ROCHESTER, N.Y. – We have issued a Yellow Alert that starts tonight and lasts through Thursday for strong winds and a chance of thunderstorms.
Before then however, we’re Green during the day today with nothing particularly impactful in our forecast. There will be a few passing morning showers, as well as a chance of some isolated thunder the middle of this afternoon. But for the vast majority of the day, skies will just be partly cloudy. Highs will be in the mid 70s and winds will be light.
Over in the Midwest today, things will be quite different – An outbreak of severe weather including damaging winds and violent tornadoes is expected. This incredibly unstable weather will make its way towards us, but it will weaken as it approaches. So, no need to worry about any tornadoes. However, this system will still bring strong winds, rain, and thunder at times.
This will be a one-two punch with the first strong winds coming ahead of the low pressure center, being overnight out of the south, and the second coming behind the low pressure center, during the day Thursday out of the west-southwest.
Wind speeds tonight will depend on whether we see storms, or a more moderate, widespread rain. If it’s the former, strong winds will be able to mix down to the surface, gusting well into the 40 MPH range. This is the less likely outcome.
If the latter, winds will be weaker with maximum gusts around 30 MPH. This is more likely.
We are much more confident about wind speeds during the day Thursday, as they will be driven by a rapid change in air pressure instead of depending on storm presence. Wind gusts will be around 45 MPH, perhaps up to 50 MPH, which could cause tree damage and power outages. Winds will weaken by sunset.
Besides the wind, thunderstorms are another threat. Whether or not we get any thunder overnight, we are likely to see some storms around the region Thursday morning. Then, as the wind shifts and strengthens out of the west-southwest, more showers and storms are likely through the afternoon. But again, it’s the wind that is the MAIN threat.
Friday we go back to Green on the Threat Tracker, but it will still be breezy out with gusts up to 30 MPH. There will also be more chances for showers in the afternoon. The weekend is looking dry and comfortable with a bit of a breeze on Saturday.
Stay tuned for updates on the forecast.
First Alert Weather: Yellow Alert tonight – Thursday for strong winds and chance of thunderstorms WHEC.com.
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