The framework peace deal agreed by the US and Iran marks the failure of the US-Israel attack launched 15 weeks ago to eliminate Iran as a significant political and military power in the Middle East. Instead, the war is ending with Iran in a stronger position politically, diplomatically and militarily than it was prior to the conflict that began on 28 February.
The US and Israel started their campaign with the objective of shifting the regional balance of power decisively in their favour, through regime change in Tehran and by eliminating Iran’s nuclear programme and missiles. Despite the assassination of its leaders, the regime has survived, gained control of the Strait of Hormuz and is still able to fire ballistic missiles and drones at Israel and the Arab oil states in the Gulf.
If the preset framework or memorandum of understanding (MOU) and subsequent negotiations go ahead as planned, Donald Trump will be accepting a reshaping of the Middle East in which US and Israeli influence is reduced. Arab oil states in the Gulf, which until recently were getting closer to Israel, are now busily seeking improved relations with Iran. In Lebanon, Israeli actions will be restricted by US pressure and the risk of Iranian missiles being fired at Israel.
Typically, Trump is seeking to portray his war – given the codename “Operation Epic Fury” – as a world-beating success, but Aaron David Miller, a former US official and Middle East negotiator, dismisses this, saying on Monday that “Epic Fury has been an epic disaster”.
The MOU, to be signed in Switzerland on Friday, will extend the ceasefire for 60 days, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the American blockade of Iranian ports. The exports of oil and gas from the Gulf, a fifth of the world’s total, will once again flow freely. This includes oil exports from Iran, an important factor because Iran needs to alleviate the grim economic conditions under which 92 million Iranians are living after decades of increasingly severe economic sanctions.
A crucial test for the MOU will be Trump’s willingness and ability to force Israel to comply with a ceasefire in Lebanon. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council says that the war must end “permanently and immediately on all fronts, including in Lebanon”. The destructive impact of the war has been greater in Lebanon than in Iran, with some 3,700 Lebanese killed and 1.4 million forced to flee.
Unlike previous Trump announcements about an imminent peace deal that proved delusory, this one has been confirmed by Iran and by both Pakistan and Qatar, who act as mediators between the two sides. But, given Trump’s track record of reinterpreting agreements in his own interests, the Iranians deeply distrust what he says and will want to see if he will lift the blockade and stop Israeli attacks in Lebanon. Once the MOU begins to be implemented, Iran will negotiate about its nuclear programme and its 440kg stockpile of 60 per cent enriched uranium.
Iran will lift mines from the Strait of Hormuz during the next 30 days, enabling the 1,550 vessels trapped in the Gulf by the war to escape. Iran will not charge tolls to ships passing through the Strait during the extended 60-day ceasefire, but in the longer term, Iran – having discovered that control of the Strait gives it huge leverage internationally – is going to keep control of the Strait. It can shut it at any time if it believes that Trump is not implementing the MOU, so tanker owners – and their insurers – will have doubts about risking their vessels in the Gulf in case they get trapped once again.
Trump will highlight Iran, confirming that it will not procure or develop nuclear weapons, though it has been saying this for years. The two sides will talk about Tehran’s enriched uranium stockpile, one option being to dilute it on site in Iran with the International Atomic Energy Agency monitoring the process.
Although Trump focuses on the nuclear issue – absurdly claiming that he has thwarted a near-imminent Iranian nuclear attack on Israel – he has not gone far beyond the safeguards against Iran making a nuclear bomb in former US president Barack Obama’s nuclear deal of 2015 (a deal abrogated by Trump in 2018). In strictly realpolitik terms, Iran’s nuclear programme matters less today than it did prior to the war because missiles and drones give Iran dominance not just in the Strait of Hormuz, but over the Gulf as a whole. Arab oil states of the region now understand they are entirely vulnerable to Iranian strikes, from which neither the US nor Israel can defend them.
The greatest uncertainty hanging over any peace deal comes from the fact that the US and Israel went to war together in February, but have since parted ways. Put simply, Trump wants the war to end, while the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu [Bibi] does not, certainly not in Lebanon.
Differences between them are increasingly angry and public: on Sunday, Israel bombed south Beirut, claiming it was in retaliation for a small-scale drone attack into Israel by Hezbollah, the Shia paramilitary group backed by Iran. But this was seen by Trump as a transparent bid to provoke Iran into firing missiles at Israel and thereby disrupting the peace signing.
Trump furiously told Fox News: “Why did Bibi have to make a f**king attack? I was so p**sed off. I let him know. He has no f**king judgement.” Reports of disagreements between the US and Israel have in the past been dismissed as theatre, but these divisions are becoming fundamental.
Netanyahu has failed to achieve any of his goals against Iran and his political opponents, whom he will shortly face in an election, are reminding Israelis of this – and describe the US-Iran deal as a disaster for Israel.
Dreams of Israeli regional hegemony in close alliance with the US, which seemed realistic a few months back, have turned out to be a dangerous delusion.
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