It’s 28 years since Norway last played at a men’s FIFA World Cup. Despite such a long hiatus, there’s a sense they could be back with a bang this summer.
Every once in a while, a team comes almost from out of nowhere to enjoy practically unimaginable success.
There was Denmark’s victory at Euro ’92 despite not technically qualifying; Greece won Euro 2004 having only ever participated at a World Cup or European Championship twice; Leicester City stunned everyone by winning the Premier League in 2015-16, just their second season since promotion.
Now, what about Norway becoming the most surprising World Cup winners of all time?
Okay, that might sound a little fanciful, but they’ve been widely dubbed ‘dark horses’ ahead of the 2026 World Cup. Whether that’s a positive sign or akin to a kiss of death, only time will tell. But in certain areas of the pitch, they boast almost unrivalled quality, and they sauntered through qualifying with ease.
The 2026 World Cup will be Norway’s first major men’s tournament since Euro 2000, and only their fifth appearance ever at either the World Cup for European Championship. Their pedigree at this level is virtually non-existent compared to most of the tournament favourites – though that is very much at odds with the talent Norway now possess in what must qualify as a ‘golden generation’.
During their impressive qualification campaign, Norway were one of just two teams – with England – to win all of their matches. The Scandinavians finished as the team with the most goals (37) and expected goals (27.2 xG); their 4.6 goals per game was the best average by any European nation in a single World Cup qualifying campaign (4+ matches); they recorded a massive 11-1 win over Moldova, but arguably even more impressive were their 3-0 and 4-1 victories over Italy.
In the process, Norway showed how deadly they can be on the counter-attack, scoring seven goals from fast breaks (counter-attacks starting from the team’s own half with the opposition’s defence at least partly unsorted), at least four more than any other team in the European qualifiers. But no team who score 37 times en route to qualification can be considered purely a counter-attacking team; Ståle Solbakken’s side are also capable of building up patiently, as demonstrated against Italy when they scored their second goal following a sequence comprising 21 passes.
Another notable aspect of their goals was that, despite the high amount, not a single one came from outside the box. Norway rarely pulled the trigger when there was a low probability of scoring, with just 34 their 155 attempts in the qualifiers taken from outside the box. Firstly, that was the second-lowest proportion (21.9%) of any team in the group stage of the European qualifiers, but it also contributed to them having the highest average xG per shot (0.18).
Norway’s attacking output, and their preference to create opportunities in the box rather than attempt hopeful efforts from distance, shouldn’t come as a huge surprise when you consider the talent they have in their squad.
Manchester City’s Jørgen Strand Larsen last started a competitive game for Norway in 2023. During the World Cup qualifiers, he played only 30 minutes as a substitute (scoring against Italy). Strand Larsen might need a fairytale similar to that of Salvatore Schillaci in 1990 – earning a place in the Italy team after scoring off the bench early in the tournament – to become Norway’s star in North America.
It’s not just quality strikers that Norway possess, of course. They also benefit from the creativity of Arsenal’s
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