After letting a slim lead slip away in a frustrating 7-5 loss to the Athletics on Saturday, the Colorado Rockies have dropped seven out of their last 10 games. Finding a reliable rhythm feels like a tall order when the pitching staff constantly needs bailing out.
The Athletics, meanwhile, have found their footing by taking four of their last five contests, including the first two of the series against the Rockies. That recent run dragged them right back up to an even .500 record. The A’s are stringing together better at-bats, showing consistent power, and riding the kind of positive momentum that continues to elude Colorado.
To get back in the win column during this 1:05 p.m. MT start at Las Vegas Ballpark, the Rockies have to neutralize an Oakland lineup that just touched them up for 11 hits yesterday.
The Breakdown
The pitching matchup this afternoon features Colorado veteran Tomoyuki Sugano squaring off against Oakland left-hander Jeffrey Springs. Sugano relies heavily on pitching to contact, a dangerous game for a road start in this environment. Over his last ten starts across 51.2 innings, his strikeout rate sits at a meager 4.70 batters per nine innings. He is surviving, averaging a little over five innings per appearance, but he isn’t missing bats. Springs brings his own weaknesses to the mound, as the southpaw has been plagued by the long ball lately. Across his last ten outings and 50.1 innings, Springs is surrendering an astronomical 2.86 home runs per nine innings. When a pitcher leaves that many mistakes over the plate, the damage piles up fast.
The decisive X-factor today is how Sugano’s pitch-to-contact profile holds up against an Athletics offense that’s mashing the ball over the fence. Oakland has blasted 26 home runs over their last ten games, averaging 5.7 runs per contest during that span. The Rockies’ offense is producing a respectable 4.6 runs per game over their last ten, but keeping pace in a potential shootout is a tough ask for a struggling team.
If Colorado wants to fly out of Nevada with a win, Sugano has to locate his pitches down in the zone and somehow keep the ball in the yard. He needs to navigate the middle of Oakland’s order efficiently and give his bullpen a lighter workload. Offensively, the Rockies must exploit Springs’ home-run tendencies early, jumping on his mistakes to build a lead before the Athletics’ power bats have a chance to tilt the ice.
Odds & Lines
Moneyline: Athletics -182 / Rockies +150 Run Line: Athletics -1.5 (-105) / Rockies +1.5 (-115) Over/Under: 14 (Over -110 / Under -110)Our Pick
Backing the Rockies in their current state is a tough sell, but paying the heavy -182 juice on the Athletics’ moneyline offers terrible betting value. The smarter play is looking toward the run line. Oakland’s offense found a serious power stroke recently, giving them a distinct advantage as the game pushes into the late innings.
Colorado’s bullpen is a massive liability, dragging a bloated 5.26 ERA into this matchup. Once Sugano inevitably exits around the fifth or sixth inning, the Athletics’ hitters get a prime opportunity to tee off on a vulnerable relief corps and stretch a tight game into a multi-run lead. Oakland’s own bullpen is much better equipped to hold down the fort with a more stable 4.40 ERA. BetMGM has the Athletics -1.5 at -105, which represents solid value for a team riding real momentum against a reeling, 26-45 Colorado squad.
Pick: Athletics -1.5 (-105)
Player Prop Pick
This afternoon, there is a clear edge in backing Colorado catcher Hunter Goodman to exploit Jeffrey Springs’ glaring vulnerabilities on the mound. As noted earlier, Springs is serving up home runs at an alarming clip, surrendering nearly three per nine innings over his last ten outings. That bodes well for a legitimate power threat like Goodman.
He’s been locked in of late, mashing four home runs with a stellar .611 slugging percentage over his last ten games. Caesars has Goodman’s total bases line set at 1.5, with the over sitting at -141 odds. Given his recent production and the favorable matchup, Goodman is in a favorable spot to cash this ticket with a single swing of the bat.
Pick: Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 Total Bases
Find more of our daily insights and updates on our Colorado Rockies news page.
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Sportradar Content Studio contributed to this story.
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