Delivering by-election leaflets never used to be a blood sport, unless you count dogs nipping fingers through letterboxes. But for one Labour MP campaigning for Andy Burnham, some areas in Makerfield have become no-go-zones.
“We had people telling us to f*** off and get off their estate,” the MP recalled after visiting an area last weekend where turquoise Reform UK posters jostled for space with Restore Britain’s navy branding.
That anger at Labour campaigners is not universal across the constituency near Wigan, with most voters “very friendly” even in some unexpected places. “If there was a Porsche on the driveway, then you were fine. I had a woman who’d only ever voted Tory in her life tell me she was coming out for Andy because she loathes Reform,” the Labour MP said.
With just over a week to go, the strength of the Restore Britain vote looks likely to secure Burnham victory by splitting Reform’s vote. A rare constituency-wide poll circulating internally among Labour staffers and seen by The i Paper shows Rupert Lowe’s ultra-right Restore at 13 per cent, eating into Reform support. Nigel Farage’s party polls at 24 per cent. The survey from earlier this week shows that if combined, this right-wing anti-Burnham vote would stop him returning to Parliament: the King of the North is only scoring 35 per cent.
A Conservative member of the Shadow Cabinet who also visited Makerfield at the weekend said that Restore was benefiting from an “almost exclusively online” campaign. But getting Restore’s supporters to actually cast their ballot would be a bigger ask. “This is the angry, white working-class. Whether they will actually vote is another question,” the Tory told The i Paper.
The Restore vote is coming from disaffected Reform voters, the MP added. “It’s the long-marchers, the purists who are most upset with Farage. It’s anger at letting all those Tories into Reform, but it’s bigger than that. It’s all the compromises he’s had to make,” they said.
Restore leader Rupert Lowe and his supporters rail against what he calls the “relentless creep of radical Islam”. Restore wants the mass deportation of “millions” of illegal migrants, to abolish the asylum system and remove benefits from every foreign national. The murder of Henry Nowak in Southampton by a Sikh with a large ceremonial knife and Monday’s alleged knife attack by a Sudanese refugee in Belfast has done little to allay immigration worries during the campaign.
Among Reform’s Parliamentarians there are mixed views on whether Restore is anything other than a flash in the pan, with its support concentrated in Norfolk where Lowe sits. One Reform MP dismissed the idea that Restore could actually poll more than single figures next Thursday. “Their vote is really soft. It’ll be nowhere near that on the day. I doubt they’ll get over two per cent,” they said.
But ignoring the threat is not a universal approach. “Something important is happening, which is that voters are looking for seriousness and authenticity, and they actually see in Rupert what they don’t see in Nigel [Farage],” a second Reform MP told The i Paper.
“They like Nigel’s energy and optimism, and his sort of punk style. Rupert is more to the right, more of a rabble-rouser. The danger to us is he’s a more plausible version of Reform because he’s new. Rupert is not a very good communicator, he’s not a very good speaker, he is not quick like Nigel, he’s actually quite boring. So, my anxiety is that people think Nigel is old news by virtue of being around for years where they think they have discovered some new brand,” the MP told The i Paper.
The i Paper understands Lowe is also trying to woo former Reform MP James McMurdock, who currently sits as an independent after allegations of financial misconduct, claims which he has denied. Neither Restore Britain nor McMurdock would comment. Farage has also hinted the South Basildon and East Thurrock MP could be allowed back into Reform.
Still, it’s all to play for. About 17 per cent in Makerfield are still undecided, according to the poll. Meanwhile, a surreal self-inflicted by-election to oust the sitting Prime Minister has somehow been successfully spun as a campaign about local issues. The candidates have even been competing to show just how Wigan-centric they are. Asked about their favourite local delicacy the answers ranged from the locally-produced Uncle Joe’s Mint Balls to “chunky steak on a buttered barm”. Burnham championed the “babby’s yed” (baby’s head), a type of steak and kidney pudding.
In Greater Manchester, voters are pretty evenly split on what they think this by-election is all about: 34 per cent think they are voting to choose the best local MP, while 30 per cent think the by-election circus is about whether Burnham should be a national leader. Only 13 per cent think it’s a verdict on Sir Keir Starmer’s government.
Burnham has some reasons to be cheerful. He is the only net-positive candidate, with a +12 rating; Reform’s Robert Kenyon is viewed the most negatively with a net disapproval rating of -14. But there are wider issues that don’t bode well for the future. Even with all his name recognition in the area, Burnham is not recapturing the coalition Starmer managed in 2024. According to the leaked data, he currently holds about 67 per cent of Labour voters who voted for his predecessor Josh Simons, when Starmer delivered his majority.
Starmer has already declared the next general election will be a two-horse race between him and Farage. It’s more likely to be Burnham v Farage in about 400 seats around the country, in a straight Labour-Reform fight.
If Burnham wins next week, he and his supporters will be ecstatic. A win would undoubtedly be a win. Lowe’s current boast is he will stand 650 candidates at the next election, but the first past the post system is unlikely to work in his favour. He’s more likely to be a thorn in Reform’s side and make elections even more unpredictable.
But there is a bigger question for Burnham. If these polling numbers are reflected in the voter return statistics released on 19 June, and he doesn’t manage to get higher than 35 per cent in an election, there is a problem.
Right now, he’s on home ground; a clear favourite with a local link and an insider knowledge of barbaric-sounding meat pies. If he scores that low, how does a future Burnham prime minister convince his party – and more importantly the country – he’s the true scourge of Reform?
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