Maybe we’ve been misunderstanding Donald Trump this entire time. For more than a decade, the US President has been railing against Barack Obama’s “terrible” Iran nuclear deal time and again.
Obama had persuaded Iran to delay any nuclear enrichment activities for at least 10 years, and dramatically reduce its existing stocks of enriched uranium. In exchange, many US sanctions against the country would be lifted, and it would be allowed to use financial assets previously frozen or seized by the USA.
Trump had almost constantly attacked the deal, but focused in particular on a flight returning $400m (£298m) of previously frozen funds to Iran. “It’s so sad, so disgusting,” Trump said in one of his many interventions on the topic. We had all assumed that Trump was outraged at the idea of the US sending money to Iran, even if the money had been Iran’s in the first place.
But as the details of Trump’s own peace deal with Iran emerge, it seems like that can’t have been the case. Not only does Trump’s deal appear to unfreeze billions of dollars of Iran’s money, but the proposals include plans for a $300bn (£223bn) “reconstruction fund” for Iran, funded by the USA and its allies.
That’s a package 750 times bigger than the Obama deal, and this time it wouldn’t be money that had technically belonged to Iran the entire time. Iranian state media is even provocatively referring to the money as “reparations” for Trump’s war.
At present, Trump’s deal doesn’t commit Iran to any solid action on its nuclear enrichment programme, even as it promises Iran far more than Obama ever did. So, what can we conclude from that? Clearly, we must have misunderstood Trump’s objection to the Obama deal: maybe he just didn’t think it was generous enough to Iran. He certainly seems to have fixed that.
There is no way to view the tentative deal Donald Trump has struck with Iran other than as an utter humiliation for Trump, and by extension for America itself. Even the typically cautious editorial board of The New York Times put it starkly in their own verdict on the matter: “President Trump Lost This War”.
Trump started his misadventure in Iran talking about reshaping the region, changing the regime, and encouraging a popular uprising in Iran. He is now trying to sign a peace deal that would involve billions of dollars of payments to a newly entrenched and emboldened Iranian regime, with none of the USA’s war aims anywhere close to achieved.
The escapade might be the most glaring US defeat overseas since Vietnam, albeit thankfully with a much shorter time frame and a vastly lower death toll – but perhaps with similarly seismic effects on the US worldview, and its sense of its place in the world over time.
In reality, all of us need the US-Iran war to be over. So far, it has only shown up in most of our lives in the form of higher fuel and energy prices, and food becoming slightly more expensive. But that’s because countries around the world have been burning through their strategic oil and gas reserves to prevent the shortfalls the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would usually cause. This has been helped by the war taking place in late spring, rather than the dead of winter.
Reserves only last for so long, however, and they are already starting to run short. Oil and gas production can take weeks or months to ramp back up to normal levels. If we are to avoid an economic calamity – and the very real prospect of people in lower-income countries freezing to death this winter – we all need this conflict to be over.
That leaves Trump’s critics on the horns of a dilemma. The honest response to Trump’s deal is that it is among the worst ever signed by a US president in the modern political era. It is almost comically terrible for America. If any Democratic president – or any normal Republican – tried to sign it, they would be spurned by Congress. Frankly, they might even face impeachment.
Luckily for Trump, he is no normal president, and the world wants this conflict to be over just as much as he does. Trump himself seems willing to end the Iranian war at virtually any price, as his willingness to sign this awful deal shows.
That leaves the rest of us with a dilemma: Trump is a volatile and egotistical man. If he sees enough coverage mocking him and his deal, he might just rip it up rather than look weak in public. So, is it for the best if Fox News and the Trump media bubble flatters Trump and his deal, in the hope that it sticks?
Such is the nature of life under a Trump presidency. Is it even worth saying the emperor has no clothes, if pointing it out will only cause yet another tantrum?
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