I know the consensus of the San Francisco 49ers lately has been about some draft whiffs and misses. But man, when they get a hit, they usually get. a. HIT.
Last week, Pro Football Focus made a top-20 list of the most valuable non-1st round draft picks since 2016. Since all but one year in that period falls under Kyle Shanahan’s tenure, it’s interesting that three 49ers made the list: Quarterback Brock Purdy, tight end George Kittle, and linebacker Fred Warner.
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It should surprise no one that those three are on the list. Many may also not be surprised to see Brock Purdy No. 1 on that list. It’s interesting to see the other two in the top-10.
Purdy’s status at the top of this list can’t be put better:
The odds of finding a franchise quarterback outside of the first round are already very slim. But landing one with the last pick in the draft is an extreme statistical anomaly — yet that’s what the 49ers pulled off when they took Purdy four years ago.
While I’ll defend the 49ers’ drafting—to an extent—I will agree that had Purdy not arrived, Shanahan may not have a job after that Trey Lance fiasco. Putting the Lance history aside, who would have thought the last pick in the draft would have us stop holding our breath when the 49ers threw the ball?
“Kittle has been an insanely consistent player,” PFF wrote on the tight end, “Notching at least an 84.7-plus overall PFF grade in eight straight seasons.”
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The injuries to Kittle are disappointing. In fact, we might be looking to Jake Tonges to start the 2026 season, but the fact that he can block and catch can’t be understated. Plus, once you learn more facts about him, you’ll know how good he is.
And then there’s Fred Warner:
In addition to Purdy and Kittle, Warner is another feather in the cap of John Lynch’s numerous mid-to-late-round steals.
Despite being a third-round choice in 2018, Warner has become widely regarded as the best linebacker in the league.
I like that word “numerous,” like the 49ers haven’t done this a few more times over the years. Is it perfect? No, but we might come to think they never do it. If the 49ers were as bad at drafting as we’d make them out to be, they wouldn’t have been in two Super Bowls and fighting for playoff spots every year. We’ve seen bad drafting (Trent Baalke says “hi”).
On the NFC West as a whole. The Los Angeles Rams had one player (Puka Nacua) on the list, while the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks had no one. I don’t necessarily take this as a slight. The Seahawks have a young team that won them a Super Bowl last year, and the Rams have also done well, or they wouldn’t have had a young pass rusher to send to Cleveland in that Myles Garrett fiasco. The difference is that when the 49ers get value, it’s usually S-tier, but it’s oftentimes buried in a sea of picks that didn’t quite pan out. On the flipside, the Seahawks can get some solid value for a lot of what they can get.
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Do the 49ers have draft issues? Sure. Outside of Brock Purdy, those other two value picks came in 2017 and 2018—nearly a decade ago. Meanwhile, someone like Nacua came in 2023. It does help with the “paying older stars” narrative I see some running with. Add Dre Greenlaw, who was drafted in 2019, Trent Williams, etc., and you at least see where some are coming from.
That said, it’s not all-encompassing. While these picks are nearing the 10-year mark, it’s still a good pointer to counter those “The 49ers draft terribly and they have older veterans” takes with “Yeah, because those older veterans are some of the best in the league and were drafted by the 49ers in the first place”. I don’t know if that’s the best counter to make, but it makes some sense.
Are there any other players you think should have made this list?
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