free agent signing before the season after not quite making it in the Rockies and Astros’ systems. He is in his first go at Double-A, and, after a rocky start, hasn’t allowed a run since April. In that time, he’s got a 28.4% K rate and a 7.4% BB rate over 22.1 innings. If there’s any belief there by the Cubs, he’ll probably see Iowa soon. Brody McCullough is finally back on a rehab assignment in Arizona, and, although I won’t get my hopes up after three mostly-lost years, he was a legit pitching prospect who was rapidly ascending to MLB before the injuries started. It’s early and the sample sizes are so small as to ALMOST not be worth a comment, but I couldn’t not pass on: the Cubs are having some really eye-opening performances in the early going in the Dominican Summer League, including two of the top-16 wRC+ coming from guys who are only 17 years old: Enrique Oropeza is hitting .452/.581/.871/221 wRC+ over 43 PAs (2nd in the DSL), and Johan Geraldo is hitting .389/.522/.639/178 wRC+ over 46 PAs (tied for 16th). This is out of 232(!) positional prospects in the league who’ve reached 40 PAs. Another 17-year-old, Luis Thomas, is 29th. Meanwhile, fellow 17-year-old prospect Freiker Betencourt is already in Arizona holding his own in the ACL (.211/.398/.355/101 wRC+, but better lately). He debuted last year in the DSL at 16, hit a bit, and got the Stateside invite this year. So he’s a name to watch. For context, Jefferson Rojas did not arrive in the ACL until he was 18 … of course, in his case, he lasted just one game and was promoted to Low-A at 18. But, hey, a guy like Betencourt could match that progression by reaching Myrtle Beach next year. The big league Cubs are off tomorrow, so Marquee will be hosting a whole lot of prospect content tomorrow evening:The future is bright ?More Cubs farm system content is coming your way ? on Road to Wrigley LIVE tomorrow @ 6pm pic.twitter.com/chrvocSmIC
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