Perhaps most strikingly, Wes Streeting, until recently Health Secretary and, since his resignation, a vocal critic of Prime Minister Keir Starmer, recently declared that leaving the European Union was a “catastrophic mistake” and went on to argue that Britain’s future lies within Europe. Cue outrage from Brexit supporters and a wave of speculation that a new leader might adopt a far more ambitious approach to relations with the E.U.
Protestors hold placards during an anti-European Union demonstration outside the Houses of Parliament in London, on November 23, 2016. —Ben Stansall—AFP/Getty Images
To understand the U.K.’s E.U. U-turn, it’s worth briefly mapping road which led us to this moment. After the June 23, 2016, referendum vote and a lengthy transition period, Brexit formally occurred in January 2020. The U.K. finally exited the single market just roughly a year later, having negotiated the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), which remains the legal basis for most elements of the bilateral relationship to this day.
So began what came to be known as the “reset,” as the new Government set about tinkering with the deal signed by the former prime minister. Yet this tinkering had its limits. Labour did not revisit the underlying principles behind the TCA—a rejection of a customs union, or membership of the E.U.’s single market, and of the free movement of people.
Over a year on from that summit, there is not much to celebrate. The French can be happy—they secured a 12-year extension to the deal on fisheries that was more than they’d initially demanded. That aside, there has been precious little obvious progress and some notable setbacks. Foremost among the latter was the breakdown of talks over U.K. participation in the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) program intended to accelerate joint defense procurement. The €150 billion price tag attached to the scheme by the E.U. prompted the U.K. to walk away from the talks, revealing the hollowness of the fine rhetoric about the vital importance of shared security interests.
Evidence that things are not going well is provided by the ambiguity shrouding plans for a second U.K.-E.U. summit. The intention, on the U.K. side at least, was that this be an opportunity to announce the deals agreed and lay out a program for future cooperation. The fact that a meeting initially scheduled for May, and then June, is now only tentatively penciled in for July speaks volumes about the current likelihood of progress.
And then, following Labour’s appalling performance in local elections held in May, a leadership contest burst out into the open. Wes Streeting made sure relations with the E.U. would be a key element of the debate. In doing so, he sparked a fevered speculation about whether the U.K. might be gearing up for a step change in its approach to the E.U.—and even considering an application to rejoin.
Wes Streeting, arrives at Downing Street for a cabinet meeting in London, United Kingdom on May 12, 2026. —Thomas Krych—Getty ImagesWill the U.K. attempt to rejoin the E.U.?
We also must be conscious of the fact that Streeting benefited from his bold, if vague, claims. He is widely expected to be a contender for the Labour leadership if and when there is a contest. And the people who ultimately get to decide who the new Labour leader—and therefore the new British Prime Minister—are Labour party members. This group tends to be more pro-European than the population as a whole. Recent polling suggests that 58% of all likely voters wish to rejoin the E.U., but an overwhelming 84% of Labour votes wish the same.
Plus, while a possible leadership contest has certainly spiced up the debate on relations with the E.U., other factors completely independent of Starmer’s tenuous grip on power are conspiring to induce Labour Party MPs to reconsider that relationship.
Second, changes in world politics have led some on the left to conclude that the U.K. should hug its European neighbors closer still. As President Trump undermines the U.S. security guarantee, there is clearly an incentive for Europeans to seek greater autonomy when it comes to security. More broadly, in a world in which the U.S. is seen as increasingly unreliable, some Labour MPs are asking whether the U.K. should also be more “European” in its approach to regulation in areas such as AI, rather than diverging from E.U. rules in an effort to attract American investment.
For a variety of reasons, therefore, conversations are happening in the governing party about whether more can be done to rebuild the U.K.’s relationship with the E.U. But what would a more “ambitious” agenda mean? Here, things get tricky. We know what the U.K. wants. London quite fancies using alignment to secure market access in sectors beyond those currently under negotiation.
Broadly speaking, there are three models to pick from. The U.K. could negotiate a customs union with the E.U. Or it could join the single market. Neither is without significant problems. The former would deprive London of the ability to negotiate its own trade deals and would have relatively little in the way of economic impact anyway. The latter would certainly have a significant economic impact, but it would commit the U.K. to adopting E.U. rules over which it has no say for the whole economy, while also paying large sums for the privilege and signing up again for freedom of movement.
How will the E.U. respond?
If the U.K. does choose to pursue a path towards rejoining the E.U., the question shifts. What does the E.U. make of all this? And what will it cost the U.K.?
Not least, the E.U. will strike a hard bargain pour encourager les autres. That is, it will ensure the U.K. accepts obligations as well as ganing rights in order to underline the benefits of membership to others who might be pondering the benefits of weakening the bloc. Many member state governments are confronting populist insurgents who argue that the E.U. is too powerful and interferes too much in national life. Giving the U.K. some kind of bespoke single market access might encourage member states to demand special treatment. Then there is Switzerland, which has just concluded a renegotiation of its settlement with the E.U., and will be watching negotiations with the U.K. closely to ensure that London does not get anything that Bern was denied.
And what of membership? Should the U.K. apply to join, the E.U. would be obliged by its own treaty to consider the application. But one thing is clear: the kinds of special treatment the U.K. enjoyed when it was a member state (a rebate to its budget contributions, and an opt out from the euro, among others) will simply not be on offer. Wthout Margaret Thatcher’s E.U. budget rebate, the U.K. would likely pay £5 billion a year more for membership than it did before Brexit, which could make selling the idea in the U.K. much more difficult.
The British governing party is pondering its relationship with the E.U. again. And as ever, all available choices involve difficult trade-offs. The status quo comes with an economic cost. Single market membership short of E.U. membership will significantly constrain British autonomy. Rejoining will necessitate difficult negotiations over the terms of re-entry and, doubtless, a heated argument at home.
Whatever the ultimate decision, this much is clear: a decade on from the referendum that led to Brexit, Europe continues to haunt British politics.
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